1. The Evolution of National Polar-orbiting Operational Satellite System (NPOESS) Space Environmental Sensing Capabilities Michael Bonadonna Space and Satellite Programs Office of Science and Technology National Weather Service

2. 5th AMS Space Weather Symposium 21 – 22 January 2008 New Orleans, LA The Evolution of National Polar-orbiting Operational Satellite System (NPOESS) Space Environmental Sensing Capabilities Michael F. Bonadonna User Liaison National Weather Service The history of the development of requirements for space environmental data from polar-orbiting satellites beginning with the convergence of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite (POES) programs will be discussed. Development of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) space environmental requirements began in the mid 1990’s. As the NPOESS program was developed to meet these requirements, a robust set of space environmental sensors was planned. However, due to cost concerns and negotiations with the NPOESS User Community, certain capabilities were dropped to sustain others. In 2006, NPOESS developmental challenges drove cost increases triggering a Congressionally mandated review of the program. The review resulted in a Certified NPOESS program from which most of the space environmental sensing capabilities were removed. In response, two separate but coordinated initiatives by Air Force Space Command and the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology are underway to recover some of the NPOESS space environmental sensing capability.

3. NPOESS Program Overview and Requirements The Original NPOESS Space Environmental Sensor Suite The SESS Wars The Aerospace Independent Program Assessment Nunn-McCurdy Certification and Program Restructure Overvie w

4. NPOESS Certified Program 2 EMD Satellites plus 2 Optional (2010 decision) Bus sized to carry all sensors VIIRS, CrIS, ATMS, CERES, OMPS-N, SEM, ADCS, SARSAT remain APS, TSIS, OMPS-L, ERBS, Alt, SuS, SESS de-manifested from C1 & C2 [accommodation remains] CMIS deleted from C1 & C2 [MIS planned for C2] Ground architecture essentially unchanged Continuity, Flexibility, Affordable Advanced Capability

5. Polar MetSat Flight Schedule F17 F19 F18 F20 F16 F13 M N N’ NPP MetOp A MetOp B MetOp C C1 C2 C3 AM Mid AM PM 05060708 09 11121314151617181920212223242510 AQUA PEPSIS C4 CALENDAR YEAR NPOESS and MetOp team up to replace Heritage Systems

6. Weather, Oceanography Clouds, temperature, wind, precipitation, currents, tides, land use Nowcasting, Forecasting Routine weather, disasters, military ops Imagers, sounders, [active and passive] NPOESS Environmental Regimes Space Weather magnetic and electric fields Solar Event Forecast Communication, navigation, anomaly resolution Imagers, sounders [active and passive], particle and field probes Climate, Environment Chemistry, water, pollution, etc Long Term Monitoring Planetary implications Radiometers, spectrometers, sounders [active and passive]

7. NPOESS Integrated Operational Requirements Document IORD-II signed 14 January 2002 NPOESS Space EDRs Auroral Boundary Auroral Energy Deposition Auroral Imagery Electric Field Electron Density Profile Geomagnetic Field In-situ Plasma Fluctuations In-situ Plasma Temperature (T e & T i ) Ionospheric Scintillation Neutral Density Profile Medium Energy Charged Particles Energetic Ions Supra-thermal through Auroral Energy Particles NPOESS SESS REQUIREMENTS User Developed – IPO Executed

8. NPOESS SESS Timeline Jan 02: IORD-II approved setting NPOESS Requirements Fall 02: Baseline accepted (on contract) 20012002200320042005200620072008

9. The Original NPOESS Space Environmental Sensor Suite

10. TRW’s SESS Sensors and Performance HORUS Hyperspectral Operational Radiometric UV Sensor EUV Extreme UV Limb Imager HEPS High Energy Particle Sensor LEPS Low Energy Particle Sensor MEPS Medium Energy Particle Sensor TPS Thermal Plasma Sensor MAG Magnetometer CTBA Coherent Transionospheric Beacon Assembly GPSOS* GPS Occultation Sensor ( Not a SESS sensor) SESS provided 13 EDRs Threshold or better performance on 10 EDRs –Cost performance trades resulted in below-threshold performance on three attributes of three EDRs

11. Orbit Instrument 2130 (C4) 1330 (C5) 1730 (C6) HORUSX EUV LimbX TPSX LEPSX MEPSX HEPSX RF BeaconX MAGX GPSOSX Orbit Instrument 2130 (C1) 1330 (C2) 1730 (C3) HORUSX EUV LimbX TPSX LEPSX MEPSSEM-2X HEPSSEM-2X RF BeaconX MAGSSMX GPSOSX SESS EDRs 2130 (C1) 1330 (C2) 1730 (C3) 2130 (C4) 1330 (C5) 1730 (C6) Auroral Particles RGRRGR Auroral Energy Deposition RGRRGR Electron Density Profile RGRRGR Neutral Density Profile RYRRYR Energetic Ions RGRRGR Ionospheric Scintillation RYRRYR Med. Energy Particles RGRRGR Electric Field RGRRGR Auroral Imagery RGRRGR Auroral Boundary RGRRGR Geomagnetic Field RYRRYR In-Situ Plasma Temps RGRRGR In-Situ Plasma Fluctuations RGRRGR GreenMeets IORD requirements in specified orbit YellowDoes not meet some of the EDR attributes OrangeSome measurements address the EDR but most attributes are not met RedNo measurements made to address this EDR in specified orbit EDR Satisfaction - Baseline

12. The SESS Wars (Jan 03 - Jul 04)

13. NPOESS SESS Timeline Nov 02: Users unhappy with SESS capabilities Feb 03: SESS Review Team formed. JARG explores sensor configuration options Spring 03: IPO provided ROM costs for Replan Baseline SESS sensor configuration Dec 03: IPO/NGST/Users SESS Configuration TIM - Determined SUAG-3 ~$100M over baseline - NGST tasked to provide proposals for 7 options Jan 04: IPO forwarded two new SESS configuration options as “executable” to the JARG – 1 and 1A 20012002200320042005200620072008

14. Orbit EDR 2130 (C1) 1330 (C2) 1730 (C3) 2130 (C4) 1330 (C5) 1730 (C6) Auroral Particles RGGRGG Auroral Energy Deposition RGGRGG Electron Density Profile ROOROO Neutral Density Profile RORROR Energetic Ions RGRRGR Ionospheric Scintillation RRRRRR Med. Energy Particles ROOROO Electric Field RGGRGG Auroral Imagery RGGRGG Auroral Boundary RGGRGG Geomagnetic Field RRRRRR In-Situ Plasma Temps RGGRGG In-Situ Plasma Fluctuations RGGRGG GreenMeets IORD requirements in specified orbit YellowDoes not meet some of the EDR attributes in specified orbit OrangeSome measurements address the EDR but most attributes are not met RedNo measurements made to address this EDR in specified orbit Orbit Instrument 2130 (C1) 1330 (C2) 1730 (C3) HORUSXX EUV Limb TPSXX LEPSXX MEPSCEASE II HEPSX RF Beacon MAG GPSOS Orbit Instrument 2130 (C4) 1330 (C5) 1730 (C6) HORUSXX EUV Limb TPSXX LEPSXX MEPSCEASE II HEPSX RF Beacon MAG GPSOS EDR Satisfaction – IPO Option 1 Instruments descoped to fund second orbit plane instruments

15. Orbit EDR 2130 (C1) 1330 (C2) 1730 (C3) 2130 (C4) 1330 (C5) 1730 (C6) Auroral Particles RGGRGG Auroral Energy Deposition RGGYGG Electron Density Profile ROOOOO Neutral Density Profile ROOOOO Energetic Ions RGRRGR Ionospheric Scintillation RRRRRR Med. Energy Particles ROOROO Electric Field RGGGGG Auroral Imagery RGGGGG Auroral Boundary RGGGGG Geomagnetic Field RRRRRR In-Situ Plasma Temps RGGGGG In-Situ Plasma Fluctuations RGGGGG GreenMeets IORD requirements in specified orbit YellowDoes not meet some of the EDR attributes in specified orbit OrangeSome measurements address the EDR but most attributes are not met RedNo measurements made to address this EDR in specified orbit Orbit Instrument 2130 (C1) 1330 (C2) 1730 (C3) HORUSXX EUV Limb TPSXX LEPSXX MEPSCEASE II HEPSX RF Beacon MAG GPSOS Orbit Instrument 2130 (C4) 1330 (C5) 1730 (C6) HORUSXXX EUV Limb TPSXXX LEPSXX MEPSCEASE II HEPSX RF Beacon MAG GPSOS Instruments Added vs. Option 1 EDR Satisfaction – IPO Option 1A EDRs Improved vs. Option 1

16. NPOESS SESS Timeline Mar 04: SUAG recommendation on SESS options 29 Apr 04 EXCOM meeting – IPO presents SESS configuration recommendation. EXCOM charters an IPA 20012002200320042005200620072008

17. Aerospace IPA Background Interagency team led by Dr. Aufderhaar The IPO, JARG & SUAG Are Making a Good Faith Effort to Enhance SESS Capability to Match User Expectations NPOESS SESS Configurations –Replan Baseline: All SESS + GPSOS on a single orbit plane (C2/C5) –Compromise Solution: Distributed SESS (C1-C6) w/o GPSOS proposed by SUAG – IPO determined cost delta ~$100M: not executable –Option 1 : Fewer sensors but improved coverage (two orbit planes – C2/C5 & C3/C6) in an attempt to meet user requests (loss of Mag, RF Beacon, EUV Limb, GPSOS) –Option 1A: Additional sensors (HORUS/TPS) on NPOESS/C4 spacecraft (SESS now on C2-C6) –Option 1B: Option 1A w/ CEASE-II replaced by MEPS to address user concerns

18. R RRRGG GGGGGY In-Situ Plasma Fluctuations G G G G G O R O O G G 1730 (C6) G G G G G O R O O G G 1730 (C3) G G G G Y O Y O O Y Y 2130 (C4) G G G G G O G O O G G 1330 (C5) 1330 (C2) 2130 (C1) Orbit EDR G G G G G O G O O G G Y G Y Y Y O Y Y Y Y Y In-Situ Plasma Temps Geomagnetic Field (P 3 I) Auroral Boundary Auroral Imagery Electric Field Med. Energy Particles Ionospheric Scintillation (P 3 I) Energetic Ions Neutral Density Profile Electron Density Profile Auroral Energy Deposition Auroral Particles “USER” SATISFACTION MATRIX (2005) Includes DMSP, POES, MetOp, and SWARM GreenMeets EDR requirements in specified orbit YellowDoes not meet some of the EDR attributes in specified orbit OrangeSome measurements address the EDR but most attributes are not met RedNo measurements made to address this EDR in specified orbit SWARM SSUSI MEPED SWARM MEPED SSULI SSIES SSJ/TED SEM-2 C1 2130 C2 1330 C3 1730 XX XX XX X ORBIT SENSOR UV- Disk UV-Limb TPS LEPS MEPS MAG HEPS C4 2130 C5 1330 C6 1730 XX XX XX X Non-NPOESS Instrumentation (DMSP / POES / METOP/SWARM) X X X X X X ORBIT SENSOR UV- Disk UV-Limb TPS LEPS MEPS MAG HEPS Note: Ionospheric Scintillation & Magnetic Field are being moved to P3I status.

19. Aerospace SESS IPA: Summary of Recommendations Execute Option 1B Consider Option 1B+: Option 1B and “GPSOS-Lite” on C2-C6 Magnetic Field Data from SWARM and/or follow-On Lab microsats NPOESS program-wide offsets can fund these changes Also consider alternative payloads to satisfy SESS requirements using Preplanned Product Improvement (P3I) spacecraft margin

20. NPOESS SESS Timeline 20012002200320042005200620072008 Dec 05: NPOESS declares Nunn-McCurdy Breach. End-to-end review begins. Jun 06: N-M Review results in an ADM drastically reducing SESS capability. May 07: OSTP asks OFCM to conduct an Assessment of the N-M impact on NPOESS SESS capability Jan 08: OSTP will determine if a Phase II Assessment of alternatives and Strategies is warranted to mitigate reduced NPOESS SESS capabilities

21. NPOESS Space Environmental Data Capabilities Environmental Data Records (EDR)Pre-NM Performance Post-NM Performance Electron Density ProfileDegraded EDRNo capability Ionospheric ScintillationDegraded EDRNo capability Neutral Density ProfileDegraded EDRNo capability Auroral ImageryDegraded EDRNo capability Auroral Energy DepositionEDR satisfiedDegraded EDR Auroral Energy ParticlesEDR satisfiedDegraded EDR Energetic IonsEDR satisfiedDegraded EDR Electric FieldEDR satisfiedNo capability Medium Energy Charged ParticlesEDR satisfiedDegraded EDR Geomagnetic FieldNo capability In-situ Plasma TemperatureEDR satisfiedNo capability In-situ Plasma FluctuationsEDR satisfiedNo capability Auroral BoundaryEDR satisfied

22. Space environmental sensing continuity of polar-orbiting satellites relative to the ORD-II requirements. Polar-orbiting SESS Data Continuity Assessment

23. NPOESS SESS Timeline Jan 02: IORD-II approved setting NPOESS Requirements Fall 02: Baseline accepted (on contract) Nov 02: Users unhappy with SESS capabilities Feb 03: SESS Review Team formed. JARG explores sensor configuration options Spring 03: IPO provided ROM costs for Replan Baseline SESS sensor configuration Dec 03: IPO/NGST/Users SESS Configuration TIM - Determined SUAG-3 ~$100M over baseline - NGST tasked to provide proposals for 7 options Jan 04: IPO forwarded two new SESS configuration options as “executable” to the JARG – 1 and 1A Mar 04: SUAG recommendation on SESS options 29 Apr 04 EXCOM meeting – IPO presents SESS configuration recommendation. EXCOM charters an IPA 20012002200320042005200620072008 Jul 04: Aerospace IPA outbrief to EXCOM recommends Option 1B+ Dec 05: NPOESS declares Nunn-McCurdy Breach. End-to-end review begins. Jun 06: N-M Review results in an ADM drastically reducing SESS capability. May 07: OSTP asks OFCM to conduct an Assessment of the N-M impact on NPOESS SESS capability Jan 08: OSTP will determine if a Phase II Assessment of alternatives and Strategies is warranted to mitigate reduced NPOESS SESS capabilities

24. Summary 2002: Operational requirements for space environment data from polar-orbit have been documented in the NPOESS IORD in 2002. 2003: Initial NPOESS configuration provided satisfactory data quality and data types but insufficient coverage. 2005: After a two-year analysis and replanning effort, a modest space environmental capability was planned. 2006: Nunn-McCurdy Review results in a drastic reduction in NPOESS Space environmental sensing capability 2007: As requested by OSTP, OFCM completed assessment of N-M impact to national space environmental services. 2008: OSTP will determine if a Phase II Assessment of alternatives and Strategies is warranted to mitigate reduced NPOESS SESS capabilities