Presentation on theme: "The American-Israel Demographic Research Group (AIDRG)"— Presentation transcript:
1The American-Israel Demographic Research Group (AIDRG) Arab PopulationIn Judea, Samaria & GazaThe Million Person GapPCBS2009 Population 4 MillionPCBS: Palestine Central Bureau of StatisticsReport prepared by:The American-IsraelDemographic Research Group(AIDRG)Fewer BirthsNet Negative MigrationJerusalem Arab PopulationDouble-CountUSA Research TeamBennett ZimmermanRoberta Seid, Ph.D.Michael Wise, Ph.D.Israel Research TeamYoram EttingerBrig. Gen (Ret.) David ShahafProf. Ezra SoharDr. David PassigAvraham ShvoutYakov FaitelsonResidents Living AbroadStudy Result2009 Population 2.8 MillionBennett Zimmerman & Roberta Seid, Ph.D.Copyright 2009All Rights Reserved
2Israeli and Arab Population Data Judea, Samaria and Gaza(1996 & 2007)PCBS 2007 population total forJudea & Samaria and Gaza was3.8 million, 90% above the ICBS1996 figure of 2.1 million.The two central bureaus of statisticscannot be accurate since…Such growth would indicate acompound annual growth rateof 5.5% per annum, almost twice as high as the leading countries in the world, such as Afghanistan, Sierra Leon, Somalia, Niger and Eritrea.Millions of People3.8MN4.03.02.1MN2.01.019962007Israel CentralBureau of Statistics(ICBS)Palestine CentralBureau of Statistics(PCBS)Source: ICBS, Final Assessments of Population in Judea, Samaria & Gaza, 1996, Julia Zemel, December 22, 1997;Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Territory,
3Arab Population in Judea&Samaria and Gaza 1997 PCBS Census and Projection( )Millions of People6.0The December 1997 census is thebasis for the current PCBS data.1997 PCBS: 2.78 Million2009 PCBS: 4 MillionPCBS assumption: 3.1% annualpopulation growth rate.5.04.03.02.01.0‘Source: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Territory,When 2007 PCBS population numbers (3.8 million) is combined with Israeli Arabpopulation (1.4 million), the number of Arabs is now – supposedly - almost equal to thenumber of Jews west of the Jordan River. Given this rapid Arab growth,Israeli Jews would rapidly – supposedly - become a minority.
4Beginning Base Population + Births - Deaths + Immigration - Emigration Arab PopulationIn Judea, Samaria & GazaThe Million Person GapMethodologyPopulation measurement requires accurate recording and verification of:Beginning Base Population+ Births- Deaths+ Immigration- Emigration= Ending Base PopulationStudy investigated the 1997 PCBS numbers, factor by factor, against datareleased each year by other PA and Israeli governmental agencies.
5Examination of the base population data (1997 PCBS Census)Before CensusCensus EraMillions of People4.03.024K Half-Year Growth210K Jerusalem Arabs325K Residents Abroad113K Additional Increase648K Total excess over ICBS2.78MN2.27MN2.111MN2.01.0December 1996ICBS ReportDecember 1996PA Health MinistryJune 1997PCBS CensusA 30% inflation is documented in the 1997 census, which is the Palestinian base population data.3%-5% was the ICBS-PCBS gap until the 1997 census.ICBS’ accuracy is validated, when examined against Palestinian agencies.
6Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census Inclusion of Residents Living Abroad“We counted 325,000 people living outside of the Palestinian lands for more than one year, who carry Palestinian ID cards and can return at any time. This number is a minimum, and is not precise because we could not contact all the families living abroad.”Hassan Abu LibdahHead of PCBSNews Conference held at Al-Bireh“The First Results of the Census”February 26, 1998According to internationally accepted demographic standards, overseas residents who are abroad for over a year are not counted demographically. Israel abides by such standards; the PCBS does not.
7Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census Inclusion of Residents Living AbroadCensus CoverageA comprehensive population enumeration always depends on the essence and the nature of the census. In general, population censuses cover all persons residing within the limits of a certain country, at a specific time. A population census is based on the following:De-facto Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their existence in the area of enumeration at census moment, regardless of their usual place of residence.De-jure Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their usual place of residence, regardless of their presence at the census moment.For the first ever Palestinian census, the de-facto approach was adopted with some exceptions. The census count included the following categories:A – The Categories underwent complete data collection.1. All persons present in the Palestinian territories on the census reference date, irrespective of nationality, purpose of stay and place of residence in the Palestinian territories.2. All temporarily living abroad (for one year prior to the night of the reference date) and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories. Those persons are enumerated as parts of their households.3. All Palestinians studying abroad irrespective of the study period and the period of stay abroad along with all Palestinian detainees in the Israeli jails regardless of the detention period.B – Palestinian abroad: Categories underwent data collection on their numbers and sex only This category includes Palestinians who live abroad for more than one year and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories and have identity cards (except for students and detainees enumerated in the previous category) irrespective of the purpose of stay abroad.
8Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, 2007 Census Coverage (per PCBS website) “The PHC-2007 has been conducted on the basis of de-facto, taking into consideration minor local circumstances.”“This approach is identical to the implementation of PHC-1997.”
9PA Central Election Commission (CEC) Eligible Adult (18 year old and older) DocumentationOctober 2004 & January 2005 Voting ReportsMillions of People2.52.0“Adults expected to be 18 and above by 2004”1.85MN1.5MN1.51.3MN13%Abroad1.3MN1.3M87%Resident1.00.5CEC October 2004 Voting Report1.3MN Eligible VotersResident in Territories200K Eligible Voters AbroadICBS 1996+ 8 YearsLess deaths and emigrationPCBS Forecast(2004)The October 2004 CEC Voting Report, with specific information on 1.3 million adults living in the Territories, undermines the original 1997 PA Projection and confirms that the 1997 Census Base included Palestinians living abroad. The residential base measured by the ICBS in the mid-1990s produces an exact match with the 1.3 million residents found on current CEC voter rolls.
10vs. Births documented by PA Ministry of Health Births/YearPCBS Birth Numbersvs. Births documented by PA Ministry of HealthPCBSThousandsof Births/YearPA Ministry of Health1601208040199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008A 40,000 annual gap between PCBS births and PA Ministry of Health recorded births. Documentation covers village mid-wives and clinics. Home deliveries: around 5% only.Documentation is essential for daily movement, for using international passages (800,000 annual exits/entries), for UNRWA child allowances, for access to Israel (work, education, business, health, BG Airport, recreation, visits).
11Births documented by PA Ministry of Health Births/YearBirths documented by PA Ministry of Healthconfirmed by PA Ministry of Education RecordsPA MinistryOf Education1st Grade Students6 Years LaterThousandsof Births/Year= PCBS numbers= PA Ministry of Healthdocumentation160120200320048040199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008About 100% of 6 year old children register to first grade, according to the World Bank, European and Israeli studies. A high dropout rate starts at 3rd grade.PA Ministry of Health’s documentation of births is compatible with PA Ministry of Education’s documentation of first graders registration (6 years later). Both are well below PCBS numbers.Arab fertility decline in Judea & Samaria: Annual births stabilization between 1995 and 2008.
12PCBS 1997 Net-Immigration Assumption Migration/YearPCBS 1997 Net-Immigration AssumptionNet Entries(Exits)In Thousands/Year16012080401996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008PCBS population numbers included an assumption of 45,000 net immigration annually,beginning 2001 until 2015.The eruption of Intifadah II in Sept has precluded net immigration, but Israel’sdemographic establishment never examined the PCBS and was unaware of its assumptions.
13Migration/Year Actual Israel Border Net-Emigration Data PCBS 1997 Net-Immigration AssumptionVSActual Israel Border Net-Emigration DataNet Entries (Exits)In Thousands/Year160120= PCBS 1997Projection80= Actual IsraelBorder Data40Post Oslo19941995199619971998199920002001200220042005200620072008The PCBS 1997 assumption of mass immigration into Judea, Samaria and Gaza: 45,000 annually since 2001! Border data showed net emigration of 10-20,000 persons each year since 1997: 10, , 16,000 – 2005, 25,000 – 2006, 25,000 – 2007, 28, Since 1950, only 6 years featured net-immigration. Thus, the PCBS included – since ,000 persons each year that were not present.
14Migration to Israel’s Green Line Legal migrants only – Double Count From 1993 – 2003, over 150,000 residents of Judea & Samaria and Gaza received Israeli IDsunder family reunification programs (105,000 since 1997). They are doubly-counted (as “GreenLine” Arabs and as West Bankers. This phenomenon was stopped by a 2003 amendment to theCitizenship Law (Source: November 2003 Population Authority, Israel Ministry of InteriorReport.)
15Study Results Year by Year Detail Population models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and endingpoints, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates useinformation released by the PCBS to build population forecasts.
16PCBS’ 2.5 million: 66% “inflation” PCBS’ 4 million: 1.2 million gap Study Results:PCBS’ 2.5 million:66% “inflation”PCBS’ 4 million:1.2 million gapPopulation models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and endingpoints, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates use – without scrutiny - information released by the PCBS to build population forecasts.
17Errors in PCBS Projection The Million Person Gap(By Mid-Year 2004)}Millions of PeoplePCBS Numbers:3.83 Million Total2.42 Million J&S1.41 Million Gaza4.0Deaths Difference: 33KPA MOH Births Difference: 238KBirth Alterations Difference: 70K3.5Immigration &Emigration Error Difference: 310K“The 1.34 MillionPerson Gap”Migration to Israel Difference: 105K3.0Jerusalem Arabs Difference: 210KResidentsLiving Abroad Difference: 325K2.5Jump Over ICBS Difference: 113KAIDRG Findings:2.49 Million Total1.41 Million J&S1.08 Million Gaza2.0
18Israel, Judea, Samaria and Gaza Population BreakdownIsrael, Judea, Samaria and Gaza(2009)IsraeliArabsWest BankArabsIsraeliArabsWest BankArabsIsraeliArabsGazaArabsJewish AffiliatedJewsJewsJewsIsrael& J&S67% Jewish2:1 Jewish/Arab RatioSince the 1960sIsrael81% Jewish4:1 Jewish/Arab RatioIsraelJ&Sand Gaza59% Jewish3:2 Jewish/Arab Ratio
19Trend of Population Growth Judea & SamariaTrend of Population Growth( )Annual PopulationGrowth RatesIsraeli Administration ’67-92Pre-Fall Surge:Health ImprovementsInfant mortality declinesLife expectancy increasesNet-emigration decreases4.0%-- Population Growth rate 1.8%-- Declining Birthrate--High Emigration--Family Planning--Teen pregnancy declines--Record High Median Wedding Age--Expanded Education--Record divorce rate--From rural to poor urban3.0%Jordanian PeriodLow population Growth rate 0.9%High fertility rateHigh infant mortality rateHigh Net-Emigration2.0%1.0%1950196019701980199020002008As evidenced by global precedents of integration between Western World and ThirdWorld societies, an initial significant growth is a prelude to a substantial decline.Growth rates in J&S are experiencing the normal stages of population development.Growth rates for J&S are approaching levels of a developed Western society and trendtoward Israeli Jews growth rates.
20Arab PopulationIn the West Bank & GazaThe Million Person GapContact InformationIn USA:Mr. Bennett ZimmermanPh:Arab Population in the West Bank and Gaza: The Million Person Gap was presented at the January 2006 Herzliya Conference. The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies published the Study in February The original study can be found at
21“Green Line” Jews and Moslems Total Fertility Rates (TFR) Gap“Green Line” Jews and Moslems1960 – 2008Total Fertility RateBirths/Woman22.214.171.124JewsMoslems87.2565.544.704.674.674.3643.53.393.363.283.002.82.802.792.712.622.6221960/19641965/19691970/19741975/19791980/19841985/19891990/19941995/199920042008Source:Israel Central Bureau of StatisticsForecasts for Israel apply past high fertility rates to future forecast, despite long-term decline in Israel Arab fertility. Fertility gap plunged from 6 births per woman to 0.7.2008 – Arab fertility rate declines to 3.5 births per woman; Jewish fertility rate grows to 2.8.
22“Green Line” Jews and Arabs Total Fertility Rates (TFR) Gap“Green Line” Jews and ArabsTotal Fertility RateBirths/Woman5JewsArabs44.404.224.174. 0033.52.82.732.712.662.642120002002200320042007Israeli Jewish Fertility rates, the highest in the industrialized world, have stabilized and evenstarted to rise across the board in all sectors (Orthodox, secular, and Olim from USSR).After plateauing from 1985 – 2000, Israeli Arab fertility rates have been steadily falling.2007 – 3.5 Arab TFR and 2.8 Jewish TFR. From a 6 children gap Arab-Jewish TFR gap in the 1960s to 0.7 gap in 2008.
23Demographic Momentum in the “Green Line” Jewish Births vs. Arab Births JewsArabs121Jewish Births vs. Arab Births112109.2Thousandsof births103.6104.4105.210098.695.695.292.691.388.380.4806040.841.441.44039.440.940.9393936.536.238.838.839201995199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072009Source: Israel Central Bureau of StatisticsSince 1995 (80,400) annual Jewish births have increased by 50% (121,000in 2009), while Arab births have stabilized at 39,500. Jewish birthsaccounted to 69% in 1995, 74% in 2007 and 75.5% in 2009, trending upward.
24Convergence in Fertility Intentions “Gallup” Survey on Ideal Family SizeConvergence in Fertility IntentionsChildren per FamilyWhat is the ideal number of children in a family?865.265.074.524.554.404.1743.883.853.683.683.593.523.733.062TraditionalOrthodox30-4920-2915-1930-4920-2915-19Secular50+50+IsraelJewsIsraelArabsWest Bank ArabsSource:Gallup News Service, “Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis”, Lydia Saad, MarchDesired family size is now the same for Israeli Jews and Israeli ArabsYoung West Bank Arabs desire a family size only one-half a child higher than young Israelis
25Convergence in Fertility Intentions “Gallup” Survey on Ideal Family SizeConvergence in Fertility Intentions“Gallup” Comments“There is not a large difference [in fertility intentions] in a region where fertility could be apotent political tool The possibility that the once burgeoning Palestinian Arab populationin Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip will eventually be the majority in that region hasbeen widely accepted as a looming threat to Israel However the assumption thatPalestinians will eventually out-number the Jewish population in the region has comeunder recent criticism.“The recent Gallup data is instructive because there is clearly an element of personalchoice in having children, and thus Gallup finds strong evidence that people’s preferredfamily size has a strong bearing on actual fertility rates. Gallup has been measuringAmerican’s notion of ideal number of children since 1936, the trend lines for preferrednumber of children and the U.S. are quite parallel.“Gallup finds no difference in preferred number of children by age in Israel, but doesamong [younger] Palestinians.-- Lydia Saad, “Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis”,Gallup News Service, March
26Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews Israel’s Official Forecast( )Total Fertility Rates4.003.503.002.62.6High Scenario2.502.4Medium Scenario2.1Low Scenario2.00The ICBS assumed Jewish fertility rates (births expected per woman) would decrease from2.6 in 2000 to 2.4 in 2025.Net Immigration was expected to drop from 10,000/year to 7,000/year in the high caseand 4,000/year to -2,000 emigration in the low case
27Actual Fertility vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews ( )Total Fertility Rates4.00Actuals3.503.002.62.62.502.42.12.00Actual fertility rates for the Jewish sector were higher - annually - than the highest ratesConsidered by the ICBS in its forecast.
28Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems Israel’s Official Forecast( )Total Fertility Rates4.74.7High Case Scenario4.504.003.8Medium Case Scenario3.503.002.12.6Low Case Scenario2.502.00The ICBS assumed Moslem fertility rates (births expected per woman) would remainstable at 4.7 in the high case scenario and gradually drop to 2.6 in the low case scenarioNo immigration or emigration scenarios were considered for the sector
29Actuals vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems ( )Total Fertility Rates126.96.36.199MoslemActualsMoslems , %Christians %Druze %Total Arab 1,4.003.83.50Total Arab3.002.62.502.00Actual fertility rates for Moslems (especially) and for Arabs were decreasing 20 years faster than ICBS projections.
30West Bank & Gaza Education Sector Analysis The World Bank, September 7, 2006The enrollment rate for grade 1 is almost 100%.PCBS projected a 24% increase in age 6 during (almost 4% population growth rate expected).Enrollment to 1 grade decreased by 8% (page 8).32% gap cause: fertility decline and emigration increase.Higher education enrollment doubled during last decade. 44% of age group were in full-time education in Similar enrolment by refugees and non-refugees.22% of year old women have post-primary education, compared with 10% among year old women.
31UNESCO’s Director General, May 22, 2007: “an abrupt slowdown in the rate of growth... also in many countries where women have only limited access to education and employment... There is not the slightest reason to assume that the decline in fertility will miraculously stop just at replacement level (2.1 births per woman)...”UN Population Division: Sharp decline in Muslim fertility rates – except Yemen and Afghanistan – is mostly responsible for a 25% reduction in population projections.Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC: “[AIDRG] caught the demographic profession asleep at the switch.