1. The Future of Technology Presentation of the 2003 IEEE Fellows Technology Survey Prof. R. Struzak ryszard.struzak@bluewin.ch School on Radio Use for Information and Communication Technology The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics ICTP Trieste (Italy) 3 - 21 February 2003 These notes are for internal use only

2. Many predictions made in the past have proved to be dramatically wrong......even when made by experts with impeccable credentials...

3. Famous Quotations

4. Airplane Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible Lord Kelvin famous physicists, 1897 –1903: Wright traveled 37 m –today: booming industry

5. Telephone (1) Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit voice over wires and that, were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value –Boston Post editorial, 1865 1896: Bell got the first patent today: booming industry

6. Telephone (2) This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communications –Western Union (leading telegraph company), an internal memo, 1896 1896: Bell got the first patent 1998: >~750 M telephone lines, or ~13 lines / 100 inhabitants world average (source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report 1998)

7. Computers (in general) I think theres a world market for, maybe, 5 computers –Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943 1998: >~750 M telephone lines, or ~13 lines / 100 inhabitants world average (source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report 1998)

8. Personal computers (1) I didnt see anything useful in building home computers Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, rejecting a 1970s proposal for a home computer

9. Personal computers (2) There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home –Ken Olsen, Founder & President of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977 1998: ~234 M PCs, or ~4 PCs / 100 inhabitants world average (source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report 1998)

10. Cinema Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? –H.M. Warner, famous film maker), 1927 1927: first talking picture today: booming industry

11. Radio Radio has no future –Lord Kelvin, famous physicists, 1897 1896: Marconi - 1st transmission at 1.6 km distance

12. - Storm Petersen, Danish humorist Prediction is difficult - especially of the future

13. Every year a number of young people enter the University, each carrying a small portion of knowledge. These portions are accumulated there during the years of studying. That is the reason why the University became the center of knowledge. »After Bernard Shaw

14. When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. »Clarke's First Law

15. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is by venturing a little way past them into the impossible. »Clarke's Second Law

16. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. »Clarke's Third Law Any technology distinguishable from magic is insufficiently advanced. »Gregory Benford's Corollary to Clarke's Third law: