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Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - 2005 Presented June 14, 15, 2005 by Zigong International Marketing, LLC 421 High Street, Fairport Harbor, OH 44077,

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Presentation on theme: "Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - 2005 Presented June 14, 15, 2005 by Zigong International Marketing, LLC 421 High Street, Fairport Harbor, OH 44077,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference Presented June 14, 15, 2005 by Zigong International Marketing, LLC 421 High Street, Fairport Harbor, OH 44077, USA China Tungsten Today

2 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC JV subsidiary of the Zigong Cemented Carbide Company (ZCCC)

3 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC JV subsidiary of the Zigong Cemented Carbide Company (ZCCC) ZCCC is the second largest producer of carbide products in China and in the top 15 world wide

4 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC JV subsidiary of the Zigong Cemented Carbide Company (ZCCC) ZCCC is the second largest producer of carbide products in China and in the top 15 world wide Exports more than 3,000 mt of tungsten products annually

5 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC JV subsidiary of the Zigong Cemented Carbide Company (ZCCC) ZCCC is the second largest producer of carbide products in China and in the top 15 world wide Exports more than 3,000 mt of tungsten products annually 4,000 mt carbide capacity, over 3,000 employees

6 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Tungsten in China Considered a National Strategic Material

7 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Tungsten in China Considered a National Strategic Material Identified as a State Trading Commodity by the WTO

8 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Tungsten in China Considered a National Strategic Material Identified as a State Trading Commodity by the WTO Exports controlled by licenses starting in 2001/APT/AMT/BTO/YTO/W/WC/Cast/scrap/SW/ CaW/W Acid

9 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Tungsten in China Considered a National Strategic Material Identified as a State Trading Commodity by the WTO Exports controlled by licenses starting in 2001/APT/AMT/BTO/YTO/W/WC/Cast/scrap/SW/ CaW/W Acid Majority of world tungsten supply and resources are from or in China (75%)

10 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC License Situation 17,000 mt in 2001

11 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC License Situation 17,000 mt in ,200 mt in 2004

12 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC License Situation 17,000 mt in ,200 mt in 2004 Ran out of licenses in October 2004

13 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC License Situation 17,000 mt in ,200 mt in 2004 Ran out of licenses in October 2004 First half ,100 mt vs. 11,500 mt in 2004

14 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC License Situation 17,000 mt in ,200 mt in 2004 Ran out of licenses in October 2004 First half ,100 mt vs. 11,500 mt in 2004 Total 2005 to be slightly lower than 2004

15 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC License Situation 17,000 mt in ,200 mt in 2004 Ran out of licenses in October 2004 First half ,100 mt vs. 11,500 mt in 2004 Total 2005 to be slightly lower than 2004 We expect a license shortage later in 2005

16 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC License Situation 17,000 mt in ,200 mt in 2004 Ran out of licenses in October 2004 First half ,100 mt vs. 11,500 mt in 2004 Total 2005 to be slightly lower than 2004 We expect a license shortage later in 2005 Only a few companies have access to these licenses – Minmetals/Xiamen/Zhou Zhou/ Zigong/Nanchang are the primary exporters

17 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Export Statistics: Q vs. Q (mt of material) APT/AMT/ST1,502 1,301 YTO/BTO/Acid2,217 1,921 W/WC/Cast 888 1,071 FeW1, Totals5,686 5,234 (Source: Mr. Fang Jinyun, Minmetals Head Office, Beijing) Thanks Fang.

18 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased 1. Demand (oil/coal/global/China growth)/ Supply Balance

19 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased 1. Demand (oil/coal/global/China growth)/ Supply Balance Mines: 2.Shut for Environmental Adjustment

20 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased 1. Demand (oil/coal/global/China growth)/ Supply Balance Mines: 2.Shut for Environmental Adjustment 3.Purchased by new owners (Minmetals)

21 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased 1. Demand (oil/coal/global/China growth)/ Supply Balance Mines: 2.Shut for Environmental Adjustment 3.Purchased by new owners (Minmetals) 4.Miners realized they really control the market

22 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased 1. Demand (oil/coal/global/China growth)/ Supply Balance Mines: 2.Shut for Environmental Adjustment 3.Purchased by new owners (Minmetals) 4.Miners realized they really control the market 5.Need to make money after years of suffering

23 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased 1. Demand (oil/coal/global/China growth)/ Supply Balance Mines: 2.Shut for Environmental Adjustment 3.Purchased by new owners (Minmetals) 4.Miners realized they really control the market 5.Need to make money after years of suffering 6.Lack of Water

24 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased 1. Demand (oil/coal/global/China growth)/ Supply Balance Mines: 2.Shut for Environmental Adjustment 3.Purchased by new owners (Minmetals) 4.Miners realized they really control the market 5.Need to make money after years of suffering 6.Lack of Water 7.Lack of Electricity

25 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased (continued) 8.Few new resources being developed

26 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased (continued) 8.Few new resources being developed 9.No one believed the warning signs (lean craze)

27 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Top 10 Reasons Tungsten Price Has Increased (continued) 8.Few new resources being developed 9.No one believed the warning signs (lean craze) 10.Speculators, greed

28 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Current Supply and Price Situation Supply chain from China to west is empty

29 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Current Supply and Price Situation Supply chain from China to west is empty Consumer inventories are in general, low

30 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Current Supply and Price Situation Supply chain from China to west is empty Consumer inventories are in general, low Speculators still active/traders reenter the market

31 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Current Supply and Price Situation Supply chain from China to west is empty Consumer inventories are in general, low Speculators still active/traders reenter the market Prices for YTO/BTO over $300 per MTU

32 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Current Supply and Price Situation Supply chain from China to west is empty Consumer inventories are in general, low Speculators still active/traders reenter the market Prices for YTO/BTO over $300 per MTU Near by shortage situation should remain until the fall

33 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Current Supply and Price Situation Supply chain from China to west is empty Consumer inventories are in general, low Speculators still active/traders reenter the market Prices for YTO/BTO over $300 per MTU Near term shortage situation should remain until the fall No near term reason for prices to decline significantly

34 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC The DLA & Chinese National Stockpile The US DLA stockpile of tungsten, while huge, is of declining quality and of little benefit to most global tungsten concentrate consumers.

35 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC The DLA & Chinese National Stockpile The US DLA stockpile of tungsten, while huge, is of declining quality and of little benefit to most global tungsten concentrate consumers. Releasing more material from the DLA is not a solution. Few can use it/time to market/no price relief.

36 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC The DLA & Chinese National Stockpile The US DLA stockpile of tungsten, while huge, is of declining quality and of little benefit to most global tungsten concentrate consumers. Releasing more material from the DLA is not a solution. Few can use it/time to market/no price relief. China has a stockpile. Is strategic in nature and not for market interventions.

37 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC The DLA & Chinese National Stockpile The US DLA stockpile of tungsten, while huge, is of declining quality and of little benefit to most global tungsten concentrate consumers. Releasing more material from the DLA is not a solution. Few can use it/time to market/no price relief. China has a stockpile. Is strategic in nature and not for market interventions. Stockpiles are really bad for markets and producers.

38 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Results and Implications The costs of doing business has tripled. A container of Blue Oxide used to cost $200k, it now cost $600k.

39 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Results and Implications The costs of doing business has tripled. A container of Blue Oxide used to cost $200k, it now cost $600k. Carbide companies failed to translate increasing raw material prices into higher finished goods prices. A major increase in cemented carbide prices needs to take place.

40 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Results and Implications The costs of doing business has tripled. A container of Blue Oxide used to cost $200k, it now cost $600k. Carbide companies failed to translate increasing raw material prices into higher finished goods prices. A major increase in cemented carbide prices needs to take place. Some companies could run out of material. However, where there is a high price, there is a way.

41 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Results and Implications The costs of doing business has tripled. A container of Blue Oxide used to cost $200k, it now cost $600k. Carbide companies failed to translate increasing raw material prices into higher finished goods prices. A major increase in cemented carbide prices needs to take place. Some companies could run out of material. However, where there is a high price, there is a way. As the supply and demand remain close to balanced, price volatility will exists.

42 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Results and Implications The costs of doing business has tripled. A container of Blue Oxide used to cost $200k, it now cost $600k. Carbide companies failed to translate increasing raw material prices into higher finished goods prices. A major increase in cemented carbide prices needs to take place. Some companies could run out of material. However, where there is a high price, there is a way. As the supply and demand remain close to balanced, price volatility will exists. What goes up must come down- the bubble will burst.

43 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Results and Implications The costs of doing business has tripled. A container of Blue Oxide used to cost $200k, it now cost $600k. Carbide companies failed to translate increasing raw material prices into higher finished goods prices. A major increase in cemented carbide prices needs to take place. Some companies could run out of material. However, where there is a high price, there is a way. As the supply and demand remain close to balanced, price volatility will exists. What goes up must come down- the bubble will burst. License situation will be critical later in the year.

44 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Results and Implications The costs of doing business has tripled. A container of Blue Oxide used to cost $200k, it now cost $600k. Carbide companies failed to translate increasing raw material prices into higher finished goods prices. A major increase in cemented carbide prices needs to take place. Some companies could run out of material. However, where there is a high price, there is a way. As the supply and demand remain close to balanced, price volatility will exists. What goes up must come down- the bubble will burst. License situation will be critical later in the year. LMB and other publications no longer reliable indicators of price.

45 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Solutions 1.Ore prices which justify future resource development.

46 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Solutions 1.Ore prices which justify future resource development. 2.Better Supplier / Consumer relationships.

47 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Solutions 1.Ore prices which justify future resource development. 2.Better Supplier / Consumer relationships. 3.Pricing structures which allow profitability at all levels.

48 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Solutions 1.Ore prices which justify future resource development. 2.Better Supplier / Consumer relationships. 3.Pricing structures which allow profitability at all levels. 4.More accurate mechanism for material pricing besides publication reports.

49 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference - June 2005 Zigong International Marketing, LLC Solutions 1.Ore prices which justify future resource development. 2.Better Supplier / Consumer relationships. 3.Pricing structures which allow profitability at all levels. 4.More accurate mechanism for material pricing besides publication reports. 5.As the cemented carbide industry consolidates into a few huge global companies and a smattering of regional companies, change will have to come in the supply chain.

50 Platts Steel & Ferroalloys Conference Presented June 14, 15, 2005 by Zigong International Marketing, LLC 421 High Street, Fairport Harbor, OH 44077, USA Thank You!


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