1. WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP) Concept and progress Yu Hui （余晖） Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA

2. Outline Backgrounds and objectives
Implementation tasks and organization
Progress
Collaboration with the THORPEX TCEFP
Future plan

3. Backgrounds
Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009
A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project
Implementing duration:
2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off  
Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP

4. Objectives
To enhance the ability of forecasters to issue timely and accurate typhoon forecasts and strengthen the ability of decision-makers to analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecasts
To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced typhoon forecasting technique in the world
To assess the WMO-TLFDP’s impacts on enhancing the typhoon forecast service as well as its social and economic benefits
To promote the implementation of the most up to date forecast technique for landfall typhoons in typhoon-affected Members of WMO 
To enhance the capability of forecasting typhoon landfall for the “Shanghai MHEWS” to enable SMS to provide enhanced typhoon forecast service during Shanghai Expo 2010

5. Implementation tasks Collection of real-time forecast data
Verification of forecasts
Forecast integration techniques and reliability analyses
Dissemination of products
Benefit Assessment

6. Organization International Scientific Steering Committee
Co-chairs: Prof. Lianshou CHEN
Dr. Xu TANG
Project Coordination Group
East China Regional Steering Committee
Team 1
Data collection and
dissemination
Team 2
Forecast verification
Team 3
Forecast integration
Team 4
Benefit assessment
Team leaders:
Dr. Binke ZHAO
Dr. Hui YU
Dr. Barbara BROWN
Mr. Xiaofeng WANG
Mr. Zhiqiang CHEN
Ms. Liying TAO
Mr. L.S. LEE

7. Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center
Organization
Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA
Lead agencies
East China RMC/CMA
RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center
WWRP/WMO
Coordination departments
TCP/WMO
PWS/WMO

8. Progress Real time data collection Products dissemination
Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009
A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project
Implementing duration:
2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off  
Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
Real time data collection
Products dissemination
Forecast evaluation and reliability analyses
Benefit assessment
Training and demonstration

9. List of typhoon forecast products providers (TFPPs)
Full name
Abbreviation
Ways of contribution 1
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ECMWF
GTS, FTP and via TIGGE 2
Hong Kong Observatory
HKO
GTS and FTP 3
Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration
ITMM
FTP and Intranet of CMA 4
Japan Meteorological Agency
JMA 5
Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the United States
JTWC
GTS 6
Korea Meteorological Administration
KMA
GTS and via TIGGE 7
Meteorological Service of Canada
MSC
Via TIGGE 8
National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the United States
NCEP 9
National Hurricane Center of the United States
NHC
FTP 10
National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration
NMC/CMA
GTS, FTP, Intranet of CMA and via TIGGE 11
East China Regional Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological Administration
ECRMC 12
RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center of the World Meteorological Organization
RSMC Tokyo 13
Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration
STI
FTP, Intranet of CMA and via TIGGE

10. List of products collected in real time
Type
TFPP
Track
Intensity
Wind Radii
2-D gridded surface wind
2-D gridded precipitation
3-D gridded model output
Official FCST
HKO
JTWC
KMA
NMC/CMA
RSMC Tokyo Y
Y (A)
Global model
ECMWF
JMA
Regional model
STI
ITMM
RMCEC
Ensemble prediction
MSC
NCEP
Cconsensus prediction
Statistical prediction
NHC/USA
Y (P)
A: only analyses available; P: probability

11. Data Archiving
All the related data and products of named tropical cyclones since May 2010 are archived by SMS
Available to research, training and capacity-building activities

12. Progress Real time data collection Products dissemination
Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009
A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project
Implementing duration:
2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off  
Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
Real time data collection
Products dissemination
Forecast evaluation and reliability analyses
Benefit assessment
Training and demonstration

13. Operational website of Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center -- a component of Shanghai MHEWS
In Chinese
Released in July 2010
In support of EXPO2010

14. HKO QMORPH Product
STI/CMA TC Size Forecast Product

15. MICAPS TC Plug-in
A tool for browsing and analyzing tropical cyclone information together with other data from multiple sources.
In support of EXPO2010

16. Website of the project (http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn)
Released in June, 2011

17. Sample images FY-2E Satellite images Striking probability
(EPS and super-ensemble)
Track & intensity forecast and real time verification
Gridded model output
High winds striking prob.

18. Progress Real time data collection Products dissemination
Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009
A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project
Implementing duration:
2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off  
Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
Real time data collection
Products dissemination
Forecast verification and reliability analyses
Training and demonstration
Benefit assessment

19. Operational TC forecast verification practice in the western North Pacific region
The current operational status of TC forecast verification is analyzed on the basis of an survey covering all the Members of UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee
Main conclusions are
Significant efforts have been focused on the verification of TC forecast guidance by operational forecast agencies in the region
Only a few verification products are available for the probabilistic forecasts from EPS
Verification of TC precipitation and high wind forecasts are also lacking sufficient attention in the region

20. New attempts by TLFDP Track and landfall forecast
Relative forecast skill of TC moving speed and direction
Hit rate of landfall
Relation between track forecast error and guiding flow
Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009
A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project
Implementing duration:
2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off  
Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
Evaluation form of TC landing point forecast in (China)
Method
CONS_MODEL
CMA_GSM
GRAPES-TCM
ITMM_TMM
JMA_GSM
ECMWF_GSM
Average Error(unit:km)
44.5
59.2
99.6
128.6
47.3
51.8
SSR: R (unit:%)
66.7%
72.2%
83.3%
61.1%
SFR: F (unit:%)
85.71%
92.9%
93.8%
80.0%
100%
91.7%

21. Relation between track forecast error and guiding flow

22. New attempts by TLFDP Intensity forecast
Skill score
Category skill score
Joint charts of POD and FAR
Trend analyses
Relation between intensity forecast error and initial intensity error of NWP models
BS, PRS, and ranking analyses of EPS forecasts
Skill scores versus chance of eight TC intensity forecast techniques

23. Reliability analyses based on initial intensity error of NWP model

24. New attempts by TLFDP Precipitation forecast
List of real-time MET products for SMB-WARMS
Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009
A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project
Implementing duration:
2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off  
Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
Variables
Resolution of the Model
Verified Region
Verification Indices
Observation
TMP/P850
RH/P700
HGT/P500
WIND/P500
15km & 9km
Model region
MODE, DOE, RMSE, MAE, ME, CORR
Analyses field of the model
2m TMP
10m WIND
9km
MODE, DOE, RMSE, MAE, ME, CORR
Precipitation
A combination of TRMM precipitation and surface observation
ECR & Individual provinces
DOE, RMSE, MAE, ME, CORR , ETS, TS, TSS, Accuracy, POD, FAR, MAR
Surface observation

25. MODE products for 24h precipitation initialized at 00UTC August 31 2010.
forecast of SMB-WARMS;
Observation.
24h precipitation from
(a) SMB-WARMS and (b) MICAPS, initialized at 12UTC August

26. An evaluation system for tropical cyclone forecast
Based on the experiences gained through the implementation of TLFDP and a survey on current operational status of TC forecast verification in the western North Pacific region, an evaluation system for TC forecast is proposed and will act as a guideline for future work of TLFDP.

27. Progress Real time data collection Products dissemination
Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009
A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project
Implementing duration:
2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off  
Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
Real time data collection
Products dissemination
Forecast evaluation and reliability analyses
Training and demonstration
Benefit assessment

28. June 2010, Shanghai
11 lecturers from 9 institutions
Trainees: 20 forecasters working for the World Expo 2010
June 2012, Shanghai
11 lecturers from 9 institutions
Trainees: 40 forecasters

29. Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center (STWC)
A component of Shanghai Multi Hazard Early Warning System
Monitor and forecast tropical cyclones in North West Pacific, especially those with potential to affect Eastern China Region (ECR)
Issue tropical cyclone warnings for ECR
WMO-TLFDP Homepage
Operational website of STWC
Data Collection
Verification

30. Progress Real time data collection Products dissemination
Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009
A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project
Implementing duration:
2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off  
Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
Real time data collection
Products dissemination
Forecast evaluation and reliability analyses
Training and demonstration
Benefit assessment

31. Benefit assessment
A series of surveys were carried out to assess the benefit of the WMO-TLFDP
The survey’s objects were divided into three groups: public users, industrial and special users and meteorological forecasters
The objective of the public user survey is to gauge the public’s opinions on the accuracy of weather forecasts and typhoon warnings issued by SMS
The objective of the forecaster survey is to gauge the forecaster’s opinions on the typhoon forecasting and on the typhoon objective techniques during the project period

33. Forecasters’ need: the most troubling issue in TC forecasting

34. Collaboration with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
From TCEFP to TLFDP
TC EPS products in CXML format
Verification information on TC EPS products
Training (to help forecasters prepared to use TC EPS products)
From TLFDP to TCEFP
Ideas or requirements on user-oriented TC EPS products
Feedbacks on how and to what extent TC EPS products benefit the operational forecast and public service
Training (to popularize the experience of using TC EPS products to broader users)

35. Training on EPS and popularization of the experience
Dr. Tetsuo Nakazawa, June 2010, Shanghai
Dr. Jing Chen, June 2012, Shanghai
Dr. Hui Yu, November 2010, La Reunion

36. A selective consensus method for track forecast based on EPSs

37. Evaluation of intensity forecasts from EPSs
(a) Brier score of the seven TIGGE ensemble prediction systems in 2010; (b) The same as (a) but with initial correction; (c) Improvements in Brier score by initial correction.

38. WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP)
The WMO-TLFDP has made significant progress in various aspects, which can be summarized as follows:
Real-time TC forecast products are collected through various ways from a total of 13 agencies, including the TIGGE TC EPS products from 7 agencies.
A real time verification platform of TC forecast has been set up.
An evaluation system for TC forecast has been set up.
A variety of TC forecast and verification products are disseminated through the WMO-TLFDP website (
A new landfall typhoon forecast flow based on the products of WMO-TLFDP has been experimentally set up in ECRMC/CMA, in which the TC EPS products are playing an important role.
Based on a benefit assessment of TC forecast services in Shanghai from 2010 to 2011, the overall satisfaction factor is fairly high up to 82.3%. 38

39. Future Plan The project will be continued till the end of 2015
Two teams will be formed for the continuation
Demonstration application of new TC forecast products and verification techniques
Benefit assessment

40. Thank you for your attention.
For more information, please visit WMO-TLFDP website:
(Please to Mr. LI Qingqing
for username and password.) Tang X., X.T. Lei, H. Yu, 2012: WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP) - Concept and Progress. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review.