12 Returns Always calculate returns on an annualized basis
13 Calculate the annualized return You have an outstanding balance of $500 on your credit card. You are late in paying and were only able to pay the minimum $10. Your APR on the card is 22% above prime. The late payment charge is $35. Assume the prime rate is 7% now.
15 Calculating lost return You want to buy a HDTV set for $1500. What is this (future) costing you? (Use 20 years and 8% return. We use 8% because its historically the rate of return on investments over a long period of time.) –$1785 –$3393 –$4837 –$6991
16 You are a typical employee in your 20s who when you left your job in 2005 cashed out (66% do) your 401K account of less than $10,000. What is the cost of cashing out your account if your balance was $8000? Calculating lost return
17 Which is more? Saving $4000 a year from 25 to 45 years old and then no more savings but hold in account Saving $8000 (double) a year from 45 to 65 years old
18 Its a moving target House in 10 years. Todays price $200,000 Kids college education in 18 years. Todays price $50,000 2% inflation 3% inflation?
19 Thats not the only uncertainty $800,000 retirement goal in 30 years At 8% returns? At 10% returns?
20 The financial plan Katie is 25 and trying to plan her financial future. Here are her financial goals in todays dollars (black) and inflated to when they are due (red).
21 Katie does her plan and knows that her heaviest savings will happen in her 30s and 40s. She also does sensitivity analysis on various inflation and return rates. She knows that she should save as much as she can when she is younger.
27 Lessons to learn: If you want a higher return, you need to invest in riskier assets (stocks) The more return, the more risk. 322% gain guaranteed? Only if 322% loss guaranteed! Return versus Risk
28 Given the same return, the investment with less risk is better
39 Lesson? Buy and hold market index funds (doesnt work for individual stocks) Have an emergency fund (3 to 6 months) to tide you over Have other sources of income so you dont have to cash out during down markets
41 All eggs in one basket? 34.6 percent of families had stock in only one company 59.5 percent had stock in three or fewer companies 9.5 percent had stock in fifteen or more companies Source: 2004 Consumer Finance Survey
50 Investment Advice Take care in choosing your advisor –Experienced –Relevant education –Certified by professional body –Check for disciplinary actions (www.dfi.wa.gov) Dont invest in anything you dont understand Watch what your advisor does
52 Monitor Your Investments Rebalance periodically – but if you buy and sell a lot you will lose money Change allocation if you have different cash flow requirements Risk and return - Prune the low return/high risk investments Dont make whipsaw changes to your asset allocation
53 The Roadmap Save Focus on financial goals Understand returns Understand risk Asset allocation Monitor your investments