Presentation on theme: "Arab Population In Judea, Samaria & Gaza The Million Person Gap PCBS 2009 Population 4 Million Bennett Zimmerman & Roberta Seid, Ph.D. Copyright 2009All."— Presentation transcript:
Arab Population In Judea, Samaria & Gaza The Million Person Gap PCBS 2009 Population 4 Million Bennett Zimmerman & Roberta Seid, Ph.D. Copyright 2009All Rights Reserved Fewer Births Net Negative Migration Jerusalem Arab Population Double-Count Residents Living Abroad Study Result 2009 Population 2.8 Million Report prepared by: The American-Israel Demographic Research Group (AIDRG) USA Research Team Bennett Zimmerman Roberta Seid, Ph.D. Michael Wise, Ph.D. Israel Research Team Yoram Ettinger Brig. Gen (Ret.) David Shahaf Prof. Ezra Sohar Dr. David Passig Avraham Shvout Yakov Faitelson PCBS: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics
4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Millions of People Source: ICBS, Final Assessments of Population in Judea, Samaria & Gaza, 1996, Julia Zemel, December 22, 1997; Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Territory, 1997 - 2015 19962007 2.1MN 3.8MN Israeli and Arab Population Data Judea, Samaria and Gaza (1996 & 2007) Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (ICBS) Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) PCBS 2007 population total for Judea & Samaria and Gaza was 3.8 million, 90% above the ICBS 1996 figure of 2.1 million. The two central bureaus of statistics cannot be accurate since… Such growth would indicate a compound annual growth rate of 5.5% per annum, almost twice as high as the leading countries in the world, such as Afghanistan, Sierra Leon, Somalia, Niger and Eritrea.
4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 97 2000 2007 2010 2015 Millions of People Arab Population in Judea&Samaria and Gaza 1997 PCBS Census and Projection (1997 - 2015) Source: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Territory, 1997 - 2015 When 2007 PCBS population numbers (3.8 million) is combined with Israeli Arab population (1.4 million), the number of Arabs is now – supposedly - almost equal to the number of Jews west of the Jordan River. Given this rapid Arab growth, Israeli Jews would rapidly – supposedly - become a minority. 5.0 6.0 The December 1997 census is the basis for the current PCBS data. 1997 PCBS: 2.78 Million 2009 PCBS: 4 Million PCBS assumption: 3.1% annual population growth rate.
Population measurement requires accurate recording and verification of: Beginning Base Population + Births - Deaths + Immigration - Emigration = Ending Base Population Study investigated the 1997 PCBS numbers, factor by factor, against data released each year by other PA and Israeli governmental agencies. Arab Population In Judea, Samaria & Gaza The Million Person Gap Methodology
4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0 Millions of People Examination of the base population data ( 1997 PCBS Census ) December 1996 PA Health Ministry 2.27MN June 1997 PCBS Census 2.78MN 2.111MN December 1996 ICBS Report 24K Half-Year Growth 210K Jerusalem Arabs 325K Residents Abroad 113K Additional Increase 648K Total excess over ICBS B efore C ensus C ensus E ra A 30% inflation is documented in the 1997 census, which is the Palestinian base population data. 3%-5% was the ICBS-PCBS gap until the 1997 census. ICBS accuracy is validated, when examined against Palestinian agencies.
We counted 325,000 people living outside of the Palestinian lands for more than one year, who carry Palestinian ID cards and can return at any time. This number is a minimum, and is not precise because we could not contact all the families living abroad. Hassan Abu Libdah Head of PCBS News Conference held at Al-Bireh The First Results of the Census February 26, 1998 Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census Inclusion of Residents Living Abroad According to internationally accepted demographic standards, overseas residents who are abroad for over a year are not counted demographically. Israel abides by such standards; the PCBS does not.
Census Coverage A comprehensive population enumeration always depends on the essence and the nature of the census. In general, population censuses cover all persons residing within the limits of a certain country, at a specific time. A population census is based on the following: 1.De-facto Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their existence in the area of enumeration at census moment, regardless of their usual place of residence. 2.De-jure Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their usual place of residence, regardless of their presence at the census moment. For the first ever Palestinian census, the de-facto approach was adopted with some exceptions. The census count included the following categories: A – The Categories underwent complete data collection. 1. All persons present in the Palestinian territories on the census reference date, irrespective of nationality, purpose of stay and place of residence in the Palestinian territories. 2. All temporarily living abroad (for one year prior to the night of the reference date) and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories. Those persons are enumerated as parts of their households. 3. All Palestinians studying abroad irrespective of the study period and the period of stay abroad along with all Palestinian detainees in the Israeli jails regardless of the detention period. B – Palestinian abroad: Categories underwent data collection on their numbers and sex only This category includes Palestinians who live abroad for more than one year and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories and have identity cards (except for students and detainees enumerated in the previous category) irrespective of the purpose of stay abroad. http://www.pcbs.org/phc_97/phc_covr.aspx Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census Inclusion of Residents Living Abroad
Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, 2007 Census Coverage (per PCBS website) The PHC-2007 has been conducted on the basis of de-facto, taking into consideration minor local circumstances. This approach is identical to the implementation of PHC-1997.
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 ICBS 1996 + 8 Years Less deaths and emigration CEC October 2004 Voting Report 1.3MN Eligible Voters Resident in Territories 200K Eligible Voters Abroad 87% Resident 13% Abroad 1.5MN 1.3MN 1.85MN 1.3M1.3MN PCBS Forecast (2004) Millions of People PA Central Election Commission (CEC) Eligible Adult (18 year old and older) Documentation October 2004 & January 2005 Voting Reports The October 2004 CEC Voting Report, with specific information on 1.3 million adults living in the Territories, undermines the original 1997 PA Projection and confirms that the 1997 Census Base included Palestinians living abroad. The residential base measured by the ICBS in the mid-1990s produces an exact match with the 1.3 million residents found on current CEC voter rolls. Adults expected to be 18 and above by 2004
120 80 40 Births/Year PCBS Birth Numbers vs. Births documented by PA Ministry of Health 160 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 0 Thousands of Births/Year A 40,000 annual gap between PCBS births and PA Ministry of Health recorded births. Documentation covers village mid-wives and clinics. Home deliveries: around 5% only. Documentation is essential for daily movement, for using international passages (800,000 annual exits/entries), for UNRWA child allowances, for access to Israel (work, education, business, health, BG Airport, recreation, visits). PCBS PA Ministry of Health 200620072008
120 80 40 Births/Year Births documented by PA Ministry of Health confirmed by PA Ministry of Education Records 160 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 0 = PCBS numbers = PA Ministry of Health documentation Thousands of Births/Year PA Ministry Of Education 1 st Grade Students 6 Years Later About 100% of 6 year old children register to first grade, according to the World Bank, European and Israeli studies. A high dropout rate starts at 3rd grade. PA Ministry of Healths documentation of births is compatible with PA Ministry of Educations documentation of first graders registration (6 years later). Both are well below PCBS numbers. Arab fertility decline in Judea & Samaria: Annual births stabilization between 1995 and 2008. 2003 2004 2006 20072008
120 80 40 160 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 0 Net Entries(Exits) In Thousands/Year Migration/Year PCBS 1997 Net-Immigration Assumption PCBS population numbers included an assumption of 45,000 net immigration annually, beginning 2001 until 2015. The eruption of Intifadah II in Sept. 2000 has precluded net immigration, but Israels demographic establishment never examined the PCBS and was unaware of its assumptions. 2005200620072008
120 80 40 160 Net Entries (Exits) In Thousands/Year 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2002 2001 2000 1999 0 = PCBS 1997 Projection = Actual Israel Border Data 19981997199619951994 Migration/Year PCBS 1997 Net-Immigration Assumption VS Actual Israel Border Net-Emigration Data The PCBS 1997 assumption of mass immigration into Judea, Samaria and Gaza: 45,000 annually since 2001! Border data showed net emigration of 10-20,000 persons each year since 1997: 10,000 - 2004, 16,000 – 2005, 25,000 – 2006, 25,000 – 2007, 28,000 - 2008. Since 1950, only 6 years featured net-immigration. Thus, the PCBS included – since 2001 - 60-70,000 persons each year that were not present. Post Oslo
Migration to Israels Green Line Legal migrants only – Double Count 1993 - 2003 From 1993 – 2003, over 150,000 residents of Judea & Samaria and Gaza received Israeli IDs under family reunification programs (105,000 since 1997). They are doubly-counted (as Green Line Arabs and as West Bankers. This phenomenon was stopped by a 2003 amendment to the Citizenship Law (Source: November 2003 Population Authority, Israel Ministry of Interior Report.)
Study Results Year by Year Detail Population models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and ending points, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates use information released by the PCBS to build population forecasts.
Study Results: 2004-2008 Population models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and ending points, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates use – without scrutiny - information released by the PCBS to build population forecasts. PCBS 2.5 million: 66% inflation PCBS 4 million: 1.2 million gap
Millions of People 4.0 3.5 3.0 PCBS Numbers: 3.83 Million Total 2.42 Million J&S 1.41 Million Gaza 2.5 2.0 PA MOH Births Difference: 238K Birth Alterations Difference: 70K The 1.34 Million Person Gap Deaths Difference: 33K Immigration & Emigration Error Difference: 310K Migration to Israel Difference: 105K Jerusalem ArabsDifference: 210K Residents Living AbroadDifference: 325K Jump Over ICBS Difference: 113K AIDRG Findings: 2.49 Million Total 1.41 Million J&S 1.08 Million Gaza } Errors in PCBS Projection The Million Person Gap (By Mid-Year 2004)
Population Breakdown Israel, Judea, Samaria and Gaza (2009) Jews West Bank Arabs Israeli Arabs Gaza Arabs Israeli Arabs West Bank Arabs Israeli Arabs Israel 81% Jewish 4:1 Jewish/Arab Ratio Israel & J&S 67% Jewish 2:1 Jewish/Arab Ratio Since the 1960s Israel J&S and Gaza 59% Jewish 3:2 Jewish/Arab Ratio Jewish Affiliated
Judea & Samaria Trend of Population Growth (1950-2008) 1950 19601970 Jordanian Period 1950-1967 Low population Growth rate 0.9% High fertility rate High infant mortality rate High Net-Emigration Israeli Administration 67-92 Pre-Fall Surge: Health Improvements Infant mortality declines Life expectancy increases Net-emigration decreases 198019902000 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 1992-2008 -- Population Growth rate 1.8% -- Declining Birthrate -- High Emigration -- Family Planning -- Teen pregnancy declines --Record High Median Wedding Age -- Expanded Education --Record divorce rate --From rural to poor urban As evidenced by global precedents of integration between Western World and Third World societies, an initial significant growth is a prelude to a substantial decline. Growth rates in J&S are experiencing the normal stages of population development. Growth rates for J&S are approaching levels of a developed Western society and trend toward Israeli Jews growth rates. Annual Population Growth Rates 2008
In USA: Mr. Bennett Zimmerman Ph: 310-617-4180 E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org Arab Population In the West Bank & Gaza The Million Person Gap Contact Information Arab Population in the West Bank and Gaza: The Million Person Gap was presented at the January 2006 Herzliya Conference. The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies published the Study in February 2006. The original study can be found at www.aidrg.comwww.aidrg.com
10 Total Fertility Rate Births/Woman 8 6 4 2 0 Total Fertility Rates (TFR) Gap Green Line Jews and Moslems 1960 – 2008 Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics Forecasts for Israel apply past high fertility rates to future forecast, despite long-term decline in Israel Arab fertility. Fertility gap plunged from 6 births per woman to 0.7. 2008 – Arab fertility rate declines to 3.5 births per woman; Jewish fertility rate grows to 2.8. 9.23 1960/ 1964 3.39 8.47 1965/ 1969 3.36 1970/ 1974 3.28 1975/ 1979 3.00 5.54 1980/ 1984 2.80 4.70 1985/ 1989 2.79 4.67 1990/ 1994 2.62 4.67 1995/ 1999 2.62 4.36 2004 2.71 Jews Moslems 7.25 9.22 2.8 3.5 2008
5 Total Fertility Rate Births/Woman 4 3 2 1 0 Total Fertility Rates (TFR) Gap Green Line Jews and Arabs 2000 - 2008 Israeli Jewish Fertility rates, the highest in the industrialized world, have stabilized and even started to rise across the board in all sectors (Orthodox, secular, and Olim from USSR). After plateauing from 1985 – 2000, Israeli Arab fertility rates have been steadily falling. 2007 – 3.5 Arab TFR and 2.8 Jewish TFR. From a 6 children gap Arab-Jewish TFR gap in the 1960s to 0.7 gap in 2008. 20002002 2003 Jews Arabs 2004 2.71 4.40 4.22 4. 00 4.17 2.73 2.64 2.66 2007 2.8 3.5
100 Thousands of births 80 60 40 20 0 1995 Arabs 1997199819992000200120022003200420052006 20072009 Demographic Momentum in the Green Line Jewish Births vs. Arab Births 1995 - 2009 Jews Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics Since 1995 (80,400) annual Jewish births have increased by 50% (121,000 in 2009), while Arab births have stabilized at 39,500. Jewish births accounted to 69% in 1995, 74% in 2007 and 75.5% in 2009, trending upward. 80.4 36.5 88.3 36.2 91.3 38.8 92.6 39.4 95.6 40.8 95.2 41.4 98.6 40.9 103.6 41.4 104.4 40.9 105.2 38.8 109.2 39 112 39 121
Children per Family 8 6 4 2 0 Gallup Survey on Ideal Family Size Convergence in Fertility Intentions Source: Gallup News Service, Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis, Lydia Saad, March 17 2006 Desired family size is now the same for Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs Young West Bank Arabs desire a family size only one-half a child higher than young Israelis Israel Jews What is the ideal number of children in a family? 3.06 3.73 Israel Arabs 4.52 West Bank Arabs 3.68 3.88 5.26 3.593.68 3.85 3.52 4.55 4.40 4.17 5.07 OrthodoxTraditional Secular 50+ 30-49 20-2915-19 50+ 30-49 20-2915-19
Gallup Survey on Ideal Family Size Convergence in Fertility Intentions There is not a large difference [in fertility intentions] in a region where fertility could be a potent political tool... The possibility that the once burgeoning Palestinian Arab population in Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip will eventually be the majority in that region has been widely accepted as a looming threat to Israel... However the assumption that Palestinians will eventually out-number the Jewish population in the region has come under recent criticism. The recent Gallup data is instructive because there is clearly an element of personal choice in having children, and thus Gallup finds strong evidence that peoples preferred family size has a strong bearing on actual fertility rates. Gallup has been measuring Americans notion of ideal number of children since 1936, the trend lines for preferred number of children and the U.S. are quite parallel. Gallup finds no difference in preferred number of children by age in Israel, but does among [younger] Palestinians. Gallup Comments -- Lydia Saad, Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis, Gallup News Service, March 17 2006
Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews Israels Official Forecast (2000 - 2025) 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 2000 - 05 2021 - 25 2.6 2.4 2.1 Total Fertility Rates The ICBS assumed Jewish fertility rates (births expected per woman) would decrease from 2.6 in 2000 to 2.4 in 2025. Net Immigration was expected to drop from 10,000/year to 7,000/year in the high case and 4,000/year to -2,000 emigration in the low case High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario
Actual Fertility vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews (2000 - 2007) 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 2000 - 05 2021 - 25 2.6 2.4 2.1 Actuals 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2.66 2.64 2.73 2.71 2.77 2.8 2.8 Actual fertility rates for the Jewish sector were higher - annually - than the highest rates Considered by the ICBS in its forecast. Total Fertility Rates
Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems Israels Official Forecast (2000 - 2025) 3.8 2.1 The ICBS assumed Moslem fertility rates (births expected per woman) would remain stable at 4.7 in the high case scenario and gradually drop to 2.6 in the low case scenario No immigration or emigration scenarios were considered for the sector 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 2000 - 05 2021 - 25 2.6 4.50 4.7 Total Fertility Rates High Case Scenario Medium Case Scenario Low Case Scenario
Actuals vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems (2000 - 2004) 3.8 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 2000 - 05 2021 - 25 2.6 4.50 4.7 Total Fertility Rates Actuals 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Moslems 1,090 83% 4.74 4.58 4.50 4.36 Christians 116 9% 2.55 2.29 2.31 2.13 Druze 112 8% 3.07 2.77 2.85 2.66 Total Arab 1,318 4.40 4.22 4.17 4.02 3.9 3.6 3.5 Moslem Total Arab Actual fertility rates for Moslems (especially) and for Arabs were decreasing 20 years faster than ICBS projections.
West Bank & Gaza Education Sector Analysis The World Bank, September 7, 2006 http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWESTBANKGAZA/Resources/EducationSectorAnalysisSept06.pdf http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWESTBANKGAZA/Resources/EducationSectorAnalysisSept06.pdf The enrollment rate for grade 1 is almost 100%. PCBS projected a 24% increase in age 6 during 1999-2005 (almost 4% population growth rate expected). Enrollment to 1 grade decreased by 8% (page 8). 32% gap cause: fertility decline and emigration increase. Higher education enrollment doubled during last decade. 44% of 18-21 age group were in full-time education in 2004. Similar enrolment by refugees and non-refugees. 22% of 25-29 year old women have post-primary education, compared with 10% among 45-49 year old women.
UNESCOs Director General, May 22, 2007: an abrupt slowdown in the rate of growth... also in many countries where women have only limited access to education and employment... There is not the slightest reason to assume that the decline in fertility will miraculously stop just at replacement level (2.1 births per woman)... UN Population Division: Sharp decline in Muslim fertility rates – except Yemen and Afghanistan – is mostly responsible for a 25% reduction in population projections. Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC: [AIDRG] caught the demographic profession asleep at the switch.