1. The sceptical optimist: – Mike Schussler Economists.co.za www.economists.co.za 1

2. Quick GDP overview. What is the Green wave and other technologies. History. Other green Technologies. Simple Savings. 2www.Economists.co.za

3. 2009201020112012201320142015 Agriculture, forestry and fishing -3.0%0.9%3.2%3.3%4.1%1.9%2.1% Mining and quarrying -4.2%5.8%-0.3%-0.4%1.0%3.5%3.0% Manufacturing -10.4%5.0%2.4%1.1%2.0%4.3%4.1% Electricity, gas and water -1.6%2.0%1.2%0.6%2.3%2.5%2.7% Construction 7.4%1.5%-1.2%1.1%1.8%2.8%2.3% Wholesale-, retail-, & accomodation -2.5%2.2%3.0%2.1%2.7%4.0%4.4% Transport, storage and communication 0.6%2.9%4.2%3.8%4.6%5.1%5.7% Finance, real estate and business services 0.9%1.9%3.5%2.2%3.1%3.7%3.1% General government services 4.1%3.0%3.4%3.7%3.6%3.4%3.5% Personal services -0.3%0.6%3.7%2.4%2.0%2.6%3.1% Total value added at basic prices -1.5%2.8%3.1%2.3%2.8%3.6% GDP at market prices -1.7%2.8%2.9%2.4%2.8%3.6% 3www.Economists.co.za

4. A green wave is an intentionally induced phenomenon in which a series of traffic lights (usually three or more) are coordinated to allow continuous traffic flow over several intersections in one main direction. More broadly green transport technology seeks to get better traffic flow and savings in time, fuel, Greenhouse gasses, maintenance and even better frames of mind. 4www.Economists.co.za

5. Henry Barnes was an early American Traffic engineer and is cited as having either invented green waves or at least started them back in the late 1940s as coordinated traffic signals. The first traffic coordination experiment may have already occurred in about 1943 in Kansas but the Barnes dance included pedestrian crossings (as it was referred too then) which also then helped both cars and foot traffic and that was certainly only done after the war. Both Vancouver and Kansas City claim to be first. 5www.Economists.co.za

6. While the traffic coordination was manually set up at first the fact is that from the late 1960s computer have been involved in at least some cities such as Denver, New York and others. Green waves also started in Europe in the 1950s But live traffic coordination was only introduced in the late 1970s in Germany and Holland. It had an impact and some further improvements in European research has produced smaller but on going improvements 6www.Economists.co.za

7. Simple green waves have been shown to save around 10% in Time, Fuel, greenhouse gasses. This is just timing robots. Maintenance is also reduced and vehicle life is increased (not sure by how much). Road surface lasts longer too. 7www.Economists.co.za

8. Algorithms which increase co-ordination between robots and showing different speeds at different times of the day add up to another about 10% in savings of Time, fuel and carbon. The signs for speed are alive here and differ from time to time to make sure time of the day traffic is taken into account. 8www.Economists.co.za

9. Live traffic relayed via cameras and counting technology as well as other observations with a clever computer program brought off the shelf and adjusted for a particular city or routes. These systems are now at the leading edge of the technology and I would call it the third green wave. Part of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS)and would include live GPS data, Variable speed limits, Dynamic traffic light sequence driverless cars and trucks, Map management, etc. 9www.Economists.co.za

10. The original savings of 10% are apparently surpassed with these modern methods which some firms claiming a 21% improvement in time spent in traffic over older style traffic coordination. (what first green wave is now called). Dresden in Germany saved 29% overall time co-ordinating trains, trams, trucks, vehicles, pedestrians. The flexible self-control approach reduced time stuck waiting in traffic by 56 percent for trams and buses, 9 percent for cars and trucks, and 36 percent for pedestrians crossing intersections Without trams in cities and trains running outside normal road traffic the saving in other cities such as Zurich was much higher for cars and trucks. Some American commercial ventures claim they can save up to 39% of overall time and fuel and carbon – mainly without trams and trains – I think. 10www.Economists.co.za

11. A real case study from Purdue University for the Indiana Department of Transport in November 2001 shows 44% less stops and savings of between 0 and 16% in travel time in normal systems while adaptive systems achieve added travel time saving of between 8% and 25%! (Since then algorithms have improved!) Lets take World Bank figure of 10% (on simple systems) and save another say 15% on the other 90% that would mean a TOTAL SAVING OF 23.5% on average! Saving 23,5% of your fleets time, fuel and carbon footprint what a real opportunity. 11www.Economists.co.za

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13. Turn left on red when clear would save another 1,5% says the World Bank in a study of Asian traffic. Another factor is stopping illegal stopping which could save another 2% to 8% ( perhaps in our cities as a result of taxis we could save even more) 13www.Economists.co.za

14. Just before green light comes on the orange light flickers warning trucks and cars that they can expect to go soon. This is estimated to save another 1,5% - 3% in time and fuel also allows for smoother flows as well as others driving to red robot are informed that adjusting speed would mean no stopping. 14www.Economists.co.za

15. Highways should have minimum speeds as this would also save about 1-2% in fuel and time. Keep left pass right to be applied. Higher speeds in low population areas say 130km or 135km. More no Stopping and Stopping Areas. No stopping distances even when safe to be increased. Clear stopping allowed areas. Estimated long distance savings at least 3% in total up to 6% 15www.Economists.co.za

16. Every year the ten biggest small traffic delays get money allocated to them to help. An example would say a 2km stretch of road that is a single lane but both sides are double lane in other areas. Build the extra lane. Many vehicles turn left but no special lance for it. Create 100 m of extra lane and better traffic flow occurs. 16www.Economists.co.za

17. Better fuel could save as much as 7% in Carbon and 5% in fuel savings. Better maintenance of trucks, tires etc. can save a further 5% or even more. Next generation of Engines would reduce fuel by 5% together with better fuel. Better Airflow truck and trailer bodies also save fuel. 17www.Economists.co.za

18. Total for city transport could be as much as 5% to 7% on top of the Green wave technology. Long distance saving are much smaller but proven at levels up to 6%. 18www.Economists.co.za

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20. I honestly believe from were SA cities are now we can save at least 15% and up to 39% in going for modern green wave technologies. I would say Trucks could save 25% on Fuel, emissions and time! Adding the other city green type technology trucks should save 30% plus in fuel etc. in cities. Add the long distance saving of say 5% by just better traffic management. Say half your costs are city based and half long distance based the average saving would be 17,5%! Plus how many more deliveries can you make! 20www.Economists.co.za

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22. Questions. www.Economists.co.za 22