1. Peru: Cycles of Political Change Max Cameron Poli 332

2. Structural Conditions at Independence Centre of Spanish colonial domination: Peru was an important Vice Royalty in the colonial period: It had the mines and labor to support a massive aristocracy. Economic base extractivist (mining) and labor-repressive (large landholdings or latifundios) Ethnic heterogeneity very high: Peru has a large indigenous population, with history of rebellion (e.g. Tupac Amaru II)

3. Political Processes 1.Long period of post-independence anarchy 2.Oligarchy consolidated (mid-19 th century) 3.Radical populism. Pressures for change in 1920s-1930s resisted (military veto on APRA) 4.Military rule. End of rural bosses, rise of the Shining Path 5.Redemocratization and neoliberalism in 1980s 6.Electoral authoritarianism, precarious democracy, no left turn.

4. Peru loosely fits Modal Pattern I Long period of anarchy Repressive oligarchy Radical populism & persistence of oligarchy Reformist military rule and rural insurrection Electoral authoritarianism and neoliberalism followed by low quality democracy Agro-ex economyISI & IncNeoliberalismLeft turns 19 th C to 19301930-1960 1960-1980 Exhaustion of ISI 1980-2000 2000- Pattern I

5. 1. Post-Independence Anarchy Replacement of Spanish elite by creoles. Indigenous peoples rejected the notion of Peru as a creole nation. Caudillos in the Andes –Weak central government located in Lima –Powerful and despotic landlords and gamonales (rural bosses) –Power dispersed through the countryside, caudillo power loosely connected and often conflicting network of gamonales, in partnership with the largest latifundistas (landowners).

6. Political Instability & Economic Malaise Peru experienced 24 changes of government (one, on average, per year between 1821-1845); the constitution was rewritten six times Agricultural sector affected by wars Government unable to pay the salaries of the military and bureaucracy

7. 2. Consolidation of Oligarchy: Ramón Castilla By mid-Century, oligarchy begins to consolidate. Ramon Castilla two times president: 1845-1851 and 1855-1862 Guano era: opportunity for development with limited long-term effects –Reinforces Lima elite, consolidates power of sugar and cotton hacendados State consolidation guano revenue. Construction of railroads as a primary transport system. Abolishment of indigenous forced labor and slavery.

8. Civilismo and modernization Manuel Pardo, founder of the Civil Party and first civilian president, 1872-1876. Western model of railway expansion as a means to modernize and strengthen the Peruvian neocolonial economy. Worldwide depression of 1873 led to a sharp decline in exports and financial crisis –Bureaucracy shrinks, the armed forces were reduced –Replacement of guano for nitrate mining

9. The War of the Pacific (1879 – 1883) Peruvian-Bolivian treaty in 1873 to assure each country come to the aid other if its territorial sovereignty was violated by a third party. Bolivia vs Chile: nitrates tax conflict. Chilean invasion pushes acknowledgment of the treaty by Peru (President Manuel Ignacio Prado) Chilean armed forces were superior, leading them to victory. Result: Peru looses Tarapacá and Arica to Chile. Bolivia looses Antofagasta.

10. Post-war recovery Revenue from guano and nitrates almost disappeared. Income from sugar, cotton, silver, gold, copper and other exports were reduced to 25% of the pre-war level. Political instability until Andres Avelino Cáceres and the Reconstruction period –Grace contract: development of silver mining and recuperation of stability until 1893 –Early industrialization: growing number of workers Return of civilism after coup of Cáceres.

11. Manuel Gonzales Prada (1844-1918) The “clique of Creoles and foreigners who inhabit the strip of land between the Pacific Ocean and the Andes do not form the real Peru; the nation is made up by the Indian masses spread across the Eastern slopes of the mountains. The Indian has dragged along at the bottom level of civilization for three hundred years, as a hybrid with the vices of the barbarian without the virtues if the European. Teach him only to read and write, and you will see whether or not in a quarter of a century he will rise to the dignity of a man.”

12. Oligarchy Modernization through: elite consensus involving major political parties and economic sectors Social base: landowners, exporters, businessmen and bankers in Lima with ties to the state and foreign capital President Nicolás de Piérola promoted the capitalist development but the central government continued to rely on gamonales in the countryside Mining sector is dominated by foreign private capital

13. 3. Emergence of Populism Expansion of the working class due to early industrialization Big strike on 1919: –8 hours work –Wave of violent strikes Students seek university reform Rise of “Generation of 1919” (Haya and Mariategui)

14. Augusto B. Leguía and the Oncenio Won election in 1919 then secured military backing to close congress and rule as a dictator. Governed for eleven years (Oncenio) Sought to industrialized the country and supported the development of a bourgeoisie –Increase of state bureaucracy –Promotion of irrigation works and railroads Stock market crash in 1929 & Depression Lt. Col. Luis M. Sanchez Cerro revolts from garrison in Arequipa and Leguía flees

15. Víctor Raúl Haya de la Torre (1895-1979) Born in Trujillo (sugar growing north) Sent into exile in 1923 1924 founds American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA) while in Mexico Republican, democratic ideas were inappropriate in a heterogeneous society divided along racial and class lines. Peru had democracy “in name only.” Constitutional government was a “façade that masked cruel and despotic rule.”

16. José Carlos Mariategui (1894-1930) Born Moquegua, lived in Lima Founded Socialist Party of Peru and Peru’s main labor union confederation (CGTP) Peru a “country in which Indians and foreign conquerors live side by side but do not mingle with or even understand one another. The republic feels and declares its loyalty to the viceroyalty and, like the viceroyalty, it belongs more to the colonizers than to the rulers. The feelings and interests of four-fifths of the population play almost no role in the formation of the national identity and institutions.”

17. 1931 election Luis M. Sanchez Cerro, who had brought down Leguía, ran for civilistas against Haya de la Torre and APRA Both ran populist campaigns Sanchez Cerro won Aprista assassination attempt leads to crackdown APRA insurrection in Trujillo Massacre at Chan Chan, after which military-APRA relationship poisoned

18. Instability (again) Brief periods of military government. –Democracy: Bustamante y Rivero (1945- 1948) Solo entre 1945 Continuity of oligarchic structure, slowly in decay. Veto against APRA, persecution of its leaders

19. Augusto B. Leguía y Salcedo Augusto B. Leguía y Salcedo (1919-1930) Manuel María Ponce Brousset Manuel María Ponce Brousset (1930) Luis Miguel Sánchez Cerro Luis Miguel Sánchez Cerro (1930-1931) Mariano Holguín Maldonado Mariano Holguín Maldonado (1931) Ricardo Leoncio Elías Arias Ricardo Leoncio Elías Arias (1931) Gustavo A. JiménezGustavo A. Jiménez (1931) David Samanez Ocampo y SobrinoDavid Samanez Ocampo y Sobrino (1931) Luis Miguel Sánchez Cerro Luis Miguel Sánchez Cerro (1931-1933) Oscar R. Benavides Larrea Oscar R. Benavides Larrea (1933-1939) Manuel Prado y Ugarteche Manuel Prado y Ugarteche (1939-1945) José Luis Bustamante y Rivero José Luis Bustamante y Rivero (1945-1948) Zenón Noriega AgüeroZenón Noriega Agüero (1948) Manuel A. Odría Amoretti Manuel A. Odría Amoretti (1948-1950) Zenón Noriega Agüero Zenón Noriega Agüero (1950) Manuel A. Odría Amoretti Manuel A. Odría Amoretti (1950-1956) Manuel Prado y Ugarteche Manuel Prado y Ugarteche (1956-1962) Ricardo Pérez GodoyRicardo Pérez Godoy (1962- 1962) Nicolás Lindley LópezNicolás Lindley López (1963) Fernando Belaúnde Terry Fernando Belaúnde Terry (1963-1968) Juan Velasco Alvarado Juan Velasco Alvarado (1968-1975)

20. Final Collapse of Oligarchic Domination (1950s-1960s) Gamonalismo (oligarchy) persisted until 1960s “Structural dualism” Haciendas and peasant communities Peasant mobilization in 1950-60s Guerrilla movement Belaúnde government: page 11 of the contract with the International Petroleum Company*

21. 4. Reformist Military Regime (1968-80) Revolutionary Government of the Armed Forces A corporatist, nationalist regime Goals: restoration of national sovereignty over resources and territory, reduction of dependency on foreign States and capital, promotion of national industry, and the undertaking of long-overdue land, labor and industrial reforms

22. Economy during Velasco Land reform, peasant co-ops Expropriation & nationalization of industries, ISI Industrial communities; unionization Anti-imperialism Unintended consequences: –Social mobilization –Rise of a “new left” Economic crisis led to internal coup and finally democratization

23. 5. Democracy and Neoliberalism Constitution of 1979 –Progressive features Shining Path Maoists initiate “Prolonged Peoples’ War”

24. José Matos Mar’s Desborde Popular Argued that the “Creole republic” (i.e. the state institutions of “Official Peru”), had lost the ability to exclude and marginalize the Andean majority (the “Marginal Peru”). Legislative and judicial institutions—not to mention parties, large firms, unions, the church, the armed forces, and the bureaucracy—formed part of “Official Peru,” and they were monopolized by literate Creoles. “Marginal Peru” was made up of smaller scale neighborhood associations, peasant self-defense groups, or “rondas,” the informal and subsistence economies, and indigenous cultural organizations generally composed of bilingual, often illiterate, sometimes unilingual Quechua or Aymara speakers.

25. Sendero Luminoso Emerged from the breakdown of oligarchic domination –Story of Lino Quintanilla Armed propaganda: “terrifying act that breaks the rules of civil society.” -- D.S. Palmer. “el pueblo clama y nosotros respondemos a ese clamor, a esa exigencia, sentimos lo que sienten y queremos lo que quieren, quieren que sus manos hablen el lenguaje preciso y contundente de los hechos armados.” -- Guzman

26. The Caudillo Messiah Use of Biblical and messianic language: evoke world of violence as a form of purification. Example of militarization of language: “Contra la fascistizacion del gobierno de Apra” – Bandera Roja graffiti in Comas. Cult of the leader: absolute authority of “Dr.” Disdain for dialogue: preference for violence. “Marxism-Leninism-Maoism-Guzman thought”

27. Violence and Hyperinflation

28. 6. From Precarious Democracy to Electoral Authoritarianism and Back: The Rise of Fujimori Elected 1990 as “outsider” Autogolpe in 1992 –Close congress –Suspend constitution –Purge courts –Rule by degree –Call for referendum Result:1993 constitution with wider executive powers, more neoliberal features

29. State Response –The role of intelligence (Montesinos & Colina group) –Selective executions and disappearances –Military courts –The Ronda Campesina –Repentance law –Will to win

30. The Capture!

31. Collapse of a Hybrid System

32. Neoliberal Governance Model Adopted since 1993 Economic liberalization through privatization of national industries New role of private corporations in economy and society Continuity with concentration on primary commodity exports to drive economic growth and generate rents for the State

33. Differences Between Constitutions 1979 Constitution Popular sovereignty Vote given illiterates Interventionist state Many forms of property, including social, mixed Social rights Land cannot be alienated Constitutional Tribunal 1993 Constitution No mention of popular sovereignty Limited state, emphasis on free enterprise Private property Inviolability of contracts Land can be alienated Regime of exception Referenda

34. Neoliberal Goverance Emphasis on the market model (i.e. the “Washington Consensus”) Technique of governance or “reason of state”: promotion of competition and utility maximizing Negative power: –Demobilization –Deregulation –Privatization –Targeted spending –Entrepreneurship (emprendador culture) –Consumerism (compra y calla)

35. Effects of Neoliberalism Limited progress redistributing wealth “Unhappy growth” Extractivism and social conflict Weak state, especially outside Lima, persistence of corruption No “left turn” (i.e. shift toward more participatory modes of governance, redistribution of wealth/income, social citizenship)

36. Why Does Peru not Shift Left? Toledo (2001-2006) (continuity) Garcia (2006-2011) (the left turn missed - rejection of Chavismo) Humala (2011-2016) (the left turn that wasn’t – “hoja de ruta”) PPK (2016-present). Banker, dual citizen Internal conflict and perception of threat; shift of population to Lima, trickle down along the coast; and financial wealth

37. Comparative Lessons The oligarchic system of political domination that rested on a ruling class in Lima with ties to foreign capital, on the one hand, and local gamonales and landlords in the countryside, on the other, persisted late and resisted populist pressures until reformist military rule. This led to the elimination of gamonalismo without replacement by another system, and rural insurrection The current system continues the centralist pattern with high levels of conflict around extraction in rural areas.

38. Quality of Democracy Continuing reliance on extractivism poses governance challenges Deeply entrenched neoliberal and technocratic model Slow progress toward social inclusion Weak parties and representative institutions Weak civil society Low level of satisfaction with democracy