Presentation on theme: "MEMBERSHIP PROPENSITY MODEL JUNE 2012. What is a Propensity Model?"— Presentation transcript:
MEMBERSHIP PROPENSITY MODEL JUNE 2012
What is a Propensity Model?
Why a Propensity Model is Important? 600,000+ Indiana University Alumni
How was the Propensity Model Built? IU Alumni Data Current Alumni Member IUAA Membership Propensity Model External Data 609,170 unique records were matched and scored ranging from 0-1,000. The higher the score the greater the correlation that alumni will have in joining behavior.
Score Distribution Scores of 551+ represent those with greatest likelihood to show joining behavior.
What is IUAA Membership Profile Look Like? The percentage shows how predictive each variable is compared to the others. In this model the Loyalty Trend is the largest weighted variable with the others fairly equally distributed.
Membership Gap Analysis CampusRecordsLifeAnnualC/HActive%PenetrationLapsedNeverBlankGap% IUPUI31,1975,7792,26958,05320%25.81%11,51511, ,14421% Bloomington103,73020,5877, ,52272%27.50%41,49329,3074,40875,20869% IU Southeast3, %19.70%1,1741,22962,4092% IU South Bend4, %19.92%1,7831,44283,2333% IU Northwest2, %19.53% ,9372% IU Kokomo1, %21.06% % IU Ft. Wayne1, %27.48% ,4281% IU East %21.47% % Columbus %22.55% % Total148,68128,18711, ,488100%26.56%58,53445,6914,968109,193100% Duplicate Records10,7793, ,009 4,2242, ,770 Unique Records137,90225,15410, ,479 54,31043,4324,681102,423 The greatest growth opportunity lies with 102,423 unique alumni records, representing 17% of the 609,170 alumni pool.
Top Alumni Degrees (Values with fewer than 4000 prospects excluded. Based on Total Prospects.) RankDegreeTotal # of Prospects 1BS Phys Ed4,467 2M Bus Admin17,463 3BS Business82,104 4BA Journalism4,108 5BS Kinesiology4,590 6D Medicine7,550 7D Jurisprudence10,945 8BS Pub Affairs11,917 9Bach Arts106,597 10BS Biology4,732 11D of Phil7,233 12BS Education52,018 13BS Nursing15,254 14M Library Sci4,599 15Bach Gen Studies16,673 16Assoc Gen Studies5,404 17M Arts13,799 18MS Education31,589 19AS Nursing9,477
Alumni Chapter Rankings RankAlumni ChapterTotal # of Prospects 1Monroe County Chapter Southwest Indiana Chapter2775 3Knox County Chapter988 4Charlotte, NC, Chapter2108 5Washington, D.C., Chapter Dallas/Fort Worth Chapter4509 7Chicago Chapter Greater Evansville Chapter6002 9Metro New York Chapter Toledo Chapter Banks of the Wabash Chapter226 12Las Vegas, NV, Chapter Boone County Chapter Cleveland, OH* Milwaukee, WI* Columbus, OH, Chapter Greensboro, NC, Alumni Chapter1083
Alumni Chapter Rankings (Continued) 54Elkhart County Chapter6,307 55Johnson County Chapter8,561 56Cass County Chapter1,327 57Los Angeles Chapter5,934 58St. Joseph County Chapter16,472 59Lexington, KY*1,338 60Bartholomew County Chapter4,601 61Kosciusko County Chapter2,223 62Memphis, TN*912 63Nashville, TN, Chapter2,406 64Central Florida Chapter2,708 65Boise, ID, Chapter330 66Boston, MA, Chapter4,707 67Whitewater Valley Chapter4,415 68West Michigan Chapter4,695 69Sacramento Chapter1,202 70Austin, TX, Chapter1,918 71Orange County, CA, Chapter2,412
Alumni Chapter Rankings (Continued) 72Colorado Chapter7,052 73Madison County Chapter2,424 74Henry County Chapter1,022 75Phoenix Chapter4,208 76Louisville & S. Ind. Chapter25,394 77Portland, OR/So Washington Chr2,172 78Northeast Indiana Chapter25,626 79Seattle Chapter3,836 80Howard/Tipton Counties Chapter5,303 81Albuquerque, NM*1,041 82Lakeshore Region Chapter25,373
Modeled Terms/Definitions Blackjack Variable: The count of the increased giving minus the decreased giving over a given period of time. This simple value indicates whether : the giving has fallen, remained steady, increased the same as decreased, or has risen each year. Description: Blackjack is based on the previous year and back (ex: 2011 and back) to help identify donors and non-donors (ex: in 2012) For each year giving increases, prospect receives a +1 For each year giving decreases, prospect receives a -1 For each year giving stays the same, prospect receives a 0 Blackjack can be any value between -4 and =+4