1. Impact of flooding in Mediterranean Europe: the case of Catalonia MARÍA DEL CARMEN LLASAT Meteorological Hazards Analysis Team Department of Astronomy & Meteorology University of Barcelona, Spain carmell@am.ub.escarmell@am.ub.es http://www.am.ub.es/~carmell http://www.am.ub.es/~carmell carmell@am.ub.eshttp://www.am.ub.es/~carmell Participating Institution in the MEDEX programme Workshop on Social Impact Research in MEDEX. Barcelona 23-24 February 2004

2. A.The framework: Floods in the Mediterranean Europe B. Catalonia: events 2002, damages, casualties, space, time C. The answer: public policies against floods Besos River, 25 September 1962, 815 deaths

3. Part A: the framework The social perception from the press: What is it telling us? The social perception from the reinsuraces companies: What are they telling us? The social perception from the facts: What are they telling us?

4. 1 – Heavy rainfalls, floods and landslides 2 – Wind storms 3 - Snow and cold 4 – Forest fires, agromet. risks and heat waves 5 - Sustainable development, climatic change, polution 6 - Alert chain 7 - Others The social perception from the press: What are they telling us? RINAMED project

5. CAUSENº EXPED.%PAYED% Flood228.17855,171.574.530.94575,86 Earthquake10.7332,5916.141.1440,78 Atypical cyclonic storm125.27730,29227.870.56510,98 Sideral bodies fall30,0041.4700,00 Terrorism24.7085,97178.523.5318,60 Riot1460,04668.9660,03 Popular rising4.9821,2041.852.4082,02 FF.AA. actuations6400,151.117.2390,05 Various18.9464,5834.916.0631,68 TOTAL413.6131002.075.662.330100 Expedients and compensations payed by the CCS 1971-2002. Source CCS The social perception from the reinsuraces companies: What are they telling us?

6. Flash-floods: Catalonia, 10 June 2000: 215 mm/3h, 5 casualties, 65. 10 6. Floods: East of Spain, 19-25 October 2000: 177 mm/24 h (>600 mm), 11 casualties Flash-floods: Gard region, 8 September 2002: 687 mm/24 h, 23 casualties, 1,2. 10 6 Floods and landslides (+ snowmelt): Lombardia, 13-27 November 2002, 559 mm(5 days), Private damages: 8.182.000 euros, Public damages: 5.430.000 Montserrat, June 2000 Aaramon, sep 2002 The social perception from the facts: What are they telling us?

7. Part B: The Catalan case 2002: Two events of different social impact. Why? The role of the mass media From damages to risk: some considerations in basis to objective information

8. An event with a great social impact TheCastelldefels event, 8-10 October 2002

9. Castelldefels event, 8-10 October 2002

26. Castelldefels event, 8-10 October 2002: Why the social impact was so strong? 36 headlines in press 169.4 mm/24 h (201)156 mm/12 h (199) 127,7 mm/6 h (198) 45.7 mm/1 h (148) The cumulated rainfall? Hydroptimet project

27. The damages? Firemans exits: 370 4 houses collapsed 6 h traffic-jam: 1000 cars Airport control center inondated >200 flights cancelled Great losses in Agriculture (>70% in Baix Llobregat) Cuts: Power electricity (>30.000 users), underground, train, Debris flow in Garraf mountain Hail The forecast?. Flood warnings in different parts of Spain

28. 319.1 mm/24 h (26)280.9 mm/12 h (26)243.1 mm/6 h (26) 68.6 mm/1 h (26) A different case: theEmpordà event, 9-12 April 2002 20 headlines (including sea storm and temporal of snow) Why this difference? The cumulated rainfall?

29. Empordà event, 9-12 April 2002 Firemans exits: 150 600 scholarships evacuated. Cuts: roads, streets, power electricity (>5.000 users) Partial destruction of some river channels Damages in some buildings (mainly, parkings) Damages in agriculture Wind storm: Ebro Delta (waves of 4 m); Alt Empordà, 128.5 km/h NW (waves of 5 m) The damages?

30. The specific affected area? Differences in orography and geomorfology, land uses, hydraulic infraestructures Case A 20 years: 24000 to 46000 inhabitants in Castelldefels Previous flood on 12 September, (287 mm/6 h) 1.000.000 October flood 892.000 The Council of Castelldefels asked the declaration of Catastrophique Zone Case B La Jonquera (frontier Spain France): 60.000 The role of the mass media: >news and TV time devoted to the Castelldefels event

31. EventP(mm)DeathsL(10 6 )Exped(CCS)P (CCS) () 22/10/1907 29 17-18/10/194080090 25/9/196225081516 20-23/9/19714001942 6-8/11/1982556142701.58715.899.787 1-5/10/1987431101.0003.24313.214.694 9-10/10/19944009 604.63146.830.863 10/06/20002245662.95227.510.603 The worst events: Some figures about the damages Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros: Quantities payed during 2002 Barcelona 24.714.080 (mainly Castelldefels cases) Tarragona 2.204.838 (mainly Empordà + Castelldefels cases) Girona 1.904.816 (mainly Empordà case) Lleida 61.466 TOTAL 28.885.200

32. Some questions arise from those observations The more the rainfall the more the flood? More risk more damages? More damages more floods? More floods more rainfall? More information less casualties? Social Impact Damages Vulnerability + Hazard =Risk

33. The more the rainfall the more the flood? 1900-2000 Llobregat basin: 11 cases the highest rainfall / 35 Cases affected by floods Ter basin: 12 cases the highest rainfall / 48 cases affected by floods Segre basin: 5 cases the highest rainfall / 9 cases affected by floods

34. More risk more damages? However, in the previous 8 selected cases (20th century) the Llobregat basin was always affected 14th-20th centuries Girona: 121 floods Baix Llobregat: 112 floods Lleida: 41

35. Nr. of overflows: 175 Nr. of overflows: 344 More damages more floods? SPHERE project

36. Nr. of overflows: 86 Nr. of overflows: 125 More damages more floods?

37. TESTS FOR TREND Spearman Rank Statistic: rs = 0.881 <? Tkrit_97.5% = 33.295 (O.K.) Mann-Kendall Rank Statistic: t = 0.680 <? Tkrit_95% = 0.073 (OUT) Linear Regression: y = 0.0032·x – 0.5397 Trend Accumulate slopes for extraordinary floods in Maresme Basin More floods more rainfall?

38. More damages more floods? 1900-2000: A flood increasing? 1950-2000: Flood ? P>150 mm 1950-2000: Extraordinary floods > catastrophic floods

39. More information less casualties? 1971-2002: Reinboursements payed CCS 1900-2000: casualties produded directly by floods

40. Part C: The answer: public policies against floods Special Report presented by the ombudsman of Catalonia: delimitation of flood risk zones + information to citizens maintenance hidraulic/measurement infraestructures + reflexion about reinsurance systems INUNCAT VI Long-Term Plan 2004-2011World Meteorological Organisation: Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme: to ensure the integration of relevant activities being carried out under the various WMO Programmes in the area of disaster prevention and mitigation, and to provide for the effective coordination of the pertinent WMO activities with related activities of international, regional and national organizations involved, including civil defence organizations

41. Thanks for your attention Thanks to the members of GAMA for their support