1. Masood Ahmad Lead Water Resources Specialist ADFD/WB Project Preparation and Appraisal Workshop Abu Dhabi, April 2010 Project Preparation, and Appraisal in the Water Sector – Pakistan Punjab Barrages Improvement Project

2. Pakistan Punjab Barrages Improvement Project Project to rehabilitate Jinnah Barrage on the Indus River (see Map for Location) The Barrage was constructed in 1946 Whole of the Indus river flow passes through the barrage Water is diverted to one canal namely the Thal Canal Thal Canal Coves are area of about 2.1 million acres - in Thal desert Direct beneficiaries of Barrage/Thal canal are four districts Mianwali, Khushab, Bhakkar, Layyah and Muzafargharh districts Total popluation about 5 million people dependent of water supplies for from the canal About 700,000 farm families derive their livelihood directly and indirectly from irrigation The canal is the source of water for all uses, irrigation, drinking, domestic, municipal and industrial water use. Bararge is 3,781 Feet long, 56 gated bays 60 feet each Two undersluices on left and right side with seven bays each, Navigation lock, Fish ladders etc. A 95 MW power plant is being installed on the barrage would be completed in 2 years 2

3. Jinnah Barrage

5. Problems of the Barrage and Project Design Barrage is unsafe and partial or full failure is likely It is being undermined as the river bed on the downstream side has been lowered The gates malfunction Emergency repairs have been done – but the structure needs major revamping The project would construct a weir done stream to check erosion of the river bed close to the barrage All gates would be repaired, and motorized and improved with monitoring system The project would deal with social and environmental issues The project is to be implemented on an operational system, water supplies cannot be interrupted Interruption of water supply for to the project area and downstream would be economic and social crises for the country 5

6. Proposed Project Objectives: Strengthen and modernize Jinnah Bararage to enable un-interrupted supply of water to2.1 m a; and build capacity of IPD in improved water resources and irrigation management 5 million people in 5 districts, about 600,000 farm families direct beneficiaries of Jinnah Rehabilitation Component A: Rehabilitation and Modernization of Jinnah Barrage (US$112 million) A1, A2 Civil and mechanical works ($94 m) A3, Social Development and Environmental Management plans (US$9 million) Water Supply Schemes, Seed distribution, social development initiatives A4 Construction Supervision and Project Management 6

7. Proposed Project Component B: Improvement and modernization of the Irrigation and Water Management Systems (US$15 million) B1.1 Improvement and Water Management, simulation models, decision support and water accounting systems etc. (US$5 million) B1.2 Modernization of equipment for water management (US$4 million) B2. Future Project Preparation (US$6 million) 7

8. Proposed Project-- Benefits Component C: M&E of progress, impact and supervision of SADP and EMP Implementation (US$2.5 million) Component D: Support for project implementation, technical assistance and training (US$6.5 million) IDC and Upfront Fee US$19 million Benefits are large, ERR 21%, continued supply for 2.1 million acres, 5 districts, 5 million people and for 96 MW power plant, road, utility crossing etc. Improved water resources management in the province 8

9. Risks, Safeguard Issues Environment, Social Project is rated Substantial risk Sheer size of construction on operational system Possible Procurement issues and country environment Mainly due to possible Interruption to water supplies Accidents, breaching of coffer dam etc. Reputational risks Upgraded to Category A Environment: Positive impact in the long runs, issues during construction which can be mitigated through the proposed EMP Monitoring of Indus blind Dolphins by wildlife institute (best estimate is 2 between Jinnah and Chashma barrge) Social: Positive in the long run, Issue: interruption to supplies during construction -- SDAP to address issues Water supply schemes, seed distr. Part, health unit, girls school 9

10. Construction Planning and Operation of the System During Construction Extensive planning for construction System of coffer dams and timing to ensure supplies downstream ----250,000 cusecs for meeting downstream demands –fisheries and aquatic life Sequencing to ensure continued supplies to Thal canal Extreme care to supply water for Mohajir Branch of Thal canal which has saline groundwater and people depend on canal water for drinking water. Provision of feeder canal with 1,500 cusecs Contingency plans in case of unforeseen situation, SDAP and EMP Water supply schemes -rehab and construction Distribution of seed Hospitals, schools, etc. in the project area 10

11. 11 Construction Planning

12. Nov 30 Complete coffer dam Oct 15 start construction of coffer dam Carry out construction December to May January during canal closure Jan-Feb complete coffer dam March-May construction March –May construction 12 Construction Planning

13. Communication Strategy To keep people informed of the construction schedule and possible implications of operation of the system – allow to make them plans To get feedback from people and use best possible schedule to minimize negative affects Use of media, existing organizational structure of IPD Special unit under PMO to for communication during construction 13

14. Program Coordinator Barrages Review Cell, P&D Department Deputy Program Coordinator Barrages Review Cell, P&D Department Program Coordinator Barrages Review Cell, P&D Department Deputy Program Coordinator Barrages Review Cell, P&D Department PROJECT STEERING COMMITTEE Secretary (Irrigation & Power) Secretary (Finance) Secretary (Environment) Secretary (Public Health) Secretary (Forestry & Wildlife) Chief Executive Officer, PRSP Member, Infrastructure Development, P&D Department Head, PMO (Secretary of PSC) Punjab Barrages Monitoring and Implementation Unit Component B1 Punjab Barrages Monitoring and Implementation Unit Component B1 CHART -I

15. Economic Analysis Estimates of Financial and Economic costs Estimates of cost (financial cost) -- September 2009 prices Construction costs estimates of quantities, use of unit rates, physical contingencies, taxes, price escalation, and interest during construction Supervision costs Monitoring and evaluation costs Cost of social action plan, cost of environmental management etc, Estimates of economic cost Taxes and duties are taken out Price contingencies are taken out 15

16. Economic Analysis Estimates of Benefits Quantified benefits and Unquantified benefits Quantified benefits Major benefits are from irrigated agriculture The deterioration of Jinnah Barrage would lead to reduced water and untimely supplies to the Thal canal covering some 2.1 million acres of irrigated area The current cropping intensity of 103 percent would gradually decrease to 87% over a period of ten years -- without Project Scenario With the project the area would get full supplies and the cropping intensity would increase to 113 percent Crop production in without and with project scenarios is valued in economic prices of each commodity and by products. Crop budgets are prepared for each crop grown in the area A farm level model is developed for a typical cropping pattern and input outputs for a 5 ha farm 16

17. Unquantified benefits Avoided erosion of land and safety of infrastructure on it The power plant on the Barrage of 96 Mw would have reduced energy production Catastrophic scenario If the barrage partially or fully collapses it would take about 5 years to reconstruct The reconstruction cost would be about US$500 million if all bays do not collapse Estimated crop loss would be about US$87 million per year This would result in economic and social crisis for the country ERR is estimated about 21.7% NPV is US$80 million in economic terms at 12% discount rate 17 Economic Analysis Estimates of Benefits

18. Sensitivity Analysis 18