2. The Changing Career Outcomes of Scientists and Engineers in Academe: Sharon G. Levin, Grant C. Black, Anne E. Winkler, Paula E. Stephan The Role of Immigrants Immigrants

3. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, and the Graduate School and College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Missouri St. Louis. Professors Levin and Stephan are members of the Network on the Scientific Workforce administered by the National Bureau of Economic Research with resources provided by the Sloan Foundation.

4. Background The United States has experienced a significant expansion in the number of doctoral degrees awarded in science and engineering (S&E) over the past three decades. 9,014 21,235 (1966) (1996) (1966) (1996)

5. Background New doctorates, especially in the biosciences, are experiencing difficulty in obtaining permanent positions in academe; the number of temporary positions, especially postdocs, have proliferated. 13.8% 17.9% (1979) (1997) (1979) (1997)

6. Background The growth in U.S.-trained S&E doctorates in the United States has largely been fueled by foreign citizens. 13.7% 20.8% (1979) (1997) (1979) (1997)

7. The Research Question Are immigrant doctorates in S&E displacing their citizen counterparts from positions in academe, especially the choice permanent positions within academe?

8. Methodology & Data To measure displacement, we pose the following counterfactual...

9. Methodology & Data What would have happened to employment of U.S.-citizen (immigrant) S&E doctorates if their employment had grown at the overall growth rate for all S&E doctorates combined, regardless of citizenship status?

10. Methodology & Data We then compare the actual employment growth in a specific sector (ACADEME, NONACADEME, OTHER) of a specific citizenship group (citizen or immigrant) with the amount predicted using the counterfactual.

11. Methodology & Data Data are from the 1973-1997 Survey of Doctorate Recipients. ACADEME refers to those individuals who are either employed full-time or hold a postdoctoral position in a university, four-year college, or medical school.

12. Methodology & Data Data are from the 1973-1997 Survey of Doctorate Recipients. NONACADEME refers to those individuals who are either employed full-time or hold a postdoctoral position in other sectors of the economy.

13. Methodology & Data Data are from the 1973-1997 Survey of Doctorate Recipients. OTHER refers to all else including those who are employed part-time, unemployed, or students pursuing additional degrees.

14. Interpreting the Analysis There are two reasons why we may observe, for example, that employment growth for citizens in academe is smaller than predicted given the counterfactual…

15. Interpreting the Analysis First, the citizen share of S&E doctorates may have declined (the minting effect).

16. Interpreting the Analysis Second, citizens may have experienced slower employment growth in academe than in other sectors (the competitive effect).

17. Interpreting the Analysis Thus, to determine whether displacement has occurredwhether citizens have fared relatively poorly compared to their immigrant counterparts in academe, we subtract the immigrant competitive effect from the citizen competitive effect (both measured in percentage terms to adjust for the difference).

18. Results: displacement from and within academe Over the period 1979-1997, with few exceptions and all quite small, both immigrant and citizen S&E doctorates lost employment share in academe relative to other sectors. Both groups had negative competitive effects in this sector.

19. Results: displacement from and within academe For each field, and without exception, the competitive effects are larger in absolute value for citizens than for immigrants; thus citizens have been displaced.

20. Results: displacement from and within academe Displacement is greatest for citizens in the mathematical/computer sciences and in the biological sciences.

21. Displacement from ACADEME, 1979-1997 Competitive Effects Displacement CitizensImmigrants All Fields Combined -13.9%-6.8%-7.1% Engineering-16.3%-8.8%-7.5% Life Sciences -11.4%-0.7%-10.7% Biological Sciences -12.8%0.8%-13.6% Physical Sciences -19.6%-8.2%-11.4% Earth/Environmental0.0%1.3%-1.3% Chemistry-16.3%-5.5%-10.8% Math/Computer-29.4%-14.6%-14.9% Physics and Astronomy -31.1%-22.9%-8.2%

22. Results: displacement from and within academe Most of the displacement of citizens from academe, however, can not be attributed to their lack of success in holding full-time faculty, especially permanent, tenure-track positions. This is not true, however, in physics and astronomy.

23. Displacement from ACADEME, 1979-1997 From broad sector ACADEME From Tenure- track faculty (PERM) From temporary positions (TEMP) All Fields Combined -7.1%-0.6%-6.5% Engineering-7.5%-1.0%-6.5% Life Sciences -10.7%1.6%-12.3% Biological Sciences -13.6%0.8%-14.4% Physical Sciences -11.4%-4.0%-7.4% Earth/Environmental-1.3%14.1%-15.4% Chemistry-10.8%3.8%-14.6% Math/Computer-14.9%-3.2%-11.7% Physics and Astronomy -8.2%-6.2%-2.0%

24. Implications Some U.S.-citizen-scientists have likely paid for society-wide gains that immigration has fostered in U.S. science by having been involuntarily displaced from positions in academe.

25. Implications But the costs have probably been mitigated by the pull of positions outside academe in certain fields.