2 What is a Propensity Model? Data driven approach to identify the likelihood of an individual to participate in a defined behavior. In this case, likelihood to show IUAA membership joining behavior.
3 Why a Propensity Model is Important? We currently have over 600,000 alumni. We do not have the resources, financial or manpower, to reach all alumni and promote membership. We must utilize a data driven strategy to impact membership in an efficient and affective manner.600,000+ Indiana University Alumni
4 How was the Propensity Model Built? 609,170 unique records were matched and scored ranging from 0-1,000.The higher the score the greater the correlation that alumni will have in joining behavior.IU Alumni DataCurrent Alumni MemberIUAA Membership Propensity ModelExternal DataHow was this accomplished? Working with Blackbaud, we took a combination of our membership data variables and standard external variables to derive a high correlation of results associated with current alumni members. As a result, each alumni record was matched with a score ranging from 0-1,000. The higher the score, the greater the correlation we will have with that alumni in joining behavior.
5 Score DistributionScores of 551+ represent those with greatest likelihood to show joining behavior.Score distribution:901+ Excellentvery goodgoodaverage<250 below average
6 What is IUAA Membership Profile Look Like? The percentage shows how predictive each variable is compared to the others. In this model the Loyalty Trend is the largest weighted variable with the others fairly equally distributed.Memberships best prospects share common characteristics:They give frequently outside of membershipShow their pride with an IU license plateLive in areas with a strong IU presenceAre alumni who have followed in footsteps of another family memberGraduated from Kelley School of Business or have business related degreesLikely to be employed in professional science, management & administrationWere involved in clubs & groupsDonation amounts have increased over time
7 Membership Gap Analysis The greatest growth opportunity lies with 102,423 unique alumni records,representing 17% of the 609,170 alumni pool.CampusRecordsLifeAnnualC/HActive%PenetrationLapsedNeverBlankGapIUPUI31,1975,7792,26958,05320%25.81%11,51511,10752223,14421%Bloomington103,73020,5877,9053028,52272%27.50%41,49329,3074,40875,20869%IU Southeast3,0003682235911%19.70%1,1741,22962,4092%IU South Bend4,03750130380419.92%1,7831,44283,2333%IU Northwest2,40730616447019.53%991935111,937IU Kokomo1,05912993121.06%468836IU Ft. Wayne1,96934519654127.48%756662101,428IU East47552501020%21.47%161212373Columbus8071206218222.55%2933293625Total148,68128,18711,2653639,488100%26.56%58,53445,6914,968109,193Duplicate Records10,7793,0339754,0094,2242,2592876,770Unique Records137,90225,15410,2903535,47954,31043,4324,681102,4231. Analysis based on scores of 551+ ; deemed most attractive2. Active recognizes all life and annual members3. Gap defines the opportunity between the number of records deemed attractive (likely to participate) and those not currently active4. Deduped records connect alumni to first degree campus5. Refreshed data is based on alumni only vs. alumni and donor data
10 Top Alumni Degrees Rank Degree Total # of Prospects 1 BS Phys Ed 4,467 2M Bus Admin17,4633BS Business82,1044BA Journalism4,1085BS Kinesiology4,5906D Medicine7,5507D Jurisprudence10,9458BS Pub Affairs11,9179Bach Arts106,59710BS Biology4,73211D of Phil7,23312BS Education52,01813BS Nursing15,25414M Library Sci4,59915Bach Gen Studies16,67316Assoc Gen Studies5,40417M Arts13,79918MS Education31,58919AS Nursing9,477(Values with fewer than 4000 prospects excluded. Based on Total Prospects.)
11 Alumni Chapter Rankings Total # of Prospects1Monroe County Chapter169472Southwest Indiana Chapter27753Knox County Chapter9884Charlotte, NC, Chapter21085Washington, D.C., Chapter107426Dallas/Fort Worth Chapter45097Chicago Chapter308318Greater Evansville Chapter60029Metro New York Chapter1118710Toledo Chapter141211Banks of the Wabash Chapter22612Las Vegas, NV, Chapter102213Boone County Chapter485614Cleveland, OH*205615Milwaukee, WI*226416Columbus, OH, Chapter352017Greensboro, NC, Alumni Chapter1083
12 Alumni Chapter Rankings (Continued) 18Houston, TX, Chapter3,61119Birmingham, AL*60720Greater Cincinnati Area Chaptr8,76121Atlanta, GA, Chapter5,80222Southwest Florida Chapter2,15123Southeast Michigan Chapter3,63124South Florida Chapter2,78225West Central Indiana Chapter5,20226Hilton Head, SC, Chapter56327Charleston, SC*65728Philadelphia, PA*4,22129Connecticut Chapter2,35230Kansas City Chapter1,81031San Diego Chapter2,62932Central Illinois Chapter1,36333Buffalo/Western NY Chapter1,20734Hawaii*89435Florida Suncoast Chapter1,989
14 Alumni Chapter Rankings (Continued) 54Elkhart County Chapter6,30755Johnson County Chapter8,56156Cass County Chapter1,32757Los Angeles Chapter5,93458St. Joseph County Chapter16,47259Lexington, KY*1,33860Bartholomew County Chapter4,60161Kosciusko County Chapter2,22362Memphis, TN*91263Nashville, TN, Chapter2,40664Central Florida Chapter2,70865Boise, ID, Chapter33066Boston, MA, Chapter4,70767Whitewater Valley Chapter4,41568West Michigan Chapter4,69569Sacramento Chapter1,20270Austin, TX, Chapter1,91871Orange County, CA, Chapter2,412
15 Alumni Chapter Rankings (Continued) 72Colorado Chapter7,05273Madison County Chapter2,42474Henry County Chapter1,02275Phoenix Chapter4,20876Louisville & S. Ind. Chapter25,39477Portland, OR/So Washington Chr2,17278Northeast Indiana Chapter25,62679Seattle Chapter3,83680Howard/Tipton Counties Chapter5,30381Albuquerque, NM*1,04182Lakeshore Region Chapter25,373
16 Modeled Terms/Definitions Blackjack Variable: The count of the increased giving minus the decreased giving over a given period of time. This simple value indicates whether : the giving has fallen, remained steady, increased the same as decreased, or has risen each year.Description:Blackjack is based on the previous year and back (ex: 2011 and back) to help identify donors and non-donors (ex: in 2012)For each year giving increases, prospect receives a +1For each year giving decreases, prospect receives a -1For each year giving stays the same, prospect receives a 0Blackjack can be any value between -4 and =+4