1. The American-Israel Demographic Research Group (AIDRG)
Arab Population
In Judea, Samaria & Gaza
The Million Person Gap
PCBS
2009 Population 4 Million
PCBS: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics
Report prepared by:
The American-Israel
Demographic Research Group
(AIDRG)
Fewer Births
Net Negative Migration
Jerusalem Arab Population
Double-Count
USA Research Team
Bennett Zimmerman
Roberta Seid, Ph.D.
Michael Wise, Ph.D.
Israel Research Team
Yoram Ettinger
Brig. Gen (Ret.) David Shahaf
Prof. Ezra Sohar
Dr. David Passig
Avraham Shvout
Yakov Faitelson
Residents Living Abroad
Study Result
2009 Population 2.8 Million
Bennett Zimmerman & Roberta Seid, Ph.D.
Copyright 2009All Rights Reserved

2. Israeli and Arab Population Data
Judea, Samaria and Gaza
(1996 & 2007)
PCBS 2007 population total for
Judea & Samaria and Gaza was
3.8 million, 90% above the ICBS
1996 figure of 2.1 million.
The two central bureaus of statistics
cannot be accurate since…
Such growth would indicate a
compound annual growth rate
of 5.5% per annum, almost twice as high as the leading countries in the world, such as Afghanistan, Sierra Leon, Somalia, Niger and Eritrea.
Millions of People
3.8MN
4.0
3.0
2.1MN
2.0
1.0
1996
2007
Israel Central
Bureau of Statistics
(ICBS)
Palestine Central
Bureau of Statistics
(PCBS)
Source: ICBS, Final Assessments of Population in Judea, Samaria & Gaza, 1996, Julia Zemel, December 22, 1997;
Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Territory,

3. Arab Population in Judea&Samaria and Gaza
1997 PCBS Census and Projection
( )
Millions of People
6.0
The December 1997 census is the
basis for the current PCBS data.
1997 PCBS: 2.78 Million
2009 PCBS: 4 Million
PCBS assumption: 3.1% annual
population growth rate.
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0 ‘
Source: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Territory,
When 2007 PCBS population numbers (3.8 million) is combined with Israeli Arab
population (1.4 million), the number of Arabs is now – supposedly - almost equal to the
number of Jews west of the Jordan River. Given this rapid Arab growth,
Israeli Jews would rapidly – supposedly - become a minority.

4. Beginning Base Population + Births - Deaths + Immigration - Emigration
Arab Population
In Judea, Samaria & Gaza
The Million Person Gap
Methodology
Population measurement requires accurate recording and verification of:
Beginning Base Population
+ Births
- Deaths
+ Immigration
- Emigration
= Ending Base Population
Study investigated the 1997 PCBS numbers, factor by factor, against data
released each year by other PA and Israeli governmental agencies.

5. Examination of the base population data
(1997 PCBS Census)
Before Census
Census Era
Millions of People
4.0
3.0
24K Half-Year Growth
210K Jerusalem Arabs
325K Residents Abroad
113K Additional Increase
648K Total excess over ICBS
2.78MN
2.27MN
2.111MN
2.0
1.0
December 1996
ICBS Report
December 1996
PA Health Ministry
June 1997
PCBS Census
A 30% inflation is documented in the 1997 census, which is the Palestinian base population data.
3%-5% was the ICBS-PCBS gap until the 1997 census.
ICBS’ accuracy is validated, when examined against Palestinian agencies.

6. Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census
Inclusion of Residents Living Abroad
“We counted 325,000 people living outside of the Palestinian lands for more than one year, who carry Palestinian ID cards and can return at any time. This number is a minimum, and is not precise because we could not contact all the families living abroad.”
Hassan Abu Libdah
Head of PCBS
News Conference held at Al-Bireh
“The First Results of the Census”
February 26, 1998
According to internationally accepted demographic standards, overseas residents who are abroad for over a year are not counted demographically. Israel abides by such standards; the PCBS does not.

7. Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census
Inclusion of Residents Living Abroad
Census Coverage
A comprehensive population enumeration always depends on the essence and the nature of the census. In general, population censuses cover all persons residing within the limits of a certain country, at a specific time. A population census is based on the following:
De-facto Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their existence in the area of enumeration at census moment, regardless of their usual place of residence.
De-jure Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their usual place of residence, regardless of their presence at the census moment.
For the first ever Palestinian census, the de-facto approach was adopted with some exceptions. The census count included the following categories:
A – The Categories underwent complete data collection.
1. All persons present in the Palestinian territories on the census reference date, irrespective of nationality, purpose of stay and place of residence in the Palestinian territories.
2. All temporarily living abroad (for one year prior to the night of the reference date) and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories. Those persons are enumerated as parts of their households.
3. All Palestinians studying abroad irrespective of the study period and the period of stay abroad along with all Palestinian detainees in the Israeli jails regardless of the detention period.
B – Palestinian abroad: Categories underwent data collection on their numbers and sex only This category includes Palestinians who live abroad for more than one year and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories and have identity cards (except for students and detainees enumerated in the previous category) irrespective of the purpose of stay abroad.

8. Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, 2007 Census Coverage (per PCBS website)
“The PHC-2007 has been conducted on the basis of de-facto, taking into consideration minor local circumstances.”
“This approach is identical to the implementation of PHC-1997.”

9. PA Central Election Commission (CEC)
Eligible Adult (18 year old and older) Documentation
October 2004 & January 2005 Voting Reports
Millions of People
2.5
2.0
“Adults expected to be 18 and above by 2004”
1.85MN
1.5MN
1.5
1.3MN
13%
Abroad
1.3MN
1.3M
87%
Resident
1.0
0.5
CEC October 2004 Voting Report
1.3MN Eligible Voters
Resident in Territories
200K Eligible Voters Abroad
ICBS 1996
+ 8 Years
Less deaths and emigration
PCBS Forecast
(2004)
The October 2004 CEC Voting Report, with specific information on 1.3 million adults living in the Territories, undermines the original 1997 PA Projection and confirms that the 1997 Census Base included Palestinians living abroad. The residential base measured by the ICBS in the mid-1990s produces an exact match with the 1.3 million residents found on current CEC voter rolls.

10. vs. Births documented by PA Ministry of Health
Births/Year
PCBS Birth Numbers
vs. Births documented by PA Ministry of Health
PCBS
Thousands
of Births/Year
PA Ministry of Health
160
120 80 40
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
A 40,000 annual gap between PCBS births and PA Ministry of Health recorded births. Documentation covers village mid-wives and clinics. Home deliveries: around 5% only.
Documentation is essential for daily movement, for using international passages (800,000 annual exits/entries), for UNRWA child allowances, for access to Israel (work, education, business, health, BG Airport, recreation, visits).

11. Births documented by PA Ministry of Health
Births/Year
Births documented by PA Ministry of Health
confirmed by PA Ministry of Education Records
PA Ministry
Of Education
1st Grade Students
6 Years Later
Thousands
of Births/Year
= PCBS numbers
= PA Ministry of Health
documentation
160
120
2003
2004 80 40
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
About 100% of 6 year old children register to first grade, according to the World Bank, European and Israeli studies. A high dropout rate starts at 3rd grade.
PA Ministry of Health’s documentation of births is compatible with PA Ministry of Education’s documentation of first graders registration (6 years later). Both are well below PCBS numbers.
Arab fertility decline in Judea & Samaria: Annual births stabilization between 1995 and 2008.

12. PCBS 1997 Net-Immigration Assumption
Migration/Year
PCBS 1997 Net-Immigration Assumption
Net Entries(Exits)
In Thousands/Year
160
120 80 40
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
PCBS population numbers included an assumption of 45,000 net immigration annually,
beginning 2001 until 2015.
The eruption of Intifadah II in Sept has precluded net immigration, but Israel’s
demographic establishment never examined the PCBS and was unaware of its assumptions.

13. Migration/Year Actual Israel Border Net-Emigration Data
PCBS 1997 Net-Immigration Assumption VS
Actual Israel Border Net-Emigration Data
Net Entries (Exits)
In Thousands/Year
160
120
= PCBS 1997
Projection 80
= Actual Israel
Border Data 40
Post Oslo
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
The PCBS 1997 assumption of mass immigration into Judea, Samaria and Gaza: 45,000 annually since 2001! Border data showed net emigration of 10-20,000 persons each year since 1997: 10, , 16,000 – 2005, 25,000 – 2006, 25,000 – 2007, 28, Since 1950, only 6 years featured net-immigration. Thus, the PCBS included – since ,000 persons each year that were not present.

14. Migration to Israel’s Green Line Legal migrants only – Double Count
From 1993 – 2003, over 150,000 residents of Judea & Samaria and Gaza received Israeli IDs
under family reunification programs (105,000 since 1997). They are doubly-counted (as “Green
Line” Arabs and as West Bankers. This phenomenon was stopped by a 2003 amendment to the
Citizenship Law (Source: November 2003 Population Authority, Israel Ministry of Interior
Report.)

15. Study Results Year by Year Detail
Population models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and ending
points, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates use
information released by the PCBS to build population forecasts.

16. PCBS’ 2.5 million: 66% “inflation” PCBS’ 4 million: 1.2 million gap
Study Results:
PCBS’ 2.5 million:
66% “inflation”
PCBS’ 4 million:
1.2 million gap
Population models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and ending
points, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates use – without scrutiny - information released by the PCBS to build population forecasts.

17. Errors in PCBS Projection
The Million Person Gap
(By Mid-Year 2004) }
Millions of People
PCBS Numbers:
3.83 Million Total
2.42 Million J&S
1.41 Million Gaza
4.0
Deaths Difference: 33K
PA MOH Births Difference: 238K
Birth Alterations Difference: 70K
3.5
Immigration &
Emigration Error Difference: 310K
“The 1.34 Million
Person Gap”
Migration to Israel Difference: 105K
3.0
Jerusalem Arabs Difference: 210K
Residents
Living Abroad Difference: 325K
2.5
Jump Over ICBS Difference: 113K
AIDRG Findings:
2.49 Million Total
1.41 Million J&S
1.08 Million Gaza
2.0

18. Israel, Judea, Samaria and Gaza
Population Breakdown
Israel, Judea, Samaria and Gaza
(2009)
Israeli
Arabs
West Bank
Arabs
Israeli
Arabs
West Bank
Arabs
Israeli
Arabs
Gaza
Arabs
Jewish Affiliated
Jews
Jews
Jews
Israel
& J&S
67% Jewish
2:1 Jewish/Arab Ratio
Since the 1960s
Israel
81% Jewish
4:1 Jewish/Arab Ratio
Israel
J&S
and Gaza
59% Jewish
3:2 Jewish/Arab Ratio

19. Trend of Population Growth
Judea & Samaria
Trend of Population Growth
( )
Annual Population
Growth Rates
Israeli Administration ’67-92
Pre-Fall Surge:
Health Improvements
Infant mortality declines
Life expectancy increases
Net-emigration decreases
4.0%
-- Population Growth rate 1.8%
-- Declining Birthrate
--High Emigration
--Family Planning
--Teen pregnancy declines
--Record High Median Wedding Age
--Expanded Education
--Record divorce rate
--From rural to poor urban
3.0%
Jordanian Period
Low population Growth rate 0.9%
High fertility rate
High infant mortality rate
High Net-Emigration
2.0%
1.0%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2008
As evidenced by global precedents of integration between Western World and Third
World societies, an initial significant growth is a prelude to a substantial decline.
Growth rates in J&S are experiencing the normal stages of population development.
Growth rates for J&S are approaching levels of a developed Western society and trend
toward Israeli Jews growth rates.

20. Arab Population
In the West Bank & Gaza
The Million Person Gap
Contact Information
In USA:
Mr. Bennett Zimmerman
Ph:
Arab Population in the West Bank and Gaza: The Million Person Gap was presented at the January 2006 Herzliya Conference. The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies published the Study in February The original study can be found at

21. “Green Line” Jews and Moslems
Total Fertility Rates (TFR) Gap
“Green Line” Jews and Moslems
1960 – 2008
Total Fertility Rate
Births/Woman 10
9.23
9.22
8.47
Jews
Moslems 8
7.25 6
5.54
4.70
4.67
4.67
4.36 4
3.5
3.39
3.36
3.28
3.00
2.8
2.80
2.79
2.71
2.62
2.62 2
1960/
1964
1965/
1969
1970/
1974
1975/
1979
1980/
1984
1985/
1989
1990/
1994
1995/
1999
2004
2008
Source:
Israel Central Bureau of Statistics
Forecasts for Israel apply past high fertility rates to future forecast, despite long-term decline in Israel Arab fertility. Fertility gap plunged from 6 births per woman to 0.7.
2008 – Arab fertility rate declines to 3.5 births per woman; Jewish fertility rate grows to 2.8.

22. “Green Line” Jews and Arabs
Total Fertility Rates (TFR) Gap
“Green Line” Jews and Arabs
Total Fertility Rate
Births/Woman 5
Jews
Arabs 4
4.40
4.22
4.17
4. 00 3
3.5
2.8
2.73
2.71
2.66
2.64 2 1
2000
2002
2003
2004
2007
Israeli Jewish Fertility rates, the highest in the industrialized world, have stabilized and even
started to rise across the board in all sectors (Orthodox, secular, and Olim from USSR).
After plateauing from 1985 – 2000, Israeli Arab fertility rates have been steadily falling.
2007 – 3.5 Arab TFR and 2.8 Jewish TFR. From a 6 children gap Arab-Jewish TFR gap in the 1960s to 0.7 gap in 2008.

23. Demographic Momentum in the “Green Line” Jewish Births vs. Arab Births
Jews
Arabs
121
Jewish Births vs. Arab Births
112
109.2
Thousands
of births
103.6
104.4
105.2
100
98.6
95.6
95.2
92.6
91.3
88.3
80.4 80 60
40.8
41.4
41.4 40
39.4
40.9
40.9 39 39
36.5
36.2
38.8
38.8 39 20
1995
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2009
Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics
Since 1995 (80,400) annual Jewish births have increased by 50% (121,000
in 2009), while Arab births have stabilized at 39,500. Jewish births
accounted to 69% in 1995, 74% in 2007 and 75.5% in 2009, trending upward.

24. Convergence in Fertility Intentions
“Gallup” Survey on Ideal Family Size
Convergence in Fertility Intentions
Children per Family
What is the ideal number of children in a family? 8 6
5.26
5.07
4.52
4.55
4.40
4.17 4
3.88
3.85
3.68
3.68
3.59
3.52
3.73
3.06 2
Traditional
Orthodox
30-49
20-29
15-19
30-49
20-29
15-19
Secular
50+
50+
Israel
Jews
Israel
Arabs
West Bank Arabs
Source:
Gallup News Service, “Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis”, Lydia Saad, March
Desired family size is now the same for Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs
Young West Bank Arabs desire a family size only one-half a child higher than young Israelis

25. Convergence in Fertility Intentions
“Gallup” Survey on Ideal Family Size
Convergence in Fertility Intentions
“Gallup” Comments
“There is not a large difference [in fertility intentions] in a region where fertility could be a
potent political tool The possibility that the once burgeoning Palestinian Arab population
in Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip will eventually be the majority in that region has
been widely accepted as a looming threat to Israel However the assumption that
Palestinians will eventually out-number the Jewish population in the region has come
under recent criticism.
“The recent Gallup data is instructive because there is clearly an element of personal
choice in having children, and thus Gallup finds strong evidence that people’s preferred
family size has a strong bearing on actual fertility rates. Gallup has been measuring
American’s notion of ideal number of children since 1936, the trend lines for preferred
number of children and the U.S. are quite parallel.
“Gallup finds no difference in preferred number of children by age in Israel, but does
among [younger] Palestinians.
-- Lydia Saad, “Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis”,
Gallup News Service, March

26. Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews
Israel’s Official Forecast
( )
Total Fertility Rates
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.6
2.6
High Scenario
2.50
2.4
Medium Scenario
2.1
Low Scenario
2.00
The ICBS assumed Jewish fertility rates (births expected per woman) would decrease from
2.6 in 2000 to 2.4 in 2025.
Net Immigration was expected to drop from 10,000/year to 7,000/year in the high case
and 4,000/year to -2,000 emigration in the low case

27. Actual Fertility vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews
( )
Total Fertility Rates
4.00
Actuals
3.50
3.00
2.6
2.6
2.50
2.4
2.1
2.00
Actual fertility rates for the Jewish sector were higher - annually - than the highest rates
Considered by the ICBS in its forecast.

28. Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems
Israel’s Official Forecast
( )
Total Fertility Rates
4.7
4.7
High Case Scenario
4.50
4.00
3.8
Medium Case Scenario
3.50
3.00
2.1
2.6
Low Case Scenario
2.50
2.00
The ICBS assumed Moslem fertility rates (births expected per woman) would remain
stable at 4.7 in the high case scenario and gradually drop to 2.6 in the low case scenario
No immigration or emigration scenarios were considered for the sector

29. Actuals vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems
( )
Total Fertility Rates
4.7
4.7
4.50
Moslem
Actuals
Moslems , %
Christians %
Druze %
Total Arab 1,
4.00
3.8
3.50
Total Arab
3.00
2.6
2.50
2.00
Actual fertility rates for Moslems (especially) and for Arabs were decreasing 20 years faster than ICBS projections.

30. West Bank & Gaza Education Sector Analysis The World Bank, September 7,
The enrollment rate for grade 1 is almost 100%.
PCBS projected a 24% increase in age 6 during (almost 4% population growth rate expected).
Enrollment to 1 grade decreased by 8% (page 8).
32% gap cause: fertility decline and emigration increase.
Higher education enrollment doubled during last decade. 44% of age group were in full-time education in Similar enrolment by refugees and non-refugees.
22% of year old women have post-primary education, compared with 10% among year old women.

31. UNESCO’s Director General, May 22, 2007: “an abrupt slowdown in the rate of growth... also in many countries where women have only limited access to education and employment... There is not the slightest reason to assume that the decline in fertility will miraculously stop just at replacement level (2.1 births per woman)...”
UN Population Division: Sharp decline in Muslim fertility rates – except Yemen and Afghanistan – is mostly responsible for a 25% reduction in population projections.
Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC: “[AIDRG] caught the demographic profession asleep at the switch.