1. Pedro M A Miranda Centro de Geofísica da Universidade de Lisboa Instituto Dom Luiz Modelação Atmosférica e Climática no IDL Emanuel Dutra, João Martins, José Alves, Ricardo Tomé, Miguel Nogueira Pedro Viterbo, Miguel Teixeira, Pedro Soares, Rita Cardoso João Teixeira (NASA/JPL), Gianpaolo Balsamo (ECMWF)

2. Weather forecast VS Climate modelling

3. Is there skill at all forecast ranges? Decadal timescales are the most valuable for decision making… Meehl et al, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2009

4. What is a good model? Hazeleger et al, Bull Amer. Meteo Soc, 2010 El-Niño simulated by EC-Earth (ECMWF+NEMO) Palmer et al, Bull Amer Meteor. Soc, 2008 ECMWF UKMO Mid-latitude blocking West Europe Pacific

5. Seamless prediction Palmer et al, Bull Amer Meteor. Soc, 2008 Where is the weakest link in the climate modelling chain and how to test it? Physics Resolution Numerics

6. The EC-Earth model concept ECMWF development EC-Earth 10+ European countries New earth-system components

7. Snow cover Soil Longwave radiation Shortwave radiation (RS) Sensible heat Precipitation Liquid + solid Sublimation (latent heat) albedo x RS 2% - 47% of the Northern Hemisphere runoff Snow processes in a climate model

8. Improving the representation of snow processes in EC-Earth model Dutra et al, J. Hydrometeorology, 2010

9. New snow-scheme for EC-Earth developed at IDL NEW- ERA40 CTR- ERA40 NEW- CTR Coupled IFS+NEMO simulated winter 2 metre temperature differences: CTR- ERA40(left), NEW-ERA40(middle), NEW-CTR(right). Coupled 40 years run (20 years spin-up) Hazeleger et al, Bull Amer. Meteo Soc, 2010

10. Impact of new snow scheme on large scale hydrology (basin runoff)

11. 11 IPCC 2007: “Cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty” Doubling CO 2  less low clouds in GFDL  4 K global warming Doubling CO 2  more low clouds in NCAR  2 K global warming Stephens (2005)/from B. Soden Clouds in turbulent boundary layer are at core of cloud/climate feedbacks Cloud albedo > sea surface albedo Cloud processes (from Teixeira et al 2010, NASA/JPL)

12. Cloud processes: The relevance of resolution 330km resolution “Earth Simulator” 10km resolution Shapiro et al, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2010

13. Global operational high resolution forecast (ECMWF 2010, 16km) Shapiro et al, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2010

14. How to represent Microscale Cloud processes? Realistic LES simulation (50m) of Precipitating cumuli, RICO experiment Teixeira et al, 2010 No rain Precipitating

15. Amazonian convection Simulated by MesoNH at IDL (Martins et al, IDL)

16. Contributing to a state-of-the-art climate model Climate models need to be thoroughly tested: Historic runs (1850-2010) Decadal forecasts are the way forward? Better physics is always a good idea! Many processes may be improved (snow, clouds, river flow, vegetation, etc.) Those improvements may be easily integrated and tested in weather forecast models Some of those improvements may be developed in very high resolution models (LES)