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Political Studies 2224 - Lecture 14: Wrap-Up & Review Sean Clark Ph.D Candidate, Dalhousie University Doctoral Fellow, CFPS Summer Session, 2008 Sean Clark.

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Presentation on theme: "Political Studies 2224 - Lecture 14: Wrap-Up & Review Sean Clark Ph.D Candidate, Dalhousie University Doctoral Fellow, CFPS Summer Session, 2008 Sean Clark."— Presentation transcript:

1 Political Studies Lecture 14: Wrap-Up & Review Sean Clark Ph.D Candidate, Dalhousie University Doctoral Fellow, CFPS Summer Session, 2008 Sean Clark Ph.D Candidate, Dalhousie University Doctoral Fellow, CFPS Summer Session, 2008

2 Origins of Weapons & War Weapons as old as life (nature is violent). 1. Intraspecies violence often enjoys effective constraints. Establish community mastery w/out mortality (ie deer, rattlesnakes, humans). 2. Predation mitigated only by fear & satiation (choose weak & helpless prey). Humans are capable of both, but different in that we select our weapons (instruments to damage or protect). Humans dont just react to, but also learn from environment (= 1st weapons likely learned from animals). Weapons as old as life (nature is violent). 1. Intraspecies violence often enjoys effective constraints. Establish community mastery w/out mortality (ie deer, rattlesnakes, humans). 2. Predation mitigated only by fear & satiation (choose weak & helpless prey). Humans are capable of both, but different in that we select our weapons (instruments to damage or protect). Humans dont just react to, but also learn from environment (= 1st weapons likely learned from animals).

3 Origins of Weapons & War, II Modern humans emerged w/ a weapon in hand. Origins approaches: Genetic research: science still infant. Anthropology: learn from analogies w primates & pre- civ societies (prob: fallacy of contemporary ancestor). Archeology: recovered fragments are strong evidence (sparse record = need imagination). Walking upright is the critical sever from apes. Australopithecus was small, yet unafraid of living & hunting on (predator-filled) savannah grasslands. Vegetarian origins, but hunger & fear likely drove weapons. Tools + hands + bipedalism = formidable hunter. Ingenuity & cooperative cleverness critical, but weapons made the killing possible. Modern humans emerged w/ a weapon in hand. Origins approaches: Genetic research: science still infant. Anthropology: learn from analogies w primates & pre- civ societies (prob: fallacy of contemporary ancestor). Archeology: recovered fragments are strong evidence (sparse record = need imagination). Walking upright is the critical sever from apes. Australopithecus was small, yet unafraid of living & hunting on (predator-filled) savannah grasslands. Vegetarian origins, but hunger & fear likely drove weapons. Tools + hands + bipedalism = formidable hunter. Ingenuity & cooperative cleverness critical, but weapons made the killing possible.

4 Origins of Weapons & War, III Weapons perhaps not 1st tool, but most successful. Is beginning of culture (artificial adaptation over pure physiology: clothes, boats, etc now possible). Late Australopithecus & (subsequent) Homo habilis 1st w/out perpetual fear & hunger (= health & confidence at cost of neighbouring species). 1st weapons likely conveniently shaped rocks & sharp sticks. Sometime later (perhaps 2mil yrs ago), were sharpened purposefully. Hunting = more types available (bone clubs, horn daggers). Bola of Habilis 1.5mil yrs ago (1st w no natural template; 1st standoff wpn). Followed by sling, bow. Weapons perhaps not 1st tool, but most successful. Is beginning of culture (artificial adaptation over pure physiology: clothes, boats, etc now possible). Late Australopithecus & (subsequent) Homo habilis 1st w/out perpetual fear & hunger (= health & confidence at cost of neighbouring species). 1st weapons likely conveniently shaped rocks & sharp sticks. Sometime later (perhaps 2mil yrs ago), were sharpened purposefully. Hunting = more types available (bone clubs, horn daggers). Bola of Habilis 1.5mil yrs ago (1st w no natural template; 1st standoff wpn). Followed by sling, bow.

5 Origins of Weapons & War, IV Standoff missiles (distance = safety; ie bow) vs in- close shock (great strength of blow; ie club, dagger) --> 1st arms debate. Humans relative weakness also overcome by group hunting. Skills for war 1st honed thru group hunting. Concerns of stomach > concerns of neighbours. (Yet intraspecific violence common to most primates). Intraspecific & predation pt of same continuum (either/or dominates, but never disappear). Evidence of early violence (from archeology): Lorenz: humans (& chimps) lack genetic constraints on killing (unlike other predators, began killing late). Dart, Roper: early man violent (33% show wounds). Standoff missiles (distance = safety; ie bow) vs in- close shock (great strength of blow; ie club, dagger) --> 1st arms debate. Humans relative weakness also overcome by group hunting. Skills for war 1st honed thru group hunting. Concerns of stomach > concerns of neighbours. (Yet intraspecific violence common to most primates). Intraspecific & predation pt of same continuum (either/or dominates, but never disappear). Evidence of early violence (from archeology): Lorenz: humans (& chimps) lack genetic constraints on killing (unlike other predators, began killing late). Dart, Roper: early man violent (33% show wounds).

6 Origins of Weapons & War, V Evidence of early tranquility (from anthrop): Most hunter-gather societies very cooperative. Wars restricted to external bands (& lack of surplus = diminished incentive & short wars). Early world relatively empty of humans. Prey migration = constantly moving. Too much land for people to defend. If in feud w neighbour, could always just leave to new place (unlike today). ==> Early fighting therefore sporadic, personalized (revenge, disputes & theft) & probably not very effective. Ambushes & raids likely favoured. Pitched battle = failure (seeking to steal, not crush enemy). Poor organization, weak motivation = low casualties & indecision (though this would soon change). Evidence of early tranquility (from anthrop): Most hunter-gather societies very cooperative. Wars restricted to external bands (& lack of surplus = diminished incentive & short wars). Early world relatively empty of humans. Prey migration = constantly moving. Too much land for people to defend. If in feud w neighbour, could always just leave to new place (unlike today). ==> Early fighting therefore sporadic, personalized (revenge, disputes & theft) & probably not very effective. Ambushes & raids likely favoured. Pitched battle = failure (seeking to steal, not crush enemy). Poor organization, weak motivation = low casualties & indecision (though this would soon change).

7 Dialogue with the Sphinx Early life more about hunting than fighting. Yet as weapons improved, so did deadliness of intraspecific combat (though still no agriculture surplus as incentive for serious war). Proficiency & intelligence = wpns improvements. Flint shaped, spear tips hardened in fire, lashings = effective hand axes and spears. Upper Paleolithic (40,000 yrs ago). Humans reach modern form (& probably speech). Technical takeoff (throwing stick, spear thrower, harpoon, sling, bow). Bow is perfect weapon for harassment. 50m range & lethality velocity = safe & deadly. Morela la Vella: 1st image of combat (men w bows). Early life more about hunting than fighting. Yet as weapons improved, so did deadliness of intraspecific combat (though still no agriculture surplus as incentive for serious war). Proficiency & intelligence = wpns improvements. Flint shaped, spear tips hardened in fire, lashings = effective hand axes and spears. Upper Paleolithic (40,000 yrs ago). Humans reach modern form (& probably speech). Technical takeoff (throwing stick, spear thrower, harpoon, sling, bow). Bow is perfect weapon for harassment. 50m range & lethality velocity = safe & deadly. Morela la Vella: 1st image of combat (men w bows).

8 Dialogue with the Sphinx, II Even w/out true warfare (in era of hunting & not agriculture), the tools were ready. Hunting taught men how to kill in groups. Hunting nurtured the mechanisms of death. Are weapons found within our genes? Physical & behavioural defence mechanisms commonly transmitted thru animal genes. Arms development assisted dexterity, powers of observation (natural selection b/c vital to survival). Near universality of arms (only Phi Tong Luang w/o). Humans arent mindlessly driven like bumble bees, yet while conditioned by environment, inherent predispositions likely exist (interactionist paradigm). Fascination w war toys common, as are useless arms races. Even w/out true warfare (in era of hunting & not agriculture), the tools were ready. Hunting taught men how to kill in groups. Hunting nurtured the mechanisms of death. Are weapons found within our genes? Physical & behavioural defence mechanisms commonly transmitted thru animal genes. Arms development assisted dexterity, powers of observation (natural selection b/c vital to survival). Near universality of arms (only Phi Tong Luang w/o). Humans arent mindlessly driven like bumble bees, yet while conditioned by environment, inherent predispositions likely exist (interactionist paradigm). Fascination w war toys common, as are useless arms races.

9 Dialogue with the Sphinx, III True war (organized violence to conquer neighbour) is a late cultural adaptation. Weapons, however, more deeply rooted. Perhaps if discover what is genetic & what is culture, arms control & peace research could be advanced. OConnell: If we came into this world armed, it was not necessarily as soldiers. Cows & grass = Ag Rev (~8,000 BC) in Mid E. Slow urbanization followed by 1st civs (~4,000 BC). 3,500 BC Bronze Rev = superior tools & wpns. Ag Rev = serious war now possible. Surplus permits complex societies & sustained military campaigns. Organization (religion solidifies beyond kin; permanent govt = irrigation projects & permanent armies). True war (organized violence to conquer neighbour) is a late cultural adaptation. Weapons, however, more deeply rooted. Perhaps if discover what is genetic & what is culture, arms control & peace research could be advanced. OConnell: If we came into this world armed, it was not necessarily as soldiers. Cows & grass = Ag Rev (~8,000 BC) in Mid E. Slow urbanization followed by 1st civs (~4,000 BC). 3,500 BC Bronze Rev = superior tools & wpns. Ag Rev = serious war now possible. Surplus permits complex societies & sustained military campaigns. Organization (religion solidifies beyond kin; permanent govt = irrigation projects & permanent armies).

10 Dialogue with the Sphinx, IV Ag Rev = incentive for war. Accumulated, sedentary wealth (gold, resources, cities) requires protection, but also provide opportunity to steal or conquer. Rise of militaries therefore followed. 4,000-2,000 BC era of great change. Previously: war in infancy (rare, chaotic, unorganized, w/ not much to steal = low mortality). W/ 1st civs = resources, organization, & incentive necessary to fight true battles of political conquest. Even if not want war, neighbour might. By 2,000 BC, wars similar to modern incarnations (proportionate size, admin, technological development, frequency, & destruction). Ag Rev = incentive for war. Accumulated, sedentary wealth (gold, resources, cities) requires protection, but also provide opportunity to steal or conquer. Rise of militaries therefore followed. 4,000-2,000 BC era of great change. Previously: war in infancy (rare, chaotic, unorganized, w/ not much to steal = low mortality). W/ 1st civs = resources, organization, & incentive necessary to fight true battles of political conquest. Even if not want war, neighbour might. By 2,000 BC, wars similar to modern incarnations (proportionate size, admin, technological development, frequency, & destruction).

11 The Ancient World 1st (recorded) organized battle at Megiddo in 1469 BC (indications of Sumerian fighting ~2500BC). Palestine & Syria revolt vs Egypt, but Thutmosis chariots smashed thru Pass & surrounded rebels. Even early war was contest of brute force, technology, & cunning. Wpns: discovery--> improvement --> adoption--> use. Accompanied by tactics for their employment. Shock (ie club) & missile (ie rocks) origins lost. Slings = > distance, > strength. Baleraric famous. Bow: since late Stone Age. 1st in Mid E, India, China. Horse & bow by 1500 BC (lethal & mobile). Requires much practice. Composite bows much stronger. Turkish bow 5ft, 300yrds, penetrate mail by 15th C. 1st (recorded) organized battle at Megiddo in 1469 BC (indications of Sumerian fighting ~2500BC). Palestine & Syria revolt vs Egypt, but Thutmosis chariots smashed thru Pass & surrounded rebels. Even early war was contest of brute force, technology, & cunning. Wpns: discovery--> improvement --> adoption--> use. Accompanied by tactics for their employment. Shock (ie club) & missile (ie rocks) origins lost. Slings = > distance, > strength. Baleraric famous. Bow: since late Stone Age. 1st in Mid E, India, China. Horse & bow by 1500 BC (lethal & mobile). Requires much practice. Composite bows much stronger. Turkish bow 5ft, 300yrds, penetrate mail by 15th C.

12 The Ancient World, II Chariots. Earliest were mobile platforms & command posts. Shock value demonstrated at Kadesh (1275 BC), Assyrian 7thC BC empire. Probs: draft animals vulnerable, require flat terrain. Horses & elephants (from 1000 BC & 600 BC). Elephants shocking, but dangerous to own troops, too. Early combat was a messy affair. Either crash & struggle or crash & flee (strategy ltd). Slingers & archers out front, spearmen tightly packed in centre, cavalry (for exploiting gaps) at head or flanks. 1. Harassing fire from missiles. 2. Shock troops charge. Innovation: imagination applied to men & wpns. Chariots. Earliest were mobile platforms & command posts. Shock value demonstrated at Kadesh (1275 BC), Assyrian 7thC BC empire. Probs: draft animals vulnerable, require flat terrain. Horses & elephants (from 1000 BC & 600 BC). Elephants shocking, but dangerous to own troops, too. Early combat was a messy affair. Either crash & struggle or crash & flee (strategy ltd). Slingers & archers out front, spearmen tightly packed in centre, cavalry (for exploiting gaps) at head or flanks. 1. Harassing fire from missiles. 2. Shock troops charge. Innovation: imagination applied to men & wpns.

13 The Ancient World, III Assyria (Tiglath-Pileser): 1st all-pro army ( 700BC). Military paid for by plunder (war was self-sustaining). 1st to use iron over bronze. Training & wpns improvement systematic. Skillful bureaucracy (field armies of 50k: 45k inf, in a mass 2.5km long x 100m deep). Used terror (wanton murder) to great effect. Phoenicians develop 1st warships (700BC). Longer, narrower, faster than regular merchant galleys. 5thC BC Athenian trireme (for boarding, but also 10ft metal beak) is template for 2,000 yrs. Tactics developed pre-500BC. Surprise, envelopment, disruption from missiles valued. Assyria (Tiglath-Pileser): 1st all-pro army ( 700BC). Military paid for by plunder (war was self-sustaining). 1st to use iron over bronze. Training & wpns improvement systematic. Skillful bureaucracy (field armies of 50k: 45k inf, in a mass 2.5km long x 100m deep). Used terror (wanton murder) to great effect. Phoenicians develop 1st warships (700BC). Longer, narrower, faster than regular merchant galleys. 5thC BC Athenian trireme (for boarding, but also 10ft metal beak) is template for 2,000 yrs. Tactics developed pre-500BC. Surprise, envelopment, disruption from missiles valued.

14 The Ancient World, III Greek phalanx almost unstoppable. Sumerian origins ( BC), in Greece by 7th C BC (poor cavalry country, except Macedonia). Hoplites: 6-9 foot pike, short sword, breastplate & helmet. Dense mass to smash through enemy lines. Psiloi: light troops (missileers often mercenaries) for front skirmishing & flank protection. Greeks literate, free, proud (indp, thinking soldiers). Philip II of Macedon (359 BC) to power. 14ft Sarissa adopted. Companies by region. Kept Macedon cavalry (Companions). Wpns dev & training. = finest ever. Chaeronea (338 BC): Thebans & Athenians drawn into trap, surrounded, annihilated. Unprecedented maneuver, complexity, & confidence. Arbela (331 BC): Alexander defeats Darius. Pulls open Persian line, then cavalry & inf smash thru. Greek phalanx almost unstoppable. Sumerian origins ( BC), in Greece by 7th C BC (poor cavalry country, except Macedonia). Hoplites: 6-9 foot pike, short sword, breastplate & helmet. Dense mass to smash through enemy lines. Psiloi: light troops (missileers often mercenaries) for front skirmishing & flank protection. Greeks literate, free, proud (indp, thinking soldiers). Philip II of Macedon (359 BC) to power. 14ft Sarissa adopted. Companies by region. Kept Macedon cavalry (Companions). Wpns dev & training. = finest ever. Chaeronea (338 BC): Thebans & Athenians drawn into trap, surrounded, annihilated. Unprecedented maneuver, complexity, & confidence. Arbela (331 BC): Alexander defeats Darius. Pulls open Persian line, then cavalry & inf smash thru.

15 The Ancient World, IV Romes inexorable rise. Began w Greek phalanx, covered by light troops. Battlefield experience & 2 wpns = rise of manipular legion (battle fought by indp maniples) by 300 BC. First time mass army fought as indp individuals. Gladius: 2ft Spanish thrusting sword; more fatal, but needs room to use (need citizen motivation to keep from fleeing). Pilum: 7ft (1/2 wood, 1/2 metal). Soft tip & max distance of 60 feet. By 1stC BC 2/per legionary. Together, Romans virtually unable to stop. Legion ~5,000tps (10 cohorts; incl 300 cav). Consular army: 2 legions, 2 = sized allied armies; 2.5km front. Maniples (~200 ea) deployed like checkerboard (1. Easily move around gaps, 2. Reinforce or retreat is easy). Defensive formations: line (when fortified), square & circle (vs cav). Romes inexorable rise. Began w Greek phalanx, covered by light troops. Battlefield experience & 2 wpns = rise of manipular legion (battle fought by indp maniples) by 300 BC. First time mass army fought as indp individuals. Gladius: 2ft Spanish thrusting sword; more fatal, but needs room to use (need citizen motivation to keep from fleeing). Pilum: 7ft (1/2 wood, 1/2 metal). Soft tip & max distance of 60 feet. By 1stC BC 2/per legionary. Together, Romans virtually unable to stop. Legion ~5,000tps (10 cohorts; incl 300 cav). Consular army: 2 legions, 2 = sized allied armies; 2.5km front. Maniples (~200 ea) deployed like checkerboard (1. Easily move around gaps, 2. Reinforce or retreat is easy). Defensive formations: line (when fortified), square & circle (vs cav).

16 The Ancient World, V Attack: 1st 2 lines fire pila, attk. Retreat when tired thru gaps. Constant replenishment of lines = buzzsaw. Preference for high ground, attk enemys flanks. Cav screens 20miles ahead; ballistae, catapults, engineers accompanied. Even Macedonian phalanx failed to stop. Roman success & stable tech = little change from 50 BC AD Legions supported by complicated mil & econ sys. Augustus: 10k Praetorians, 25 legions, 25 = auxiliaries. Severus: 40 legions, 34 munitions factories. Superb road network covered entire continent. Rigid frontier defences (Limes in Germ, Wall in UK). Enduring wealth & stability a crowning testament. Attack: 1st 2 lines fire pila, attk. Retreat when tired thru gaps. Constant replenishment of lines = buzzsaw. Preference for high ground, attk enemys flanks. Cav screens 20miles ahead; ballistae, catapults, engineers accompanied. Even Macedonian phalanx failed to stop. Roman success & stable tech = little change from 50 BC AD Legions supported by complicated mil & econ sys. Augustus: 10k Praetorians, 25 legions, 25 = auxiliaries. Severus: 40 legions, 34 munitions factories. Superb road network covered entire continent. Rigid frontier defences (Limes in Germ, Wall in UK). Enduring wealth & stability a crowning testament.

17 Rise of the Horsemen 3rd-5thC AD: infantry-centric W joins cavalry- centric E. Romans needed >er mobility, speed, & maneuverability in open desert & steppe. Increased use of missiles = battlefield diffusion = vulnerable to cavalry. Decreased morale & discipline = >er fear of horse charge. Cavalry easier to dash from 1 crisis to the next. Underlain by technology. Saddle w stirrups (from 1stC BC India) = stability & firm base to multiply speed x weight of horse & rider. By 4thC AD strong horses from Persia & Central Asia adopted (= mail armour for both = near invulnerability). 3rd-5thC AD: infantry-centric W joins cavalry- centric E. Romans needed >er mobility, speed, & maneuverability in open desert & steppe. Increased use of missiles = battlefield diffusion = vulnerable to cavalry. Decreased morale & discipline = >er fear of horse charge. Cavalry easier to dash from 1 crisis to the next. Underlain by technology. Saddle w stirrups (from 1stC BC India) = stability & firm base to multiply speed x weight of horse & rider. By 4thC AD strong horses from Persia & Central Asia adopted (= mail armour for both = near invulnerability).

18 Rise of the Horsemen, II Roman cavalry jumps from 10% to 25%, but not good enough to win Adrianople (378 AD). Incautious Valens is surprised. Unprepared Romans surrounded & annihilated. Roman Era is now over. Mobility, surprise, flank attacks, & power of the lancers charge = basis of cavalry tactics for next 1000yrs. Western Europe: end of Rome = Dark Ages. Vigorous & violent force applied w/o doctrine (masses of men hurled at masses of men). Franks admired Roman discipline & logistics, yet successes would not outlast innovators. Poor tech. Focus on local militia & local works. Cower until invading force runs out of plunder. Everyone could (& did) fight, though nothing was settled (hope w prof, hvy cav & castles--but took time). Roman cavalry jumps from 10% to 25%, but not good enough to win Adrianople (378 AD). Incautious Valens is surprised. Unprepared Romans surrounded & annihilated. Roman Era is now over. Mobility, surprise, flank attacks, & power of the lancers charge = basis of cavalry tactics for next 1000yrs. Western Europe: end of Rome = Dark Ages. Vigorous & violent force applied w/o doctrine (masses of men hurled at masses of men). Franks admired Roman discipline & logistics, yet successes would not outlast innovators. Poor tech. Focus on local militia & local works. Cower until invading force runs out of plunder. Everyone could (& did) fight, though nothing was settled (hope w prof, hvy cav & castles--but took time).

19 Rise of the Horsemen, III While West in chaos, was Islamic Explosion. Begun w Mohammeds flight from Mecca (622 AD). Landes: New men on old horses (not material, but ideational power). Light cavalry constantly harass, look to draw out & exploit openings w charges heedless to casualties. Byzantium & Persia exhausted & bickering = their rapid defeats (Mid E, Africa, Spain all fell). Victories at Yarmuk (636), Fustat/Cairo (640), Cordoba (712); Mosul (641), Kabul (664), & Samarkand (710). Halted by geog (distance + Pyrenees, Taurus, &Caucasus mtns) & toughness of Khazars, organization of Byzantines & Chinese, discipline of Frankish infantry (ie Tours in 732 AD). Eventually recognize limitations of élan = movement to defensive tactics & adopt some Byzantine organization. Internal political divisions = no longer unified post-850 AD. Abu Bakr becomes Caliph (political successor to Prophet) in 632. However, Ali (Mhds cousin) & supporters were rivals to throne (is cause of Sunni- Shia split, even though Ali spent time as Caliph). Civil war ends w Umayyads winning & ousting Alis family & Shia supporters (~661). Capital in Damascus. Abbasids take power 750 (also Sunni). Move capital to Baghdad, Umayyads fleet to Spain. Yet in 150 yrs Persian emirs take local control &N African empire slips away. Yet still powerful (steadily eroded Byzantines). While West in chaos, was Islamic Explosion. Begun w Mohammeds flight from Mecca (622 AD). Landes: New men on old horses (not material, but ideational power). Light cavalry constantly harass, look to draw out & exploit openings w charges heedless to casualties. Byzantium & Persia exhausted & bickering = their rapid defeats (Mid E, Africa, Spain all fell). Victories at Yarmuk (636), Fustat/Cairo (640), Cordoba (712); Mosul (641), Kabul (664), & Samarkand (710). Halted by geog (distance + Pyrenees, Taurus, &Caucasus mtns) & toughness of Khazars, organization of Byzantines & Chinese, discipline of Frankish infantry (ie Tours in 732 AD). Eventually recognize limitations of élan = movement to defensive tactics & adopt some Byzantine organization. Internal political divisions = no longer unified post-850 AD. Abu Bakr becomes Caliph (political successor to Prophet) in 632. However, Ali (Mhds cousin) & supporters were rivals to throne (is cause of Sunni- Shia split, even though Ali spent time as Caliph). Civil war ends w Umayyads winning & ousting Alis family & Shia supporters (~661). Capital in Damascus. Abbasids take power 750 (also Sunni). Move capital to Baghdad, Umayyads fleet to Spain. Yet in 150 yrs Persian emirs take local control &N African empire slips away. Yet still powerful (steadily eroded Byzantines).

20 Rise of the Horsemen, IV Byzantium (E Roman Empire). City rebuilt by Constantine in early 4thC AD. Huns & Persians teach need for heavy cavalry. By 6thC AD cataphract mainstay of army. Combines firepower (bow, lance, broad sword), discipline, (thoroughly professionalized, loyal) mobility, & shock-action capability (armoured battering rams). Anatolian heartland survived for 1000yrs, despite being surrounded by enemies. Constant learning, combined cav & inf (light missileers & heavy shock), kept Roman system (training, signals, engineers, artillery, medical) = best tps of Middle Ages. Greek fire assists in defence. Belisarius & Narses (527 AD-565) recapture W for Justinian. Tactics: inf holds off enemy, cav counters, while reserves exploit. Resort to trickery if necessary (vs. enemies & boost own tps). Byzantium (E Roman Empire). City rebuilt by Constantine in early 4thC AD. Huns & Persians teach need for heavy cavalry. By 6thC AD cataphract mainstay of army. Combines firepower (bow, lance, broad sword), discipline, (thoroughly professionalized, loyal) mobility, & shock-action capability (armoured battering rams). Anatolian heartland survived for 1000yrs, despite being surrounded by enemies. Constant learning, combined cav & inf (light missileers & heavy shock), kept Roman system (training, signals, engineers, artillery, medical) = best tps of Middle Ages. Greek fire assists in defence. Belisarius & Narses (527 AD-565) recapture W for Justinian. Tactics: inf holds off enemy, cav counters, while reserves exploit. Resort to trickery if necessary (vs. enemies & boost own tps).

21 East Meets West Byzantium. Above all, are pragmatic. Slow erosion of borders (700 AD-1000). 11th C decline apparent with Manzikert (1071) disaster. Unprepared forces exposed by impatient Romanus IV & deceitful rearguard. Loss followed by civil war & insufficient resources. Byzantium would never recover. Manzikert & Seljuk conquest of Jerusalem = Christendom clamours for war (Crusades). Both religion and politics at play. 1st, 2nd, 3rd ( , , ), by French, German, & English most important. Militarily superior (but disorganized) W vs. ferocious (but squabbling) E. Byzantium. Above all, are pragmatic. Slow erosion of borders (700 AD-1000). 11th C decline apparent with Manzikert (1071) disaster. Unprepared forces exposed by impatient Romanus IV & deceitful rearguard. Loss followed by civil war & insufficient resources. Byzantium would never recover. Manzikert & Seljuk conquest of Jerusalem = Christendom clamours for war (Crusades). Both religion and politics at play. 1st, 2nd, 3rd ( , , ), by French, German, & English most important. Militarily superior (but disorganized) W vs. ferocious (but squabbling) E.

22 East Meets West, II Mobile Islamic light cav harasses & tries to lure W into trap, while Crusader heavy cav seeks massed target. Dorylaeum (1097): armour holds Turkish arrows at bay. Surprise from Crusader relief column = W wins. More tenacity & fortune than gifted tactics. Constant war = (slowly) weapons improvement. Crossbow reintroduced in 11thC. Chinese invention (200 BC), used in 1stC AD by Romans. Mechanical strength = high speed = 150yrd range w > killing power (ie metal-piercing quarrels). Subject to 1139 Vatican Edict. Halberd (pike & axe in one). Fine Damascus & Toledo scimitars. European metal suits. Infantry wears leather jackets. Mobile Islamic light cav harasses & tries to lure W into trap, while Crusader heavy cav seeks massed target. Dorylaeum (1097): armour holds Turkish arrows at bay. Surprise from Crusader relief column = W wins. More tenacity & fortune than gifted tactics. Constant war = (slowly) weapons improvement. Crossbow reintroduced in 11thC. Chinese invention (200 BC), used in 1stC AD by Romans. Mechanical strength = high speed = 150yrd range w > killing power (ie metal-piercing quarrels). Subject to 1139 Vatican Edict. Halberd (pike & axe in one). Fine Damascus & Toledo scimitars. European metal suits. Infantry wears leather jackets.

23 East Meets West, III Armour (man & horse) = 150lbs = poor mobility for European cav. Fallen knights cant get up again. Victory = light casualties, defeat = massacre. Key military lessons learned: 1. Saw how Byzantines constructed fortresses (even if Europeans viewed as singular, not part of a system). 2. Infantry matters. Crossbow screens best way to keep Turkish cavalry at bay. Close inf-cav (combined arms) coordination necessary. Saladin brilliant at separating Crusader horse from foot. Europe benefits most from Crusades. Are most backward, thus have most to learn (including culture, science, economics--ie tariffs, accounting). Armour (man & horse) = 150lbs = poor mobility for European cav. Fallen knights cant get up again. Victory = light casualties, defeat = massacre. Key military lessons learned: 1. Saw how Byzantines constructed fortresses (even if Europeans viewed as singular, not part of a system). 2. Infantry matters. Crossbow screens best way to keep Turkish cavalry at bay. Close inf-cav (combined arms) coordination necessary. Saladin brilliant at separating Crusader horse from foot. Europe benefits most from Crusades. Are most backward, thus have most to learn (including culture, science, economics--ie tariffs, accounting).

24 East Meets West, IV No one is prepared for the Mongol whirlwind. Smash China (from 1211), Persia (from 1221), Russia (from 1223), E Europe (from 1241) = >est land empire. Hordes (field army) usually smaller than enemy. 240k tps to conquer Persia, 150k for Russia. Quality, not quantity = success. Characterized by simplified brilliance (ie silk shirts for arrows). Horde = 3 toumans (10k each; all units div into 10s). 40% hvy cav (for shock; leather or mail armoured; carry lance & scimitar or mace). 60% light cav (harass, screen; helmet but no armour; carried 2-300yd bow & scimitar or mace, javelin). Trained from 4 in Gobi Desert. Ruthless, obedient, lived off of Mares milk. Horses similarly sturdy. No one is prepared for the Mongol whirlwind. Smash China (from 1211), Persia (from 1221), Russia (from 1223), E Europe (from 1241) = >est land empire. Hordes (field army) usually smaller than enemy. 240k tps to conquer Persia, 150k for Russia. Quality, not quantity = success. Characterized by simplified brilliance (ie silk shirts for arrows). Horde = 3 toumans (10k each; all units div into 10s). 40% hvy cav (for shock; leather or mail armoured; carry lance & scimitar or mace). 60% light cav (harass, screen; helmet but no armour; carried 2-300yd bow & scimitar or mace, javelin). Trained from 4 in Gobi Desert. Ruthless, obedient, lived off of Mares milk. Horses similarly sturdy.

25 East Meets West V An unparalleled gift for war. Carried own baggage. Siege engines from local res. Spy networks. Screens 100mi in advance. Tactics = conquest w ease. Toumans advanced on broad front. Converge (behind screens), surround, destroy enemy on contact. No set pattern: attk flanks, rear, feign retreat. Any trick or cruelty permitted: cattle as lures, prairie fires, human shields, terror campaigns. 1241: 4 hordes under Sabotai & Batu devastate E Eur. Apr 1241: 60k Mongols surprise, surround, feint an escape for 90k Hungarians (70k killed) at Sajo River. 1242: before Vienna, yet stop after Ogatai dies (Eur is saved). Mongol contact too fast, to short for deep, long-lasting impact. Ain Jalut (1260): Ottomans (barely) halt Mongols (b/c logistics & political fracturing). An unparalleled gift for war. Carried own baggage. Siege engines from local res. Spy networks. Screens 100mi in advance. Tactics = conquest w ease. Toumans advanced on broad front. Converge (behind screens), surround, destroy enemy on contact. No set pattern: attk flanks, rear, feign retreat. Any trick or cruelty permitted: cattle as lures, prairie fires, human shields, terror campaigns. 1241: 4 hordes under Sabotai & Batu devastate E Eur. Apr 1241: 60k Mongols surprise, surround, feint an escape for 90k Hungarians (70k killed) at Sajo River. 1242: before Vienna, yet stop after Ogatai dies (Eur is saved). Mongol contact too fast, to short for deep, long-lasting impact. Ain Jalut (1260): Ottomans (barely) halt Mongols (b/c logistics & political fracturing).

26 The Gunpowder Revolution

27 Nations in Arms : 2 revs, endless wars, & > change. Emergence of nations in arms = everyone expected to = loyalty of officers. US War of Indp validates French reforms. Tactical flexibility (both columns & lines okay). More open movt & skirmishing by light troops. Gribeauval system (more mobile horse arty, bored barrels & better training). Now citizen-soldier (driven like 650 AD Arabians). French Revolution (1789). Public rises up. Army mutinies. Ancien régime melts. England, Prussia, Austria, & Russia seek to crush = war on all sides. Volunteer cohorts followed by 1793 levée en masse: entire nation called to arms (750,000 armed by 1794) : 2 revs, endless wars, & > change. Emergence of nations in arms = everyone expected to = loyalty of officers. US War of Indp validates French reforms. Tactical flexibility (both columns & lines okay). More open movt & skirmishing by light troops. Gribeauval system (more mobile horse arty, bored barrels & better training). Now citizen-soldier (driven like 650 AD Arabians). French Revolution (1789). Public rises up. Army mutinies. Ancien régime melts. England, Prussia, Austria, & Russia seek to crush = war on all sides. Volunteer cohorts followed by 1793 levée en masse: entire nation called to arms (750,000 armed by 1794).

28 Nations in Arms, II Revolution = further reform. Need & vacancies = merit, not purchase of rank. Ie Napoleon. Officer corps: from 85% aristocrats to <3%. Commissars sent out (backed by guillotine). Newspapers & song sheets as propaganda. April 1792 greeted by war. Revolutionary armies disorganized. Allies afraid of importing democracy. After loss of Verdun (in vital NE), Dumouriez & Kellermann recover at Valmy vs Prussians & Austrians. Outmaneuver, win arty duel, while inf holds firm. Goethe: new era in history begins frontiers again besieged. Cntr-rev=Reign of Terror by Cmttee of Public Safety. Carnot mobilizes everything for war. Revolution = further reform. Need & vacancies = merit, not purchase of rank. Ie Napoleon. Officer corps: from 85% aristocrats to <3%. Commissars sent out (backed by guillotine). Newspapers & song sheets as propaganda. April 1792 greeted by war. Revolutionary armies disorganized. Allies afraid of importing democracy. After loss of Verdun (in vital NE), Dumouriez & Kellermann recover at Valmy vs Prussians & Austrians. Outmaneuver, win arty duel, while inf holds firm. Goethe: new era in history begins frontiers again besieged. Cntr-rev=Reign of Terror by Cmttee of Public Safety. Carnot mobilizes everything for war.

29 Nations in Arms, III By 1794, foreigners thrown back. North stabilized. Toulon retaken from British. Yet logistics corrupt = pillaging necessary. Army is discontented (1795 Directory makes worse). Sees itself as revolutionary ideal, but treated shabbily. Napoleon, after brilliant N Italy campaign (& 1798 Egyptian disaster) seeks to exploit. Overthrows Directory (November 1798), Emperor by Napoleon: one of historys most brilliant captains. Enjoyed earlier reforms, talent-based, battle-tested generals, & 2mil patriotic soldiers (from Jourdan conscription law) = origins of modern mass army. Divs (inf, cav, & arty in 1) & corps simplify control. Nationalism allows foraging (troops will return). By 1794, foreigners thrown back. North stabilized. Toulon retaken from British. Yet logistics corrupt = pillaging necessary. Army is discontented (1795 Directory makes worse). Sees itself as revolutionary ideal, but treated shabbily. Napoleon, after brilliant N Italy campaign (& 1798 Egyptian disaster) seeks to exploit. Overthrows Directory (November 1798), Emperor by Napoleon: one of historys most brilliant captains. Enjoyed earlier reforms, talent-based, battle-tested generals, & 2mil patriotic soldiers (from Jourdan conscription law) = origins of modern mass army. Divs (inf, cav, & arty in 1) & corps simplify control. Nationalism allows foraging (troops will return).

30 Nations in Arms, IV Yet Napoleons genius still stood out. Sought not to win, but to shatter enemy by attacking, w massed reserve, flank or rear (while they fixed at front) is Napoleons crowning achievement. Cant cross Channel to strike UK, so heads E. Outflanks (& outnumbers) Austrians at Ulm. Austerlitz: draws in Russians on right, then smashes thru Russians weakened centre & into rear. One of historys >est victories, yet never enough. Outdone by: strategic greed, growing resentment towards Fr occupation, improvements of enemies, UK Continental System a failure. Tariffs & UK industry = black markets & exceptions. Iberian Peninsula (France invades in 1808). British army & Spanish irregulars = costly ulcer. Yet Napoleons genius still stood out. Sought not to win, but to shatter enemy by attacking, w massed reserve, flank or rear (while they fixed at front) is Napoleons crowning achievement. Cant cross Channel to strike UK, so heads E. Outflanks (& outnumbers) Austrians at Ulm. Austerlitz: draws in Russians on right, then smashes thru Russians weakened centre & into rear. One of historys >est victories, yet never enough. Outdone by: strategic greed, growing resentment towards Fr occupation, improvements of enemies, UK Continental System a failure. Tariffs & UK industry = black markets & exceptions. Iberian Peninsula (France invades in 1808). British army & Spanish irregulars = costly ulcer.

31 Nations in Arms, V Invasion of Russia dooms France. Borodino: costly frontal assault = French win, but not overwhelm Russians (who continue to fall back). Moscow burned down. No food = French retreat. Harassed by hunger, cold, & partisans. June 1812: French = 600,000. December: 93, : French pushed to brink (ie Leipzig). Allied cooperation, learning (ie Scharnhorst & General Staff) & German nationalism (now citizen-soldier too). Napoleons old brilliance in 1814 is insufficient. Outnumbered & w Paris captured, Napoleon abdicates. Waterloo (1815) closely run, but 450k Austrian & Russian reserve would have finished Napoleon. Napoleonic Wars killed 20% of all Frenchmen born (forerunner of the bloody 20th C). Invasion of Russia dooms France. Borodino: costly frontal assault = French win, but not overwhelm Russians (who continue to fall back). Moscow burned down. No food = French retreat. Harassed by hunger, cold, & partisans. June 1812: French = 600,000. December: 93, : French pushed to brink (ie Leipzig). Allied cooperation, learning (ie Scharnhorst & General Staff) & German nationalism (now citizen-soldier too). Napoleons old brilliance in 1814 is insufficient. Outnumbered & w Paris captured, Napoleon abdicates. Waterloo (1815) closely run, but 450k Austrian & Russian reserve would have finished Napoleon. Napoleonic Wars killed 20% of all Frenchmen born (forerunner of the bloody 20th C).

32 The Industrialization of War 1815 a lenient, but conservative, peace. Everyone tired by war. UK content w econ power. Congress of Vienna: Russia gets Poland, Prussia gets Ruhr, E Eur stays colonized (Metternich the architect). The Long 19th C. Century of unprecedented peace & prosperity. Interrupted by 1830 Fr Revol & Belgian partition democracy & nationalism riots widespread, but unorganized & (in Austria) put down by Russian tps. 1854: Russia moves vs Ottomans = Crimean War. UK & Fr tps to Constantinople (not want Russian outlet to the sea), but Tsar halted by Austrian threat. UK & Fr still want to teach a lesson = limited war. Sci & tech important. 1. Minie rifled bullet. 2. Steamships. 3. Telegraph (= transoceanic strategy & powerful media) a lenient, but conservative, peace. Everyone tired by war. UK content w econ power. Congress of Vienna: Russia gets Poland, Prussia gets Ruhr, E Eur stays colonized (Metternich the architect). The Long 19th C. Century of unprecedented peace & prosperity. Interrupted by 1830 Fr Revol & Belgian partition democracy & nationalism riots widespread, but unorganized & (in Austria) put down by Russian tps. 1854: Russia moves vs Ottomans = Crimean War. UK & Fr tps to Constantinople (not want Russian outlet to the sea), but Tsar halted by Austrian threat. UK & Fr still want to teach a lesson = limited war. Sci & tech important. 1. Minie rifled bullet. 2. Steamships. 3. Telegraph (= transoceanic strategy & powerful media).

33 Industrialization of War, II Siege of Sebastopol, Haphazard (though unopposed) Sept 1854 landing. Russian columns devastated by rifled muskets of British lines at Alma river. French caution = port defences organized. Balaclava & Inkerman relief attempts fail (even w Charge of the Light Brigade). Winter destroys British army. French left to take Malakoff fortress next Sept (synchronize watches 1st). Technology overwhelms (ie 4:1 casualty balance), but media powerful now too (British army forced to reform). US Civil War. Ties popular (uncompromising) enthusiasm of French Rev to industrial technology = harbinger of future. Industrial N (25mil) vs agrarian S (9mil). Siege of Sebastopol, Haphazard (though unopposed) Sept 1854 landing. Russian columns devastated by rifled muskets of British lines at Alma river. French caution = port defences organized. Balaclava & Inkerman relief attempts fail (even w Charge of the Light Brigade). Winter destroys British army. French left to take Malakoff fortress next Sept (synchronize watches 1st). Technology overwhelms (ie 4:1 casualty balance), but media powerful now too (British army forced to reform). US Civil War. Ties popular (uncompromising) enthusiasm of French Rev to industrial technology = harbinger of future. Industrial N (25mil) vs agrarian S (9mil).

34 Industrialization of War, III N: politically astute (Lincoln), vs S: tough to invade (broad geography) & not need to win. Both sides new to large-scale military operations--yet willing to endure incredible losses (ie Gettysburg). Shiloh, 1862: shows tactics not kept pace w tech. Johnston (S) surprises Grant (N). Rifled muskets = bloodbath for open lines. N wins when Buell relieves. Antietam, 1862: again battle of brutal attrition. McClellan (N) too slow vs brilliant Lee (S). 3 N waves beaten back = bloodiest day in US history (20k cas). Afterwards, increasingly resort to trenches (ie WWI). N wins by >er resources & devastation. Sherman burns path to the sea (left chimneyvilles). Sheridan rampages thru Virginia (left a barren waste). Modern war is ruthless. 625K total soldiers left dead. N: politically astute (Lincoln), vs S: tough to invade (broad geography) & not need to win. Both sides new to large-scale military operations--yet willing to endure incredible losses (ie Gettysburg). Shiloh, 1862: shows tactics not kept pace w tech. Johnston (S) surprises Grant (N). Rifled muskets = bloodbath for open lines. N wins when Buell relieves. Antietam, 1862: again battle of brutal attrition. McClellan (N) too slow vs brilliant Lee (S). 3 N waves beaten back = bloodiest day in US history (20k cas). Afterwards, increasingly resort to trenches (ie WWI). N wins by >er resources & devastation. Sherman burns path to the sea (left chimneyvilles). Sheridan rampages thru Virginia (left a barren waste). Modern war is ruthless. 625K total soldiers left dead.

35 Industrialization of War, IV Bismarcks wars: exactly opposite lessons learned Jena-Auerstadt defeat = unparalleled officer class from Kriegsakademie & general staff. Emphasis on strategic planning & railway construction. Breech-loading needlegun 3-4x faster, can reload lying down. Bismarck brilliant diplomat (knew how to gamble). Knew Prussia underestimated, Europe uncoordinated. Recognized nationalism, but also power of blood & iron. Schleswig-Holstein quickly taken in Austrians overwhelmed at Koniggratz (1866). Poor Austrian staff work, rapid Prussian rail movement, needlegun = accept Bismarcks (calculated) generous terms. Franco-Prussian War (1870-1). France unwilling to accept Austrian settlement = Bismarck orchestrates diplomatic incident. Moltke enjoys honed planning, rapid rail movement. Bismarcks wars: exactly opposite lessons learned Jena-Auerstadt defeat = unparalleled officer class from Kriegsakademie & general staff. Emphasis on strategic planning & railway construction. Breech-loading needlegun 3-4x faster, can reload lying down. Bismarck brilliant diplomat (knew how to gamble). Knew Prussia underestimated, Europe uncoordinated. Recognized nationalism, but also power of blood & iron. Schleswig-Holstein quickly taken in Austrians overwhelmed at Koniggratz (1866). Poor Austrian staff work, rapid Prussian rail movement, needlegun = accept Bismarcks (calculated) generous terms. Franco-Prussian War (1870-1). France unwilling to accept Austrian settlement = Bismarck orchestrates diplomatic incident. Moltke enjoys honed planning, rapid rail movement.

36 Industrialization of War, V …steel, breech-loading artillery, & superior generals. Overcomes French chassepot rifle & tactical gifts. French trapped at Metz & Sedan. Napoleon III falls. WWI approaches. French do not forget loss of Alsace & Lorraine. Europe convinced well-managed wars are brief & relatively painless (war can pay). Missed brilliance of Bismarck & ineptitude of enemies. Reinforced by heroic professionalism winning colonial wars. Most dangerous result was impact on Germany. New German empire (proclaimed 1871) believes military prowess = victory (dangerous b/c Bismarcks less-qualified political successors could not keep control). Economic expansion fueled world-wide empires, but also greater war potential. Political sophistication doesnt keep pace w mil & econ power. Technology developed at dizzying pace (ie oil dreadnoughts, smokeless cartridges, nitrate explosives, machine guns). …steel, breech-loading artillery, & superior generals. Overcomes French chassepot rifle & tactical gifts. French trapped at Metz & Sedan. Napoleon III falls. WWI approaches. French do not forget loss of Alsace & Lorraine. Europe convinced well-managed wars are brief & relatively painless (war can pay). Missed brilliance of Bismarck & ineptitude of enemies. Reinforced by heroic professionalism winning colonial wars. Most dangerous result was impact on Germany. New German empire (proclaimed 1871) believes military prowess = victory (dangerous b/c Bismarcks less-qualified political successors could not keep control). Economic expansion fueled world-wide empires, but also greater war potential. Political sophistication doesnt keep pace w mil & econ power. Technology developed at dizzying pace (ie oil dreadnoughts, smokeless cartridges, nitrate explosives, machine guns).

37 The Great War WWII born from the First. Instigated a century of change (pol, econ, women). Ended secular religion of progress (& followed by profound crisis of faith). New weapons shattered belief wars can be cheap. Arms over courage (mocked warrior ethic). Huge price (10mil deaths) paid for little gain--all while in pursuit of ltd aims. Everyone wanted short, decisive war--but nobody got it. Poor tactics = blundering, experimental corpse factory. Typified by Verdun (1916): purpose merely to kill. Cult of offensive dominated. Germany (Schlieffen Plan), France (Plan 17), Russia (into E Prussia) all attack--yet tech favoured defence. Railways & French 75s stopped Germans at the Marne (1914). WWII born from the First. Instigated a century of change (pol, econ, women). Ended secular religion of progress (& followed by profound crisis of faith). New weapons shattered belief wars can be cheap. Arms over courage (mocked warrior ethic). Huge price (10mil deaths) paid for little gain--all while in pursuit of ltd aims. Everyone wanted short, decisive war--but nobody got it. Poor tactics = blundering, experimental corpse factory. Typified by Verdun (1916): purpose merely to kill. Cult of offensive dominated. Germany (Schlieffen Plan), France (Plan 17), Russia (into E Prussia) all attack--yet tech favoured defence. Railways & French 75s stopped Germans at the Marne (1914).

38 The Great War, II Germans retreat to trenches along R. Aisne. Wall of wire & MGs extended during Race to the Sea. 4 years of trench warfare followed. Ypres demonstrates how difficult to break thru. Falkenhayn sends volunteer youths to be shot down by UK professionals (kindermord bei Ypern). Oct14 - Mar18 front moves not even 10mi either way. Aug-Oct 14 cas: Fr & UK 940k, Germ 677k. Kitchener: this isnt war! 1915: Germans stick to defence in W (hvy guns, trench mortars, grenades, periscopes, mining equipment). Chemists convince generals to use Cl gas (overcome militarys opposition w argument that Entente cannot develop own). Sept 15 breech opened at Ypres, but too few reserves to exploit (generals not trust). Countermeasures quickly developed, plus winds change. Germans retreat to trenches along R. Aisne. Wall of wire & MGs extended during Race to the Sea. 4 years of trench warfare followed. Ypres demonstrates how difficult to break thru. Falkenhayn sends volunteer youths to be shot down by UK professionals (kindermord bei Ypern). Oct14 - Mar18 front moves not even 10mi either way. Aug-Oct 14 cas: Fr & UK 940k, Germ 677k. Kitchener: this isnt war! 1915: Germans stick to defence in W (hvy guns, trench mortars, grenades, periscopes, mining equipment). Chemists convince generals to use Cl gas (overcome militarys opposition w argument that Entente cannot develop own). Sept 15 breech opened at Ypres, but too few reserves to exploit (generals not trust). Countermeasures quickly developed, plus winds change.

39 The Great War, III Followed by phosgene & mustard, but neither really effective. Gas = widespread revulsion: though actually lower casualties, no one who was gassed ever forgot. Total war meets its modern apex. Entire nation coalesced into single national firm for waging war. Family life, property rights, consumption patterns, & social & geographic mobility all reshaped for war production. Miracles achieved: France builds new industrial base, Russia explodes, Germany overcomes much of blockade. Height of perpetual death machine in 1916: 302 days & 1mil cas at Verdun (simply to bleed the French white). The Somme: UK believed increase men & explosives = victory. Yet insufficient (60k lost on 1st day alone). Germans suffer equally in fruitless counterattacks. 600k cas each for 6-7 miles of strategically useless ground. Followed by phosgene & mustard, but neither really effective. Gas = widespread revulsion: though actually lower casualties, no one who was gassed ever forgot. Total war meets its modern apex. Entire nation coalesced into single national firm for waging war. Family life, property rights, consumption patterns, & social & geographic mobility all reshaped for war production. Miracles achieved: France builds new industrial base, Russia explodes, Germany overcomes much of blockade. Height of perpetual death machine in 1916: 302 days & 1mil cas at Verdun (simply to bleed the French white). The Somme: UK believed increase men & explosives = victory. Yet insufficient (60k lost on 1st day alone). Germans suffer equally in fruitless counterattacks. 600k cas each for 6-7 miles of strategically useless ground.

40 The Great War, IV War stretched limits of endurance. Shell shock common (though mutiny rare). Internal combustion engine = tank now possible. Churchill & RN sponsors. Ready by Swinton was ignored: in first battles, used in dribbles. Cambrai (1917) & later demonstrate potential (even if not yet decisive). Germans slow to respond (short on metal & industry). End comes from exhausted armies giving up. 3yrs of successive strain (defeats & industrial growth) + weak govt = Russian Rev (1917). Army dissolves. Bolsheviks stall & Germany swallows huge territory w Brest- Litovsk Treaty (1917)--prob: takes huge #s to garrison. Italian defeat balanced vs. US entering war (provoked by unrestricted U-boat attacks trying to starve the UK). War stretched limits of endurance. Shell shock common (though mutiny rare). Internal combustion engine = tank now possible. Churchill & RN sponsors. Ready by Swinton was ignored: in first battles, used in dribbles. Cambrai (1917) & later demonstrate potential (even if not yet decisive). Germans slow to respond (short on metal & industry). End comes from exhausted armies giving up. 3yrs of successive strain (defeats & industrial growth) + weak govt = Russian Rev (1917). Army dissolves. Bolsheviks stall & Germany swallows huge territory w Brest- Litovsk Treaty (1917)--prob: takes huge #s to garrison. Italian defeat balanced vs. US entering war (provoked by unrestricted U-boat attacks trying to starve the UK).

41 The Great War, V Ludendorff & Hindenburg in final (1918) gamble. Leading units trained in Hutier tactics (infiltrate, bypass resistance, short barrages). Strike Mar 1918 at junction of UK & Fr troops. Tactics & numerical strength = make 20km in few days. Successive attacks bring Germans to just outside Paris. Problem: running out of steam (men, guns), while Entente supported by fresh American troops (2mil by Nov & eager to die, ie Belleau Wood). July Entente counterattacks. August 8 Black Day for German Army (begin surrendering in droves). Sept: Ludendorff breaks down & advises surrender. Army Nov 11, 1918: armistice called. Treaty of Versailles (1919) like Prob: Germans not convinced militarily defeated = some willing to do again--yet w modern tech, moderate war no longer possible. Ludendorff & Hindenburg in final (1918) gamble. Leading units trained in Hutier tactics (infiltrate, bypass resistance, short barrages). Strike Mar 1918 at junction of UK & Fr troops. Tactics & numerical strength = make 20km in few days. Successive attacks bring Germans to just outside Paris. Problem: running out of steam (men, guns), while Entente supported by fresh American troops (2mil by Nov & eager to die, ie Belleau Wood). July Entente counterattacks. August 8 Black Day for German Army (begin surrendering in droves). Sept: Ludendorff breaks down & advises surrender. Army Nov 11, 1918: armistice called. Treaty of Versailles (1919) like Prob: Germans not convinced militarily defeated = some willing to do again--yet w modern tech, moderate war no longer possible.

42 The End of Days WWII a bloodbath of unprecedented proportions: 55mil directly killed. Yet limited indp meaning (a continuation of WWI-- both in cause & manner). 1920s-35: sincere arms control efforts. Efforts both for both land & sea. Supported by war-weary society. Early progress = hope for enduring disarmament. However, military preparations also. Ie Washington Naval Conference of popular, yet only limited old, unsuccessful Dreadnoughts, gave high ceilings to new aircraft carriers, & ignored useful subs (too valuable to give up). Both peace & military realism at play. Simultaneous quest for disarmament & better weapons. WWII a bloodbath of unprecedented proportions: 55mil directly killed. Yet limited indp meaning (a continuation of WWI-- both in cause & manner). 1920s-35: sincere arms control efforts. Efforts both for both land & sea. Supported by war-weary society. Early progress = hope for enduring disarmament. However, military preparations also. Ie Washington Naval Conference of popular, yet only limited old, unsuccessful Dreadnoughts, gave high ceilings to new aircraft carriers, & ignored useful subs (too valuable to give up). Both peace & military realism at play. Simultaneous quest for disarmament & better weapons.

43 The End of Days, II Feel good diplomacy a serious problem Treaty of Paris: outlawed war by fiat alone Geneva Conference: aimed to abolish offensive weapons, but could not define. Small victory: 1925 Geneva Protocol. Banned use of poison gas in combat (though neither production nor enforcement). Was adhered to in war (despite all WWIIs excesses). Rise of Germany & Japan = militarism to the fore. von Seeckt & Reichswehr maintain German military professionalism. Weapons built in other countries. By 1922, Germans R&D & training in Soviet Russia. Japanese navy experiments & expands (ie carriers). Hitler was product of WWI. Missed radar & nukes, but understood potency of tanks. Feel good diplomacy a serious problem Treaty of Paris: outlawed war by fiat alone Geneva Conference: aimed to abolish offensive weapons, but could not define. Small victory: 1925 Geneva Protocol. Banned use of poison gas in combat (though neither production nor enforcement). Was adhered to in war (despite all WWIIs excesses). Rise of Germany & Japan = militarism to the fore. von Seeckt & Reichswehr maintain German military professionalism. Weapons built in other countries. By 1922, Germans R&D & training in Soviet Russia. Japanese navy experiments & expands (ie carriers). Hitler was product of WWI. Missed radar & nukes, but understood potency of tanks.

44 The End of Days, III Hitler knew Allies could out-produce = plans for a quick war. 88mm, panzers, strike aircraft (ie Stuka) developed. Allied versions often better (& much more easily produced), but German knew exactly what they wanted to do with them. Allies slow, but did prepare for war. UK: Tizzard = integrated radar network (C3), plus bombers (to save having to fight another ground war). France: 7bn Frf, impregnable Maginot Line. Solid, but incomplete (b/c cost & alliance politics). WWII as barbaric as any predatory struggle. Germans ruthless, Britain bombed Germany to rubble, Russians vengeful, US & Japan filled w racist hate. Hitler bent on pure conquest & genocide (legacy is final solution). A man if not inevitable, hardly inappropriate for the times. Hitler knew Allies could out-produce = plans for a quick war. 88mm, panzers, strike aircraft (ie Stuka) developed. Allied versions often better (& much more easily produced), but German knew exactly what they wanted to do with them. Allies slow, but did prepare for war. UK: Tizzard = integrated radar network (C3), plus bombers (to save having to fight another ground war). France: 7bn Frf, impregnable Maginot Line. Solid, but incomplete (b/c cost & alliance politics). WWII as barbaric as any predatory struggle. Germans ruthless, Britain bombed Germany to rubble, Russians vengeful, US & Japan filled w racist hate. Hitler bent on pure conquest & genocide (legacy is final solution). A man if not inevitable, hardly inappropriate for the times.

45 The End of Days, IV USSR & US distinguished by tremendous industrial production German arms production only 1/4 of 1918, vs US shipbuilding & entire new (moved) Russian industries. Germans aggressive, well-trained troops until end- -just buried under avalanche of weapons. Early western successes undone by Russian colossus. Barbarossa about a new social order. However, Russian army not all trapped in 8 weeks. 136 German divs not enough for 200 Red Army; 3,550 vs 12,000 tanks = 4 years of attrition. T-34 best weapon of war. Soviet soldier ferocious. Hitler orders sidestep to resource-rich Donets Basin (while High Command wants to destroy army outside Moscow). Central Crisis: Moscow, Dec Zhukov throws 1mil troops at exhausted Germans. USSR & US distinguished by tremendous industrial production German arms production only 1/4 of 1918, vs US shipbuilding & entire new (moved) Russian industries. Germans aggressive, well-trained troops until end- -just buried under avalanche of weapons. Early western successes undone by Russian colossus. Barbarossa about a new social order. However, Russian army not all trapped in 8 weeks. 136 German divs not enough for 200 Red Army; 3,550 vs 12,000 tanks = 4 years of attrition. T-34 best weapon of war. Soviet soldier ferocious. Hitler orders sidestep to resource-rich Donets Basin (while High Command wants to destroy army outside Moscow). Central Crisis: Moscow, Dec Zhukov throws 1mil troops at exhausted Germans.

46 The End of Days, V Hitler correct outside Moscow, but wrong at Stalingrad (& many times after). Plus, German savagery united Soviet empire (3mil+ Soviet POWs died in captivity, 5mil in battle, 20mil+ citizens from deprivations). Soviet (hatred-fuelled) courage & endless weapons supply drives Germans back (ie Kursk). WWII: USSR produced 110,000 tanks & self-propelled guns vs Germanys 23,000. Hitler sustained by fantasy of superweapons. V1 & V2 rockets, Me 262 ineffective or too late (though form basis for post-war developments). Total, predatory struggle = unconditional surrender. Nazi Germany ended w complete pulverization. Peace not to be a repeat of Versailles. Hitler correct outside Moscow, but wrong at Stalingrad (& many times after). Plus, German savagery united Soviet empire (3mil+ Soviet POWs died in captivity, 5mil in battle, 20mil+ citizens from deprivations). Soviet (hatred-fuelled) courage & endless weapons supply drives Germans back (ie Kursk). WWII: USSR produced 110,000 tanks & self-propelled guns vs Germanys 23,000. Hitler sustained by fantasy of superweapons. V1 & V2 rockets, Me 262 ineffective or too late (though form basis for post-war developments). Total, predatory struggle = unconditional surrender. Nazi Germany ended w complete pulverization. Peace not to be a repeat of Versailles.

47 The Atomic Revolution Dec 38: Hahn & Strassman split atom w neutrons. Meitner: E=mc2 = 1lbs split Ur = 7mil lbs coal. Bohr-->Fermi-->Szilard: prove bomb is possible. Einstein to Roosevelt: we have to beat Nazis. Pearl Harbour = Manhattan Project by summer 42. US did not believe Japan would develop bomb. Yet after Germany defeated, still continued dev. Bomb therefore not to deter vs another bomb, but to be used. June 1 45: kamikaze attacks at Iwo Jima & Okinawa = Truman approves demonstration use. Aug 6: Ur bomb (Little Boy) dropped by B-29 (Enola Gay) on Hiroshima. 15kt bomb = 15,000 tonnes of TNT. Of 300,000 citizens, 144,000 cas (68,000 deaths). 67% of buildings damaged. Firestorm finished off city. Dec 38: Hahn & Strassman split atom w neutrons. Meitner: E=mc2 = 1lbs split Ur = 7mil lbs coal. Bohr-->Fermi-->Szilard: prove bomb is possible. Einstein to Roosevelt: we have to beat Nazis. Pearl Harbour = Manhattan Project by summer 42. US did not believe Japan would develop bomb. Yet after Germany defeated, still continued dev. Bomb therefore not to deter vs another bomb, but to be used. June 1 45: kamikaze attacks at Iwo Jima & Okinawa = Truman approves demonstration use. Aug 6: Ur bomb (Little Boy) dropped by B-29 (Enola Gay) on Hiroshima. 15kt bomb = 15,000 tonnes of TNT. Of 300,000 citizens, 144,000 cas (68,000 deaths). 67% of buildings damaged. Firestorm finished off city.

48 The Atomic Revolution, II Aug 9: Nagaski, by plutonium Fat Man. 59,000 casualties (of whom 38,000 were deaths), out of a population of 200, % of buildings damaged. Casualties worsened by hot, cloudless weather, thin garments, & poor medical care. 70% of casualties from blast, 65% burns, 30% radiation. Basic Cold War intellectual division: 1. Deterrence: Brodie (The Absolute Weapon). War now so destructive, militarys job no longer to win, but to prevent (birth of deterrence). Power of nukes to awe enemy into peace. 2. Warfighting: Nitze (Strategic Bombing Survey). Evacuation plans, shelters, & industrial decentralization would have reduced Japanese losses. If costs not so excessive, old rules apply (war remains). Aug 9: Nagaski, by plutonium Fat Man. 59,000 casualties (of whom 38,000 were deaths), out of a population of 200, % of buildings damaged. Casualties worsened by hot, cloudless weather, thin garments, & poor medical care. 70% of casualties from blast, 65% burns, 30% radiation. Basic Cold War intellectual division: 1. Deterrence: Brodie (The Absolute Weapon). War now so destructive, militarys job no longer to win, but to prevent (birth of deterrence). Power of nukes to awe enemy into peace. 2. Warfighting: Nitze (Strategic Bombing Survey). Evacuation plans, shelters, & industrial decentralization would have reduced Japanese losses. If costs not so excessive, old rules apply (war remains).

49 The Atomic Revolution, III Warfighterss core assumption: cities & militaries can be separated, thus society can survive nukes. Cities need to survive war if war is to be useful. Prob: nukes becoming more deadly, not less. 1. Fusion bomb (use 100mil heat from fission to fuse H atoms) far more powerful--like sun. Nov 52: MIKE exploded in Marshalls. Test island disappears (1 mile in diameter). Was 10 megatons (10 million tons of TNT), or roughly 1000x Hiroshima. Entire societies now threatened. 2. Radiation (by 50s, begin to realize it matters). Atmospheric tests contaminated great distances away. Nukes take on nefarious light (affect even those who arent fighting). Goodbye military-only targeting. Warfighterss core assumption: cities & militaries can be separated, thus society can survive nukes. Cities need to survive war if war is to be useful. Prob: nukes becoming more deadly, not less. 1. Fusion bomb (use 100mil heat from fission to fuse H atoms) far more powerful--like sun. Nov 52: MIKE exploded in Marshalls. Test island disappears (1 mile in diameter). Was 10 megatons (10 million tons of TNT), or roughly 1000x Hiroshima. Entire societies now threatened. 2. Radiation (by 50s, begin to realize it matters). Atmospheric tests contaminated great distances away. Nukes take on nefarious light (affect even those who arent fighting). Goodbye military-only targeting.

50 The Atomic Revolution, IV 3. ICBMs almost unstoppable. Bombers can be defended against (ie UK, Germany), but rockets fly 17,000 mph. By mid-50s, ICBMs can (accurately) fly across continents. Early 60s: SLBMs from silent subs offshore (now warning time of only a few minutes). Defending against nuclear attack now almost impossible = rise of MAD. So long as have enough warheads to retaliate vs enemy cities, no one will attack you. Security through triad (nukes on land, sea, & air) & effective communication. Paradox: hold each other hostage = peace. Yet warfighting sticks around. Accuracy greatly improves (= < nukes = < radiation). 3. ICBMs almost unstoppable. Bombers can be defended against (ie UK, Germany), but rockets fly 17,000 mph. By mid-50s, ICBMs can (accurately) fly across continents. Early 60s: SLBMs from silent subs offshore (now warning time of only a few minutes). Defending against nuclear attack now almost impossible = rise of MAD. So long as have enough warheads to retaliate vs enemy cities, no one will attack you. Security through triad (nukes on land, sea, & air) & effective communication. Paradox: hold each other hostage = peace. Yet warfighting sticks around. Accuracy greatly improves (= < nukes = < radiation).

51 The Atomic Revolution, V MIRVs: multiple, accurate warheads on each missile (1 missile = many targets). What if so many nukes = decapitate b/4 they can respond? Response to MIRVs is BMD. Need to keep deterrence mutual (protect vs 1st strike). Warfighters want to limit damage (so can fight nuclear war & still have something to win). Plus: moral unpalatability of MAD (ie Reagan & Star Wars). However, problems have consumed previous attempts (ie since Soviet Griffon in mid-50s). Small size, speed, decoys = difficult to intercept. Control radars are vulnerable to attacks. Can flood BMD system (& leakers are painful). Danger of upsetting strategic balance (end of MAD). MIRVs: multiple, accurate warheads on each missile (1 missile = many targets). What if so many nukes = decapitate b/4 they can respond? Response to MIRVs is BMD. Need to keep deterrence mutual (protect vs 1st strike). Warfighters want to limit damage (so can fight nuclear war & still have something to win). Plus: moral unpalatability of MAD (ie Reagan & Star Wars). However, problems have consumed previous attempts (ie since Soviet Griffon in mid-50s). Small size, speed, decoys = difficult to intercept. Control radars are vulnerable to attacks. Can flood BMD system (& leakers are painful). Danger of upsetting strategic balance (end of MAD).

52 The Atomic Revolution, VI B/c of cost & danger, is political demand for perfection (though impossible). Is major war now obsolete? In nuclear age, goal of international primacy is not worth it. Remorseless gamblers no longer allowed into positions of high power. Hitler may not have preferred MAD, but his associates would have. The result: 75 years of periodic crisis, but great power stability. Yet, unlike hegemony, deterrence peace comes from strength negated, from potential violence finely balanced against each other. Unfortunately, then, potential for violence remains (as underlying causes have not been solved, only stymied). B/c of cost & danger, is political demand for perfection (though impossible). Is major war now obsolete? In nuclear age, goal of international primacy is not worth it. Remorseless gamblers no longer allowed into positions of high power. Hitler may not have preferred MAD, but his associates would have. The result: 75 years of periodic crisis, but great power stability. Yet, unlike hegemony, deterrence peace comes from strength negated, from potential violence finely balanced against each other. Unfortunately, then, potential for violence remains (as underlying causes have not been solved, only stymied).

53 The Postwar World US & USSR natural enemies = Cold War. Lots of nukes by 50s = crises, but no direct war. Great power stability does not = global peace. Algeria: French lose Vietnam, only to fight again. Nov 54: Algerian rebels (FLN) initiate struggle. Arab nationalism stirred, but 10,000s of French settlers not want to leave. Struggle is brutal. 56: conscripts sent. Face difficulty & FLN hits cities. Late 56: Arab districts controlled by FLN. European districts brought to standstill by terror attacks. Jan 57: paratroopers take over cities from police. Massu ruthless, dirty. Arrest, search, torture. FLN collapses. 4yrs of relentless suppression. Helos, jeeps hunt FLN bases. Brutality wins, yet outrages urban France (ie Sartre). Won military, but lost political war: De Gaulle grants indp 62. US & USSR natural enemies = Cold War. Lots of nukes by 50s = crises, but no direct war. Great power stability does not = global peace. Algeria: French lose Vietnam, only to fight again. Nov 54: Algerian rebels (FLN) initiate struggle. Arab nationalism stirred, but 10,000s of French settlers not want to leave. Struggle is brutal. 56: conscripts sent. Face difficulty & FLN hits cities. Late 56: Arab districts controlled by FLN. European districts brought to standstill by terror attacks. Jan 57: paratroopers take over cities from police. Massu ruthless, dirty. Arrest, search, torture. FLN collapses. 4yrs of relentless suppression. Helos, jeeps hunt FLN bases. Brutality wins, yet outrages urban France (ie Sartre). Won military, but lost political war: De Gaulle grants indp 62.

54 The Postwar World, II Britain had easier decolonization, but still some violence. Feb 48: communists in Malaya rebel. Feb 51: UK begins serious military effort. Played Malays vs Chinese w nationalism carrot. Military stick w relentless special forces (ie SAS). 54: UK defeats communists, grant Malaysian indp. US: Vietnam not worth effort, yet still stumble in. Capitalist ally (South) a dictatorial kleptocracy. US advisors thinking of Korea (conventional, not guerilla). 59: North attacks. Build Ho Chi Minh Trail. Kennedy: we will stop advance of communism. Prob: US army not ready, nor good at learning. McNamara thinks in equations & stats, not politics of winning a war. By 64, South is collapsing. Johnson wants neither to fight nor be defeated by this piss-ant country. Britain had easier decolonization, but still some violence. Feb 48: communists in Malaya rebel. Feb 51: UK begins serious military effort. Played Malays vs Chinese w nationalism carrot. Military stick w relentless special forces (ie SAS). 54: UK defeats communists, grant Malaysian indp. US: Vietnam not worth effort, yet still stumble in. Capitalist ally (South) a dictatorial kleptocracy. US advisors thinking of Korea (conventional, not guerilla). 59: North attacks. Build Ho Chi Minh Trail. Kennedy: we will stop advance of communism. Prob: US army not ready, nor good at learning. McNamara thinks in equations & stats, not politics of winning a war. By 64, South is collapsing. Johnson wants neither to fight nor be defeated by this piss-ant country.

55 The Postwar World, III 64: Gulf of Tonkin incident = excuse for direct air raids. Communists refuse to halt (already have overcome French firepower). 65: Rolling Thunder (ltd) air raids. Also fail, = ground troops sent. South is saved. US Congress, public initially enthusiastic. No reserves called up & many exemptions for draft. Westmoreland about helicopters, firepower & attrition, not about local control or training South. 68: North gambles on Tet (boldly attack cities). Military disaster for NVA & Viet Cong, yet US public shocked--while govt could not explain reason for war. (New) Gen. Abrams focuses on Vietnamization, but is too late: US public demands an end. 64: Gulf of Tonkin incident = excuse for direct air raids. Communists refuse to halt (already have overcome French firepower). 65: Rolling Thunder (ltd) air raids. Also fail, = ground troops sent. South is saved. US Congress, public initially enthusiastic. No reserves called up & many exemptions for draft. Westmoreland about helicopters, firepower & attrition, not about local control or training South. 68: North gambles on Tet (boldly attack cities). Military disaster for NVA & Viet Cong, yet US public shocked--while govt could not explain reason for war. (New) Gen. Abrams focuses on Vietnamization, but is too late: US public demands an end.

56 The Postwar World, IV 72: last US ground forces leave. North tries 2x to humiliate US while leaving. Response is massive precision bombing campaign, which levels Northern infrastructure. Success drives communists to peace table in : North launches final drive on South. Nixon busy, Congress undercuts US support. South falls quickly w/o active US assistance. Millions flee communists. CIA fails to destroy files. US self-esteem trampled. Viet society devastated. US not recover until 80s (officer introspection & Reagan building program, ie Apache & Abrams). Reagan preparation = Iraq 90 invasion of Kuwait met w technological fury. Hussein convinced US not attk--even when 500k arrive. 72: last US ground forces leave. North tries 2x to humiliate US while leaving. Response is massive precision bombing campaign, which levels Northern infrastructure. Success drives communists to peace table in : North launches final drive on South. Nixon busy, Congress undercuts US support. South falls quickly w/o active US assistance. Millions flee communists. CIA fails to destroy files. US self-esteem trampled. Viet society devastated. US not recover until 80s (officer introspection & Reagan building program, ie Apache & Abrams). Reagan preparation = Iraq 90 invasion of Kuwait met w technological fury. Hussein convinced US not attk--even when 500k arrive.

57 The Postwar World, V 91 bombing campaign softens Iraqis. Ground campaign only 100hrs. Iraqis surrender en masse. US commanders want only win & get out. Prob: many Iraqi soldiers escaped (incl Republican Guard) & Saddam left in power. Embargoes (indirectly) kill 10,000s. Inspectors periodically thrown out. No-fly zones in N & S not prevent Kurd & Shia rebels from being crushed. Many upset US forces garrisoned on Arabian peninsula. 92: 33,000 UN tps to Somalia (28,000 from US). Oct 93: 2 Blackhawks & 18 US tps killed. Public demands immediate withdrawl. US (& West) casualty fear = idle re Rwanda, etc. ~800,000 murdered in Hutu vs Tutsi genocide. Reluctance to go to Haiti. US refuses ground troops for Balkans until late. Much of Africa ignored completely. 91 bombing campaign softens Iraqis. Ground campaign only 100hrs. Iraqis surrender en masse. US commanders want only win & get out. Prob: many Iraqi soldiers escaped (incl Republican Guard) & Saddam left in power. Embargoes (indirectly) kill 10,000s. Inspectors periodically thrown out. No-fly zones in N & S not prevent Kurd & Shia rebels from being crushed. Many upset US forces garrisoned on Arabian peninsula. 92: 33,000 UN tps to Somalia (28,000 from US). Oct 93: 2 Blackhawks & 18 US tps killed. Public demands immediate withdrawl. US (& West) casualty fear = idle re Rwanda, etc. ~800,000 murdered in Hutu vs Tutsi genocide. Reluctance to go to Haiti. US refuses ground troops for Balkans until late. Much of Africa ignored completely.

58 War Made New Potential of catastrophic terror recognized throughout 80s & 90s. Much of world already exposed to it. 9/11, however, was leap in lethality. States have long used terror, & assassination was common, but non-state political violence is recent. Contingent upon weapons (high explosives & MGs), transport (trains, cars & planes), & commn (telegraph & tv) developments. Even the small can now seriously damage & get message out (local becomes a national concern). 1) 19th C Anarchists, 2) Decolonization, 3) 60s-70s ideology/jetliner waves. WMD is new, dangerous twist. Airliners dont threaten entire cities. Nukes do. Potential of catastrophic terror recognized throughout 80s & 90s. Much of world already exposed to it. 9/11, however, was leap in lethality. States have long used terror, & assassination was common, but non-state political violence is recent. Contingent upon weapons (high explosives & MGs), transport (trains, cars & planes), & commn (telegraph & tv) developments. Even the small can now seriously damage & get message out (local becomes a national concern). 1) 19th C Anarchists, 2) Decolonization, 3) 60s-70s ideology/jetliner waves. WMD is new, dangerous twist. Airliners dont threaten entire cities. Nukes do.

59 War Made New, II Chemical weapons hated, ineffective = 1925 ban. Only used by strong vs weak (ie Iraq vs Kurds). Terrorists have tried (ie Cl trucks in Iraq), but need much material & enclosed space). Bio weapons potentially deadly (disease kills more than wars). Include anthrax, plague, Ebola, botulism, ricin, etc. Danger of engineered immunity-defeated superbugs. Nukes are 1st absolute weapon--no real way to defend against. No defence = deterrence, instead of nuclear war. Prob: terrorists are a) excessively zealous, b) provide no real target for counter-strike (thus cannot be deterred). Leaves no clear strategy (only hope arrest before strike). Chemical weapons hated, ineffective = 1925 ban. Only used by strong vs weak (ie Iraq vs Kurds). Terrorists have tried (ie Cl trucks in Iraq), but need much material & enclosed space). Bio weapons potentially deadly (disease kills more than wars). Include anthrax, plague, Ebola, botulism, ricin, etc. Danger of engineered immunity-defeated superbugs. Nukes are 1st absolute weapon--no real way to defend against. No defence = deterrence, instead of nuclear war. Prob: terrorists are a) excessively zealous, b) provide no real target for counter-strike (thus cannot be deterred). Leaves no clear strategy (only hope arrest before strike).

60 War Made New, III Central issue: diffusion of capabilities downward. Chem wpns tech in 100 countries, 20,000 labs where virus could be synthesized. Yet biotech revolution is still in its infancy : Aum Shinrikyo proved bio & chem wpns difficult to weaponize (expose in concentration). However, managed 10 bio & 10 chem attacks. US anthrax attack killed 5, & yet went undetected. Barrier to nukes: cannot hide enrichment centrifuges (ltd to states). Terrorists left w dirty bombs or purchase. Result: super-empowered angry people matter. Terrorism is the problem Reasons may change (ie militant Islam, death cults, Christian millenarianism), but tech challenge to the state will remain. Central issue: diffusion of capabilities downward. Chem wpns tech in 100 countries, 20,000 labs where virus could be synthesized. Yet biotech revolution is still in its infancy : Aum Shinrikyo proved bio & chem wpns difficult to weaponize (expose in concentration). However, managed 10 bio & 10 chem attacks. US anthrax attack killed 5, & yet went undetected. Barrier to nukes: cannot hide enrichment centrifuges (ltd to states). Terrorists left w dirty bombs or purchase. Result: super-empowered angry people matter. Terrorism is the problem Reasons may change (ie militant Islam, death cults, Christian millenarianism), but tech challenge to the state will remain.

61 War Made New, IV So what to do? Domestic security measures (ie MI5 watches 100s of suspects). Emergency preparedness (medical drills, vaccine stockpiles). Post-9/11: attack harbours & potential harbours/WMD allies (Afghanistan & Iraq). Bin Laden (wealthy, media-savvy scion, & Afghan-USSR vet). 92 fatwa vs Western troops in Arabia (is his political project). Forms al-Qaeda (The Base). $ to Somalia, Chechnya, Bosnia (at first, outsources violence). 96: moves to Afghanistan. Begins training 10-20k. Aug 98: Nairobi & Dar es Salaam bombings. BL evades Tomahawks sent in response. So what to do? Domestic security measures (ie MI5 watches 100s of suspects). Emergency preparedness (medical drills, vaccine stockpiles). Post-9/11: attack harbours & potential harbours/WMD allies (Afghanistan & Iraq). Bin Laden (wealthy, media-savvy scion, & Afghan-USSR vet). 92 fatwa vs Western troops in Arabia (is his political project). Forms al-Qaeda (The Base). $ to Somalia, Chechnya, Bosnia (at first, outsources violence). 96: moves to Afghanistan. Begins training 10-20k. Aug 98: Nairobi & Dar es Salaam bombings. BL evades Tomahawks sent in response.

62 War Made New, V Oct 00: USS Cole damaged in Yemen. No response made (b/c US election & fearful of backlash). Sept 01: 4 airliners downed. For <$500,000 & 19 suicide hijackers, 3,000 Americans killed, $bns of damage, & end US sense of invulnerability. Response: (popular) war vs AQs patron. Oct 01: Afghan War (US firepower, special forces, & local allies to overthrow Taliban). Kharzai installed by intl coalition. Elected Oct 01 Directive & 02 NSSS: is a global war, w/ no distinction btn terrorists & their harbours. $ also cut off (is a big loss for the IRA). Mar 03: Iraq invaded (US fears WMD & terrorism). Apr: Baghdad falls, yet no WMD found. Too few troops = insurgency grows, as does US (& intl) opposition. Now what? Today: lots of violence, yet few real answers. Oct 00: USS Cole damaged in Yemen. No response made (b/c US election & fearful of backlash). Sept 01: 4 airliners downed. For <$500,000 & 19 suicide hijackers, 3,000 Americans killed, $bns of damage, & end US sense of invulnerability. Response: (popular) war vs AQs patron. Oct 01: Afghan War (US firepower, special forces, & local allies to overthrow Taliban). Kharzai installed by intl coalition. Elected Oct 01 Directive & 02 NSSS: is a global war, w/ no distinction btn terrorists & their harbours. $ also cut off (is a big loss for the IRA). Mar 03: Iraq invaded (US fears WMD & terrorism). Apr: Baghdad falls, yet no WMD found. Too few troops = insurgency grows, as does US (& intl) opposition. Now what? Today: lots of violence, yet few real answers.

63 Course Feedback 1. Structure. Concept flow, assignments. 2. Content. Material covered, text, reader. 3. Lecture. Format, delivery, ppts (espec notes). 1. Structure. Concept flow, assignments. 2. Content. Material covered, text, reader. 3. Lecture. Format, delivery, ppts (espec notes).

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