1. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Exploring the use of MOLAND as a system to predict emissions from mobile sources Edward Casey Under the supervision of: Dr David Timoney and Dr William Smith

2. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Outline  Aims  Rationale  Methodology  Refinements

3. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Aims  Develop a decision support tool  Allow planners to examine air quality implications of proposed developments  Based on vehicular activity

4. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Rationale  Emissions from vehicles are harmful to humans, plants and animals  Changing demand for transport changes emissions output  Species of principal interest are CO, NO x, PM, UHC  Other parameters of interest are CO 2 and FC

5. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Impact of transport on air quality Historical and current assessment Level of activity Emissions per unit activity Number of trips Type of trips Vehicle technology Driving cycle Future predictions MOLAND Project data

6. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Methodology  Bottom-up approach  Good correlation between Sustainable Energy Ireland (SEI) and study results  Alternative systems to estimate emissions (COPERT 1, TRL 2, EURO Standards, ARTEMIS 3 ) 1 Computer Programme to Estimate Emissions from Road Transport 2 Transport Research Laboratory 3 Assessment and Reliability of Transport Emissions Models and Inventory System

7. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Compiled Data Sets Fuel Type & Engine Size Emissions Standard Emissions Values Matrix (M e ) (g km -1 ) Fuel Type & Engine Size Emissions Standard Vehicle Numbers Matrix (M vn ) (#) Distance Travelled Matrix (d v ) (km)

8. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Calculating Emissions (g km -1 )(km) = g (g)(#) = g g

9. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Vehicle trends: MOLAND-VRU projections

10. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Fleet Composition Vehicle fleet in 2006: 684,655

11. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Emissions Levels +1.1 m +0.7 m +0.4 m +2.0m +1.4m -0.1m 2.2m

12. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Refinements  Examination of POWCAR data to estimate travel distances and speeds  Determination of emissions output based on kinematic data used to construct representative driving cycles

13. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 POWCAR Results 99% of all trips fall below distances of 50 km

14. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 POWCAR Results Modal distance is 11 km

15. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Driving cycle Statistical data Distance11.1 km Duration2933 s Idle time1228 s (42%) V maximum 48.0 km hr -1 V average 12.6 km hr -1 V cruise 23.5 km hr -1 Stops41 Emissions data g km -1 g CO 2 307.83416.6 CO 2.326.1 NO x 0.091.1 PM 0.0050.1 UHC 0.111.2

16. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Comparison of emissions estimation schemes Emissions output values, expressed in g km -1

17. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Data Analysis  The combination of these data can be used to predict likely changes in pollutant output  Based on projected vehicle figures and emissions limits along with real world activity estimates  Use of matrix based calculations allows planners / policy makers to see responsible vehicles quickly  System allows for interrogation of scenarios

18. UEP Steering Review 2008 04 December 2008 Thank you Comments and questions will be gratefully received.