1. Development of a climate-to-fish-to- fishers model: proof-of-principle using long-term population dynamics of anchovies and sardines in the California Current Jerome Fiechter, UC Santa Cruz ( on Behalf of the NEMUROMS.SAN Group) ePOPf meeting, Portland, 21 Sep 2010

2. Kenneth A. Rose Louisiana State University Enrique N. Curchitser Rutgers University Kate Hedstrom Arctic Region Supercomputing Center Jerome Fiechter University of California – Santa Cruz Miguel Bernal Instituto Español de Oceanografía (Spain) Shin-ichi Ito Fisheries Research Agency Salvador Lluch-Cota CIBNOR (Mexico) Bernard A. Megrey National Marine Fisheries Service Chris Edwards University of California – Santa Cruz Dave Checkley Scripps Institution of Oceanography Alec MacCall National Marine Fisheries Service Tony Koslow SIO - CALCOFI Sam McClatchie National Marine Fisheries Service Ken Denman Institute for Ocean Sciences (Canada) Francisco Werner Rutgers University

3. Motivation Much emphasis on climate to fish linkages –Global change issues –Bottom-up, middle-out, top-down controls Increasing pressure for ecosystem-based considerations in management –Full array of interactions within an ecosystem, including humans (instead of single species) Development of end-to-end ecosystem models –Multi-species, individual-based, physics to fish –Proof of principle, continuation of NEMURO effort

4. Motivation The human component…

5. Proof of Principle Sardine – Anchovy cycles –Well-studied species with population cycles observed in many systems –Teleconnections across basins Good case study –Forage fish tightly coupled to NPZ –Important ecologically and widely distributed –Low frequency variability Provided by: Salvador E. Lluch-Cota Source: Schwartzlose et al., 1999

6. Source: MacCall, 1990 Californian Anchovy Larval Abundance April 1952 Low Anchovy Abundance April 1965 High Anchovy Abundance

7. End-to-End (E2E) Ecosystem Model (NEMUROMS.SAN) Sub-Model 1: 3-D ROMS for ocean circulation Sub-Model 2: NEMURO for NPZ Sub-Model 3: Multiple-species IBM for fish Sub-Model 4: Fishing fleet dynamics Today: progress to date –Solved many numerical and bookkeeping issues –Next is to add more realistic biology

8. Why ROMS Framework Fish IBM Sardines Anchovies Predators Regional Ocean Circulation Model NPZ Component (multiple) Floats Component Data Assimilation Climate Coupling Fishing Fleet

9. ROMS-CCSM Coupling – Climate Forcing Focus on Upwelling Regions - California Current System - Humboldt Current System - Benguela Current System

10. 3-D ROMS for Ocean Circulation California Current Grid - 30 km horiz. resolution - 30 vertical levels Run duration - 40 years (1960-2000) - hourly time step BC/IC: SODA-POP - Monthly SSH, U, V, T, S (Carton et al., 2000) Surface forcing: CORE2 - 6-hrly wind stress, heat fluxes - Daily radiation, monthly E-P (Large and Yeager, 2008)

11. NEMURO for Lower Trophic Levels (Nutrients, Phytoplankton, and Zooplankton)

12. Fish IBM: Species Types Why individual-based model (IBM) –Natural unit in nature –Allow for complicated life history –Plasticity and size-based interactions –Conceptually easier movement Sardines and anchovy (full life-cycle) –Reproduction, growth, mortality, movement –Competitors for food (P,Z) Predator species (e.g., albacore) –Consumption and movement only –Relative biomass to scale mortality

13. Fish IBM: Growth and Mortality Growth: –Bioenergetics for weight –Consumption from multi-species functional response –At maturity, allocate energy to growth or reproduction Mortality –Natural (temperature and stage dependent) –Predation (predator species dynamics, vary spatially) –Fishing (fishing fleet dynamics, vary spatially) Maximum consumption: f(W, T) Holling Type II feeding curve

14. Fish IBM: Movement Eggs, yolk-sac, and larvae moved by physics - Vertical position assumed at 50 m depth Juveniles and adults moved by behavior - Day-to-day vs. seasonal migrations -Kinesis for sardines and anchovies (Happiness-based behavior; Humston et al, 2004) - Fitness for predator species (Maximized growth behavior; Railsback et al., 1999) Each fish has continous x, y, and z position - mapped to 3-D grid at each time step to determine cell location and local conditions

15. Fishing Fleet Targeting sardines in the California Current Movement based on engineering, economics, behavior (evaluated once daily in model) Maximize revenue based on expected CPUE - Num. of ports: 6 (CA(3), OR(1), WA(2)) - Num of boats per ports: 10-30 - Average catch per boat: 40-60 tons - Boat motoring speed: 20 km/h - Time to fish/process catch: 2 hours - Average price for catch: 0.1-0.15 $/kg

16. CA Commercial Fish Landings (2009) Source: CA Department of Fish and Game Sablefish (~2K tons) N. Anchovy (~3K tons) Pacific Sardine (~38K tons) P. Mackerel (~5K tons) Dover Sole (~3K tons) Fisheries Peak: ~700K tons (1936)

17. Numerical Details Major numerical and bookkeeping challenges Solving everything simultaneously, eventually physics with an offline option –However, it is the fish IBM that takes computing time Super-individual approach for IBM –Sheffer et al., 1995 –Allocation of super-individuals (array management) –Super-individuals eating super-individuals –Bisection to start new super-individuals as eggs each day based on spawner locations

18. NEMUROMS.SAN (1994-2004) Fully coupled ROMS + NEMURO + Fish + Predators + Fleet (20,000 individuals; 1,000 predators; 100 fishing boats)

19. Weight at AgeTotal Egg ProductionDiet Composition Sample NEMUROMS.SAN output (1960-2000) Mean Depth (m) Mean Temperature (C)

20. Next Steps It can be done – proof of principle –2 days to run 40 years with 20,000 individuals –Target: 500,000 super-individuals Can we calibrate and validate this model? –Very challenging: Physics, NPZ, Fish Is it useful? –Need to increase biological realism –Investigate the causes of low-frequency cycles in sardine and anchovy –Parallel effort in Japan to provide a geographic and ecosystem contrast

21. Next Leaps Relate to other E2E ecosystem models –Atlantis, ECOPATH w/ECOSIM, FEAST, … –Assess use for ecosystem-based management Other species, fisheries in the California Current Coho Salmon Survival (Peterson and Schwing, 2003) California Sea Lion foraging in 2004 and 2005 (Weise et al., 2006)