1. Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Ag Outlook
Panama, Iowa
Mar. 3, 2016
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.4
168.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,601
13,825
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
1,837
Imports
160 36 32 50 40
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,382
15,702
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,315
5,300
5,425
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,209
5,225
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,359
1,370
1,375
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,650
1,700
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,545
13,725
Ending Stocks
1,977
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.60
3.45
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
82.7
82.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.0
46.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,930
3,810
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
450
Imports 41 72 33 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,151
4,289
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,880
1,900
Seed & Residual
105
107
145
131
125
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,843
1,690
1,825
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,861
3,701
3,850
Ending Stocks
440
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.80
8.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

7. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

8. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

9. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

10. Corn Grind for Ethanol

11. Current Corn Futures
3.65
3.53
3.50
Source: CME Group, 2/29/2016

12. Current Soybean Futures
8.59
8.30
8.33
Source: CME Group, 2/29/2016

13. 2016/17 Crop Margins

14. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

15. Key livestock market highlights
Crop & feedstuffs situation – ADVANTAGEOUS for livestock sector
Size of hog industry driven by recent profitability – Productivity to guide 2nd half 2016 supply prospects
Still relatively tight cattle-beef supplies but expansion well underway – 2015 was a year of transition
HPAI in poultry in – Rebuild/expansion underway
Relatively stable domestic dairy herd expected through – Worldwide production up, prices lower
U.S. consumer demand has been GOOD – International trade a bit of a drag but should improve

16. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 16 16

17. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

18. Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

19. Top 10, 2015 to 2016 Head % TX +160,000 +3.9% OK +73,000 MO +61,000
+3.3% NE
+96,000
+5.5% SD
+79,000
+4.9% KS
+4.3% MT
-10,000
-0.7% KY
+24,000
+2.4% IA
+40,000
+4.4% FL
+9,000
+1.0%
Total
593,000
+3.5%
Data Source: USDA/NASS

20. Data Source: USDA/NASS

22. U.S. Beef Exports, Jan-Nov 2015
(Volume excluding by-products & variety meats)
Nov-15/Oct-15
Nov-15/Nov-14
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Mexico
-11%
12%
-69,053
-17%
Japan 0%
-29%
-116,705
-19%
Canada 8%
-39,577
-12%
South Korea
17%
15,516 6%
Hong Kong 7%
-90,431
-25%
China (Taiwan)
-3%
13%
3,734 4%
Vietnam
143%
3,774
52%
Netherlands
-15%
1,873 5%
Philippines
25%
110%
4,095
16%
United Arab Emirates
-31%
1,437
11%
Dominican Republic
-24%
-7%
2,902
Chile
21%
-2,694
Italy
47%
-43%
-1,462
-8%
Other Countries
20%
-3,948
Total
-1%
-290,540
WASDE U.S.: 2014: 2,573 mil lbs : 2,263 (-12%) : 2,475 (+9%)
Source: USDA/ERS

23. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

25. Data Source: CME Group

26. New Pork Packing Plants (2017) Sioux City, IA ― Seaboard/Triumph
Coldwater, MI ― Clements Foods
Data Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, Vice President, Pork Analysis, Express Markets Inc. Analytics.

27. U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Nov 2015
(Volume excluding by-products & variety meats)
Nov-15/Oct-15
Nov-15/Nov-14
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Japan 4%
15%
-27,271
-2%
Mexico 5%
26%
162,566
13%
Canada 8% 3%
-14,198
-3%
South Korea
24% 9%
108,051
32%
China (Mainland)
-5%
90%
-82,764
-26%
Hong Kong
16%
55%
-4,035
-4%
Australia
11%
72%
18,375
Philippines
-48%
18%
-24,088
China (Taiwan)
-66%
11,508
48%
Honduras
30%
40%
13,149
29%
Colombia 0%
-15%
-19,484
-16%
Dominican Republic
56%
16,546
38%
Guatemala
28%
5,049
17%
Chile
-38%
-62%
-2,831
-7%
Other Countries
-111,678
-41%
Total
19%
48,894 1%
WASDE U.S.: 2014: 4,857 mil lbs : 4,946 (+2% vs 2014) : 5,125 (+4% vs 2015)
Source: USDA/ERS

28. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: