1. Department of Environmental Quality
November 30, 2016
Department of Environmental Quality

2. State Perspective on Hydrologic Modeling
Tom Fransen
Division of Water Resources Department of Environmental Quality
Yadkin-Pee Dee Water Management Group
Kickoff Meeting
November 30, 2016

3. Key Issues That Shape Current NC Water Supply Planning
Drought of
Session Law (House Bill 795)
An Act to Reform and Amend the
State Environmental Policy Act
New Thresholds
Greater than $10 Million in State Funds
Greater than 10 acres of substantial permanent changes
Except for Interbasin Transfer Certifications.
Drought Fontana Lake (Sept 9-10, 2007)
Interbasin Transfer
South Carolina vs. North Carolina - Key Facts
As related regional sustainability
Understand how NC got to were we are today we need go back to the drought.
Shelby getting water from Kings Mnt thru Cleveland County
High Rock or Dry Rock Lake
Note conditions in lower TN impacted NC.
An ACT to reform and amend the State environmental policy act.
Case originates in the Supreme Court. South Carolina seeks an equitable apportionment of the Catawba River, which starts in North Carolina and flows into South Carolina.
Granted – October, 2007
Dismissed – December, 2010

4. Division of Water Resources, NCDEQ
Planning Can Help Prevent This
… If Instream Flows
and Uses
are Included
in the Equation
As you hear, still a challenge to find the balance between instream flow needs and off-stream usage,

5. Planning Can Help Prevent This
Central Coastal Plain Capacity Use Area (CCPCUA) 15A NCAC 15A.0500
Became effective in 2002 and is limited to a 15 county area in the eastern portion of NC.
Contains permitting and registration requirements for withdrawals from surface and groundwater sources. Annual water use reporting is also required.
50% - 75% reduction in ground water usage, not able to fully use installed infrastructure.
We control or nature will create a crisis.
All uses public & ag.

6. Managing Water Resources to Support North Carolina’s Future
Regional Planning
Jordan Lake Regional
Water Supply Partnership
Catawba Wateree Water Management Group
CWWMG – Non-Profit Duke FERC Relicensing join or pay Duke
JLRWSP – Jordan allocation – control of their destiny, not State
There is the start of a Yadkin WMG similar to CWWMG, CWWMG providing support. Barry positive cost/benefit. Also, seen studies shows planning a good return on the investment
Region? How to define basin/multi-county – COGs - news media markets
What can DWR do to help encourage/support?
Managing Water Resources to Support North Carolina’s Future

7. Water Resources River Basin Management
Division of Water Resources, NCDENR
Round 4 Jordan Lake W/S Allocation
Water Resources River Basin Management
Water Resources Management
Basin Model
Basin Plan
HYDROLOGIC MODEL
Integrated Basin Plan
Water Resources Management
Model tools not end product
50-year planning horizon
SL Improve River Basin Modeling
Modeling shift focus from real goal
Group India touring the US impressed at the level & quality NC collects and the fact are using data do better management.

8. New Integrated River Basin Planning Vision
Division of Water Resources, NCDENR
New Integrated River Basin Planning Vision
The new basin plans will integrate the State’s water quality and water quantity into a single plan.
The plans will be web based approach.
The data will be updated dynamically using the most current data available in DWR’s databases.
Will then become the water supply/quantity piece of the new integrated basin plans, prior to any model approval discussions.

9. Story Map
I’m hoping to configure the map on the main panel to shift to the stream that is being discussed in the side panel. A legend is located in the upper right corner of the main panel. Clicking on this will drop down a legend that shows you what the symbols represent on the map. Click on a symbol and you will get “tiles” that have information related to that symbol or that point on the map. Scrolling through the tiles with the arrows located on the top bar of the tile will show you the information that is stored for that particular point. Biological samples will display the stream name, the date the sample was collected, whether it was a basin sample or part of a special study (benthic only), the EPT scores, and bioclassification or rating. Information will also be displayed about the stream classification, AU number and description, use support category, and HUC name and area (acres).

10. Improve River Basin Modeling – SL 2010-143
(3) Model. – Each basinwide hydrologic model shall:
Include surface water resources within the river basin, groundwater resources within the river basin to the extent known by the Department, transfers into and out of the river basin that are required to be registered under G.S H, other withdrawals, ecological flow, instream flow requirements, projections of future withdrawals, an estimate of return flows within the river basin, inflow data, local water supply plans, and other scientific and technical information the Department deems relevant.
Be designed to simulate the flows of each surface water resource within the basin that is identified as a source of water for a withdrawal registered under G.S H in response to different variables, conditions, and scenarios. The model shall specifically be designed to predict the places, times, frequencies, and intervals at which any of the following may occur:
Yield may be inadequate to meet all needs.
Yield may be inadequate to meet all essential water uses.
Ecological flow may be adversely affected.
Be based solely on data that is of public record and open to public review and comment.
EMC – deferred model approvals until General Assembly fixes the statute.
Models not rule making, but how we use them could be subject to rule making.
Part of the problem is eflows both an input and a evaluation criteria.
6/12/2015

11. Modeling Basics Hydrologic Cycle
Division of Water Resources, NCDENR
Modeling Basics Hydrologic Cycle
Questions
Is there enough water to sustain expected uses now and in the future?
DWR does consider ecologic flows to be part of “expected uses”.
Where, when and for how long could we expect to experience shortages?
GS (o) required questions:
Locations and time ecological flows may be adversely impacted.
Locations and time yield may be inadequate to meet all essential uses.
Locations and time yield may be inadequate to meet all needs.
Water Balance Model
Inflow – Outflow = Change in Storage

12. NC Basin Modeling Approaches
Division of Water Resources, NCDENR
Round 4 Jordan Lake W/S Allocation
NC Basin Modeling Approaches
Major Rivers and Large Reservoir Projects
Net aggregated withdrawals
(First Roanoke Basin Model had 7 nodes total, current version about 60 demands and 8 reservoirs.)
First basin model was done in the mid-1970s for the Yadkin Capacity Use Area Study.
Added nodes for each withdrawal and discharge location of 100,000 gpd or larger.
Discrete nodes with operations data to link withdrawals and discharges (Cape Fear-Neuse model 329 nodes)
Aggregated approach for agricultural demands.
Evolving towards both a hydrology and systems operations model. More detail on how withdrawals and discharges are managed including water shortage response plans.
Modeling is not new. DWR has been doing from at least the mid to late 1970s.
Not only the platform changes, but also the approach and goals.
Models water quantity as water moves downstream considering additions and deletions at specified locations.
Built on OASIS with OCL™ platform developed by HydroLogics, Inc.
Not for flood analysis
Does not model water quality
Does not directly model ground water

13. Systems/Reservoir Operators
Model Input
Model Input Types/Sources:
Hydrologic
Model
Historical
Flows:
USGS
Operation
Guidelines:
Systems/Reservoir Operators
Water Use:
Users/Systems
Local Water
Supply Plans:
Municipal Data
Self-supplied
Industry:
Industrial Data
Agriculture:
Agri Data
Other
Registered
Withdrawers:
Golf Course
Evaluation
Criteria
Model Input Categories :
Time Series Hydrologic Data:
Unregulated USGS gages
Net evaporation from reservoirs
Physical data:
Reservoir Stage-Storage-Area curves
Turbine characteristics
Channel capacities
Operating Policies:
Rule curves
Minimum releases/environmental flows
Drought and flood management policies
Energy requirements

14. Division of Water Resources, NCDENR
Neuse Drought Plans - Example
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
Trigger
Response
Orange- Alamance
180 dsr
10%
135 dsr
20%
90 dsr
30%
Hillsborough
Durham
See insert
SGWASA
< 60% (-76 in) 5%
<50% (-129 in)
< 40% (-155 in)
< 30% (-186 in)
25%
< 0% (below top of intake)
50% Rationing
Creedmoor
Use SGWASA
Raleigh
50%
vol 8%
15%
Goldsboro
intake 52 ft msl
Voluntary
Intake
50 ft msl
mandatory, 30%?
Intake 49.5 ft msl
Crisis - additional 15-20%
Wilson
Buckhorn 144 ft (-4 ft), < 60%
Buckhorn 142 ft (-6 ft), < 43%
Buckhorn 140 ft (-8 ft), < 30%
Buckhorn 138 ft (-10 ft), < 19%
135 ft (-13 ft), < 10%
rationing (50%?)
Examples of drought plans we are modeling:
Lake Levels
Days of Storage Remaining
Combined storage from multiple reservoirs, seasonal, different responses when the drought is getting worse vs. recovery.
dsr – days of storage remaining

15. Local Water Supply Plans One of the Key Data Sources
Need to know who is using how much, from were and how much and were it’s going back into the streams.

16. Model Schematic Model Components Nodes: Points of control
such as reservoirs, withdraws,
river junctions.
Arcs: Arrows/lines showing how
water flows from one node to
the next – river segment, pipe , etc.
Department of Environmental Quality

17. Model Analysis of Output
Division of Water Resources, NCDENR
Model Analysis of Output
Yield may be inadequate to meet all needs. – Run the model with the drought plans turned off.
Yield may be inadequate to meet all essential water uses. – Run the model with the drought plans turned on.
Ecological flow may be adversely affected. – Using a flow variation as percent of mean annual flow approach (a NC modified version of the Tennant method).
SL caused us to look at output differently. We have always had as 1 of the main objectives is to determine locations were demand would exceed availability. Now we need refine that analysis to look at all needs vs. essential needs. The SL does define essential, but isn’t helpful to in developing a modeling analysis procedure. We made the assumption that drought plans are/or should protect essential needs.

18. Model Output

19. Do wastewater assumption impact model results?
Department of Environmental Quality

20. Location of future discharges
Did a sensitivity analysis using didn’t combinations of discharge, above and below the reservoir; and transferred out of the basin. What to look at how Jordan WS yield is impacted.
Department of Environmental Quality

21. What’s Next? (NYC Operations Support Tool)
This is an illustration of major components of the NYC OST
OST collects data from a variety of sources (on left of diagram)
OST stores that data in the “Observations Database”
The observed data can then be used by the system model – the linked OASIS and CE-QUAL-W2 models,
Various post-processing tools allow the users to evaluate alternative operational choices that were simulated with the system model

22. No tracking of who changed what, when
OST Address shortcomings of legacy simulation tools (including classic OASIS)
No tracking of who changed what, when
Not easy to combine data from two different simulations into a third
Not easy to reliably identify all ways that one simulation differs from another
Not easy to document the pieces
No tracking of who changed what, when
critical for accountability of changes made since they can have important operational consequences
Not easy to combine data from two different simulations into a third
for a large model it can be like trying to find a needle in a haystack
Not easy to reliably identify all ways that one simulation differs from another
Not easy to document the pieces
want to avoid the situation where the documentation is separated from the input data (all too often the model lives in the computer and the documentation and assumptions are added to a document or nonexistent)

23. OST
Ideal for multiple users to manage large sets of simulation runs, including daily simulation for operator support.
Ideal for being hosted on a server that can be accessed by users from multiple locations
Common database for users to share data
Metadata and storage of past simulations for accountability
Has been combined with databases that accumulate real-time observed data that can be used to initialize position analysis simulations and forecasts.

24. Division of Water Resources, NCDENR
Calendar
Year
Status of River Basin Hydrologic Models
Completed models
2011
Broad and Tar models completed
2012
Broad receives EMC approval; Cape Fear and Neuse combined model begun
2013
Catawba, Roanoke, Cape Fear and Neuse combined models completed
2014
Tar-Pamlico model completed
Schedule for remaining basins
2017
French Broad, New, and Watauga
2018
Lumber and Yadkin Pee Dee
2019
Hiwassee and Little Tennessee
2020
Albemarle Sound, Chowan, Onslow Bay, and Savannah
Current Funds available about $95K
Lower right – Basins/Models don’t stop at state line.
Lower left - Tennessee Valley potentially broader than just across the stateline.
Roanoke oldest update as part of the Kerr216 & KRLWS IBT
Broad and Tart new models
Neuse good shape but as part of the Jordan WS Allocation updating Cape Fear & merging with Neuse.
Catawba – CHEOPS needs to be reviewed
Talking with TVA about the Tennessee Valley Basins.
Model Cost
New $250, – 24 months
Update $150,000 6 – 9 months
Cost and time for EMC approval?
file: TVA Basinwide Hydrologic Models ppt

25. Yadkin Pee Dee Model Combined Catawba-Yadkin Pee Dee Model? Lumber?
OASIS or CHEOPS?
Current Contract
Operations Support Tool (OST) – OASIS
$345,000 Total
$76,500 – Upgrade Roanoke, Tar, Broad, & Cape Fear – Neuse to OST
$268,500 – French Broad & Combined Watauga-New
$114,400 Impairment Data (HDR) out of the $268,500 (43%)
SC?

26. Contact Information
Tom Fransen
Chief, Water Supply Planning Section
Division of Water Resources
Note – website name change.
DWR - deq.nc.gov/about/divisions/water-resources
Planning Section - deq.nc.gov/about/divisions/water-resources/planning
Department of Environmental Quality