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Goldfish Restaurant Application Project

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Goldfish Restaurant Located on Ashford Dunwoody Rd. in the front of Perimeter Mall. Serves Sushi, Seafood, and Steak. Average Person spends $30 per visit. Delivers fine dining experience with a fun and relaxed environment. Located on Ashford Dunwoody Rd. in the front of Perimeter Mall. Serves Sushi, Seafood, and Steak. Average Person spends $30 per visit. Delivers fine dining experience with a fun and relaxed environment.

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Objective of Project The objective of this application project is to show how independent variables affect net sales (dependent variable) at Goldfish. I will also be conducting what-if analysis and goal seek analysis to show how we can reach sales goals for the month of December 2007. The objective of this application project is to show how independent variables affect net sales (dependent variable) at Goldfish. I will also be conducting what-if analysis and goal seek analysis to show how we can reach sales goals for the month of December 2007.

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Variables FOT Discount - A loyalty program that we run throughout the company. The FOT members receive a 10% discount on their check. FOT Discount is the accumulated discount from our restaurant. Auto Gratuity - On all parties 6 or more a 18% automatic gratuity is added to the bill. Auto Gratuity is the accumulation of all automatic 18% tips added to bills. Liquor Tax - The accumulation of all taxes paid by the guests that purchase liquor at Goldfish. Net Sales - Gross Sales minus all promotions and voids. FOT Discount - A loyalty program that we run throughout the company. The FOT members receive a 10% discount on their check. FOT Discount is the accumulated discount from our restaurant. Auto Gratuity - On all parties 6 or more a 18% automatic gratuity is added to the bill. Auto Gratuity is the accumulation of all automatic 18% tips added to bills. Liquor Tax - The accumulation of all taxes paid by the guests that purchase liquor at Goldfish. Net Sales - Gross Sales minus all promotions and voids.

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Analysis The first objective of this project was to figure out what exactly affected Net Sales. I ran regression analysis to figure out what independent variables affected my dependent variable (Net Sales). After I ran regression analysis I found that three independent factors affected net sales directly. I found that FOT Discounts, Auto Gratuity, and Liquor Tax affected Net Sales directly. The formula to calculate Net Sales: Net Sales = 453765.5 + 30.4352 (FOT Discount) + 8.2083 (Auto Gratuity) + 19.1426 (Liquor Tax) The first objective of this project was to figure out what exactly affected Net Sales. I ran regression analysis to figure out what independent variables affected my dependent variable (Net Sales). After I ran regression analysis I found that three independent factors affected net sales directly. I found that FOT Discounts, Auto Gratuity, and Liquor Tax affected Net Sales directly. The formula to calculate Net Sales: Net Sales = 453765.5 + 30.4352 (FOT Discount) + 8.2083 (Auto Gratuity) + 19.1426 (Liquor Tax)

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Analysis (Cont) The next step will be forecasting the independent variables for the month of December 2007. The first forecast I will run will be for FOT Discounts. I will factor in seasonality and do a three month moving average to calculate to forecast. Results: Shown in the Graph below are 4398.919 The next step will be forecasting the independent variables for the month of December 2007. The first forecast I will run will be for FOT Discounts. I will factor in seasonality and do a three month moving average to calculate to forecast. Results: Shown in the Graph below are 4398.919 Jun-073981.6501.0473801.8333672.357129.4773846.050135.600 Jul-073547.1900.9793621.7263723.004-101.2773646.383-99.193 Aug-073148.9801.0113115.6913742.390-626.6993782.375-633.395 Sep-070.8453513.0842970.106 Oct-070.8323416.8342842.533 Nov-070.7473348.5362501.811 Dec-071.2843426.151 4398.919 Jan-081.0053397.1743413.969

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Analysis (Cont) I will next do the exact same forecasting for the month of December 2007 for the independent variable Auto Gratuity. I will factor in seasonality and use a three month moving average for Auto Gratuity as well. Results: Shown in the graph below the variable for Auto Gratuity is 19561.363 I will next do the exact same forecasting for the month of December 2007 for the independent variable Auto Gratuity. I will factor in seasonality and use a three month moving average for Auto Gratuity as well. Results: Shown in the graph below the variable for Auto Gratuity is 19561.363 Jun-0717128.3901.01916801.79217422.561-620.76917761.226-632.836 Jul-0716147.2501.00516067.54117162.076-1094.53617247.216-1099.966 Aug-0715672.0401.01315469.02716926.488-1457.46117148.629-1476.589 Sep-070.87916112.78614167.013 Oct-070.90515883.11814378.009 Nov-070.78315821.64412386.233 Dec-071.22715939.183 19561.363 Jan-081.00615881.31515978.211

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Analysis (Cont) The last independent variable that shows a relationship with Net Sales is Liquor Tax. I will forecast Liquor Tax for December 2007 factoring in seasonality and using a three month moving average. Results: As shown in the graph below the factor for Liquor Tax for December 2007 is 5591.227. The last independent variable that shows a relationship with Net Sales is Liquor Tax. I will forecast Liquor Tax for December 2007 factoring in seasonality and using a three month moving average. Results: As shown in the graph below the factor for Liquor Tax for December 2007 is 5591.227. Jun-075744.9601.0435508.4885109.254399.2355328.587416.373 Jul-075556.4101.0315390.5955249.936140.6595411.424144.986 Aug-075453.6101.1114908.8095315.319-406.5105905.236-451.626 Sep-070.9275269.2974885.754 Oct-070.9185189.5674762.875 Nov-070.8745122.5584477.392 Dec-071.0775193.807 5591.227 Jan-080.9865168.6445095.756

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Analysis (Cont) I now have all the factors I need for my independent variables. I can now insert them into my regression formula. Dec-07 Sales = 453765.5 + 30.4352(4398.919) + 8.2083(19561.36349) + 19.1426 (5591.22677) I now have all the factors I need for my independent variables. I can now insert them into my regression formula. Dec-07 Sales = 453765.5 + 30.4352(4398.919) + 8.2083(19561.36349) + 19.1426 (5591.22677)

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Implementation Now that I have my formula I can insert that information into a DSS. MonthDec-07 FOT Discount4398.919 Auto Gratuity19561.36349 Liquor Tax5591.22677 Projected Sales855243.6435

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Implementation Once I have created my DSS I can now do what-if analysis and goal seek analysis.

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What-if Analysis Scenario one: I would now like to know how my independent variables affect Net Sales by performing sensitivity analysis. I will focus on FOT Discounts. I believe that the FOT member spends on average $25 per visit per person. This means that the projected amount of discount for FOT members is 4398.919 x 10 equals the projected amount of money spent by FOT members. About $43,989.20 is spent by FOT members. If the members on average spend about $25 then 1,760 members approximately will dine at Goldfish during the month of December. Scenario one: I would now like to know how my independent variables affect Net Sales by performing sensitivity analysis. I will focus on FOT Discounts. I believe that the FOT member spends on average $25 per visit per person. This means that the projected amount of discount for FOT members is 4398.919 x 10 equals the projected amount of money spent by FOT members. About $43,989.20 is spent by FOT members. If the members on average spend about $25 then 1,760 members approximately will dine at Goldfish during the month of December.

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What-if Analysis (Cont) My manager would like to see how increasing the amount of FOT members who dine at Goldfish will increase our Net Sales. My manager would like to know how an extra 250 visits from our loyal customers will affect our Net Sales. 250(more visits) x $25 (average amount spent) x 10% discount = 625. 4398.919(original FOT Discount #) + 625(additional FOT Discount from 250 more visits) = 5023.19 Our sales increased about $19,000!! My manager would like to see how increasing the amount of FOT members who dine at Goldfish will increase our Net Sales. My manager would like to know how an extra 250 visits from our loyal customers will affect our Net Sales. 250(more visits) x $25 (average amount spent) x 10% discount = 625. 4398.919(original FOT Discount #) + 625(additional FOT Discount from 250 more visits) = 5023.19 Our sales increased about $19,000!! MonthDec-07 FOT Discount5023.190 Auto Gratuity19561.36349 Liquor Tax5591.22677 Projected Sales874243.4498

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Goal Seek Analysis Scenario Two: My manager then asked me if we wanted to hit $900,000 in sales for December 2007 how many more FOT visits will we need to get? I can use Goal Seek in Excel to figure out the total discounts given to our FOT members: Scenario Two: My manager then asked me if we wanted to hit $900,000 in sales for December 2007 how many more FOT visits will we need to get? I can use Goal Seek in Excel to figure out the total discounts given to our FOT members: MonthDec-07 FOT Discount5869.465 Auto Gratuity19561.36349 Liquor Tax5591.22677 Projected Sales900000

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Goal Seek Analysis Keeping the factors the same as the first scenario with the average amount spent by FOT members per visit per person is $25. To reach the managers goal of $900,000 in Net Sales for December 2007 we need to give 5869.465 discounts to FOT members. This means we need to get about 590 more visits from FOT members to increase our sales to $900,000 for December 2007. We could do this by running a promotion only for FOT members to entice them to come dine with us at Goldfish. Keeping the factors the same as the first scenario with the average amount spent by FOT members per visit per person is $25. To reach the managers goal of $900,000 in Net Sales for December 2007 we need to give 5869.465 discounts to FOT members. This means we need to get about 590 more visits from FOT members to increase our sales to $900,000 for December 2007. We could do this by running a promotion only for FOT members to entice them to come dine with us at Goldfish.

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