1. Post-compulsory education in England: Choices and implications Sandra McNally Centre for Vocational Education Research, LSE Centre for Economic Performance, LSE University of Surrey

2. Sources Making a Difference in Education: What the evidence says Robert Cassen, Sandra McNally, Anna Vignoles. Routledge. 2015 Post-Compulsory Education in England: Choices and Implications Claudia Hupkau, Sandra McNally, Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela and Guglielmo Ventura CVER Discussion paper July 2016 http://cver.lse.ac.uk/

3. Wider context Relatively low productivity Relatively low social mobility ‘Long tail’ of underachievers Complex system of post-16 education (except for A- levels)

4. Complexity of post-16 education A complex system of post-16 education. Options outside A- levels often poorly understood and not discussed enough. Consequence is that it is difficult to sign-post students, parents, employers about range of options, quality, progression routes One of our first major projects at CVER has been to follow a cohort of students (who completed GCSEs in 2009/10) as they progressed through the education system.

5. AgeYearPhase Curriculum stages QualificationsInstitutionsQualificationsInstitutions Post compulsory 18+14 Tertiary Level 4 & above Higher education institutions Further education colleges Classroom- based Entry level - level 3 Vocational, technical education and remedial education Employer-based Level 2 - Level 6 Apprenticeships and other on-the job education and training Further education colleges Private education providers Other public providers 17-1813 Upper sec Key Stage 5 Level 3 A/AS levels/Applied Generals/Tech Levels Sixth form colleges / Schools 16-1712 Compulsory education* 15-1611 Lower secondary Key Stage 4 Level 2** GCSEs Secondary schools 14-1510 13-149 Key Stage 3 12-138 11-127 10-116 Primary Key Stage 2 National tests Primary schools 9-105 8-94 7-83 6-72 Key Stage 1 Teacher assessments 5-61 4-5RReception Pre-school settings 0-4 Pre-school Notes:*The leaving age in England where individuals must engage in some form of education or training became 17 in 2013 and 18 in 2015. **Level 2 in GCSEs is achieved with grades A*-C

6. The data We use data from – National Pupil Database for prior attainment (age 11 (KS2) and age 16 (KS4)) – …and for age 18 (KS5) outcomes – Higher Education Statistics Agency for university attendance – Individual Learner Record for further education We create a panel for ages 16-20 for the cohort of 2010 KS4 completers (turning 16 and taking GCSEs in 2010)

7. Level 3 and 4+ qualifications Level 4 and above: Bachelor degrees and other vocational qualifications at Level 4 and above Level 3 : A-Levels Applied Generals Tech Levels Key Skills / Functional Skills or NVQs Other Level 3

8. Level 2 qualifications and below Level 2 Tech Certificate Vocational qualifications at Level 2: – BTECs at level 2 that do not fall under the Tech Certificate category, – NVQs at level 2, – Diplomas, Awards or Certificates at level 2 – and any other qualifications at level 2 that do not fall into any of the aforementioned categories. Key/Functional Skills at Level 2 GCSEs Below Level 2: All those with highest level of learning at L1 and below. Apprenticeships Unknown Not observed

9. Composition of learners at different ages Cohort undertaking GCSE in 2009/10 (575,000 students) Age 17Age 18Age 19Age 20 Above level 3 00.0425.335.4 Level 3 qualifications Mainly A-Levels 44.838.25.90.3 Mainly Applied Generals 5.39.25.61.3 Mainly Tech Levels 4.47.44.81.9 Mainly KS/NVQ Level 3 0.040.4 0.2 Mainly other Level 3 3.55.13.11.5 Level 2 qualifications Mainly Tech Certificates 1.81.91.10.6 Mainly vocational qualifications at level 2 9.56.93.92.6 Mainly Key/Functional Skills Level 2 0.50.30.40.2 Mainly GCSEs 0.90.2 Level 1 and entry level Below level 2 10.85.94.63.7 Apprenticeships Apprenticeship Level 2 5.68.18.47.2 Apprenticeship Level 3 1.32.95.16.0 Apprenticeship Level 4+ 00.010.10.2 Unknown qualification 5.481.6500 Not observed 6.0111.7730.8638.62

10. Activity at age 17: Share achieving 5+ GCSEs at A*-C

11. Activity at age 17: Share ever eligible for free school meals in each main category

12. Composition of Learners by activity at age 17 Stay-on Age 18 Level 3 qual by age 20 Commence apprent: age 18-20 Commence L3 apprent: age 18-20 Univ. Degree Russell Group other Level 4+ Total Main activity at age 17%%%% Level 3 Any level 3 qualification63.479.738.841.893.296.477.758.1 A-Levels49.362.825.930.083.594.547.7 44.8 Applied Generals5.66.85.04.44.50.910.4 5.3 Tech Levels4.75.74.24.33.40.512.8 4.5 Other Level 33.74.43.83.21.70.46.8 3.5 Level 2 Any level 2 qualification12.08.414.112.02.20.49.112.7 Tech Certificates1.61.32.11.70.10.01.0 1.8 Vocational qualifications at level 29.06.410.79.21.90.37.6 9.5 Level 1 and entry level Below level 29.92.69.65.20.20.11.4 10.9 Apprenticeship7.04.227.834.20.80.46.1 6.9 Unknown5.34.05.04.12.71.53.8 5.5 Not observed2.1.14.72.71.01.31.9 6.0 Total 507,304386,959118,18746,814192,78143,39523,087574,967

13. Probability of achieving a Level 3 qualification by age 20 (relative to those studying below level 2 at age 17)

14. Probability of starting a university degree by age 20 (relative to those studying below level 2 at age 17)

15. Probability of starting an apprenticeship between age 18-20 (relative to those studying below level 2 at age 17)

16. Probability of starting a L3+ apprenticeship between age 18-20 (relative to those studying below level 2 at age 17)

17. Second chances or stuck? Number of years in learning at or below Level 2 Number of consecutive years in learning at or below Level 2 Main activity at age 17 234 234 Total number Level 3 Any level 3 qualification1.20.10.0 1.10.10.0333,985 A-Levels 0.80.10.0 0.70.10.0256,819 Applied Generals 2.70.30.0 2.40.30.030,956 Tech Levels 2.50.30.0 2.30.30.025,612 Other 3.20.50.0 2.80.50.020,330 Level 2 Any level 2 qualification 29.211.23.2 23.87.33.2 72,926 Tech Certificates 25.48.01.6 18.64.71.610,312 Vocational at level 2 28.610.83.1 22.97.03.154,801 Level 1 and entry level Below level 2 39.524.012.2 40.617.112.262,428 Apprenticeship 3.30.50.0 2.90.50.039,315 Unknown 9.23.00.0 7.93.00.031,552 Not observed 7.72.10.0 6.52.10.034,761 Total9.94.41.7 9.13.21.7 574,967

18. Key findings Current system does not lend itself to an easy categorisation (especially for Level 2 and below) Over half of all students undertaking Level 2 at age 17 do not achieve Level 3 by age 20. Thousands pursue courses at this level for 3 or 4 consecutive years. Profile of those doing an apprenticeship is very different from those on an academic track