1. U NIVERSITY OF M INNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. The Future of Fuels for Transportation Presented at the World Future Society's Annual Conference World Future 2007: Fostering Hope and Vision for the 21st Century July 30, 2007, Minneapolis, MN Massoud Amin, CDTL Director/Chair & Professor ECE, Univ. of Minnesota David Keenan, Vice President, Minnesota Futurists Rolf Nordstrom, Executive Director, Great Plains Institute

2. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Background Price of fuel for cars and light trucks is increasing – Increasing demand from developing populations – Declining discoveries of crude oil – Conflicts in oil producing regions US consumer demand exceeds US supply – Reliance on exports – Energy security concern Burning gasoline for transportation creates environmental problems, smog, CO 2, etc.

3. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Background Global light vehicle ( cars and light trucks) production - 55 to 60 million/yr Estimated 500 million light vehicles in use – 78% gasoline – 22% diesel Growth of Ownership

4. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Context: In the U.S., we have: - 2% of the World’s oil reserve; - 8% of World oil production; - 5% of the World population; - we consume 25% of World’s production, and - more than 2/3 of our consumption is imported. Emerging economies increased demand are changing the “balance,” e.g. China, - China has bought excess capacity of Canada, - Almost bought Unocal; major commitments from Mideast. - In 2005 we launched one new submarine, - China launched 14 (albeit lower quality)…

5. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Context: Cities with 10 million people By 2020, more than 30 mega-cities in the now less- developed world. By 2050, nearly 60 such cities. Increased population creates need for more resources. World's electricity supply will need to triple by 2050 to keep up with demand, necessitating nearly 10,000 GW of new generating capacity.

6. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization.

7. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization.

8. U NIVERSITY OF M INNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization.

9. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. U.S. Transportation Demands More Oil Source: Transportation Energy Data Book Edition 20, DOE/ORNL-6959, October 2000, and EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2001, DOE/EIA-0383(2001), December 2000. Highway Carbon Emissions (million metric tons) 1990 2000 2010 2020 325 386 474 541 ActualProjected

10. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Estimates of World Conventional Oil Production & U.S. Natural Gas Production Source: Department of Energy Supply Considerations

11. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2006

12. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Issues facing US consumers What fuel price would influence you to choose a new vehicle type? Europe currently pays about $6/gal due to taxes US is considering increasing gas tax What vehicles will be available? What fueling station infrastructure will be convenient?

13. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Answering Consumer Challenges An Example: Galvin Electricity Initiative Each day, roughly 500,000 Americans spend at least two hours without electricity (cost to our economy $150B/year). – The future looks even worse. Without substantial innovation and investment, rolling blackouts and soaring power bills will become a persistent fact of life in this country. Mission: The Galvin Electricity Initiative is leading a campaign to create a perfect power system. A perfect power system cannot fail the consumer. It is environmentally sound and fuel-efficient. It is robust and resilient; able to withstand natural and weather-related disasters and mitigate the potential damage caused by terrorist attack. The perfect power system provides affordable electricity to all consumers and allows consumers to control their own energy use to the extent they choose. History: The Galvin Electricity Initiative was officially launched in 2005, but its genesis dates back to the massive East Coast blackout of August 2003, which left nearly 50 million people without power and inspired former Motorola chief to take action. Source: http://www.galvinpower.org/http://www.galvinpower.org/

14. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. S&T Assessment, Scan and Map (April 2005-Feb 2006; Galvin Electricity Initiative, Task 3, Phase 1) Objectives: Identify the most significant Science & Technology innovations which would meet energy service needs over the next 10 or 20 years. Determine Science & Technologies areas and concepts which address customer aspirations and hopes: – Technologies that encourage job creation and address the needs of the society; – An energy system so robust and resilient that it will not fail; – A totally reliable, secure communication system that will not fail. Source: Galvin Electricity Initiative http://www.galvinpower.org/http://www.galvinpower.org/

15. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Societal/Human Needs→ Technology → System What will be its needs for systems consuming energy (functionally)? What existing and emerging technologies can meet those needs? How will society evolve? What power system implications do those solutions imply? Are there entirely new pivotal technologies which could be potentially available? Are there applications of pivotal science and technology outside energy that may apply? Killer Ap? Will those influence society?

16. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. How do we figure out what may work? Consumer Needs Technology Potential Technology Scan Identify societal attributes How may society’s technology needs evolve (scenario)? What will be the technology needs of those societies? Identify dominant needs Determine the potential of known (existing and emerging) technologies Determine where clusters of applications exist Scan the technology horizon broadly for innovation possibilities Nodes of Opportunity

17. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Examples of Technology strengths of the industry today Information Science Physical Science leading strong capable 1414 Industry Application Status Industry’s Technology ™ PowerZone™ Examples of Technology strengths of the industry today include: 1.Power Electronics 2.Adv. Electric motors 3.Wind generation 4.Nuclear Power 5.Solar power 6.Systems integration 7.Real-time systems control 8.Personal storage devices 9.Power conditioning 10.Efficient illumination 11.Emission control 12.Turbine generation 13.Adv. Materials technology 14.Security technology 3 2 1 6 4 7 5 9 8 12 10 1313 1 Bio- and Life Sciences

18. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Expanding the Power Zone Physical Biological Info A. Distributed control B. Electronic power commerce C. Distributed generation/storage D. Integrated common infrastructure E. Integrated/Embedded PV A B C D E F Wireless backup G Granular Semi-autonomous Architecture H Fractal Grid Lego Model I Lego Model J Plug and play appliances F G J H I Technology Map for the Granular Semi-Autonomous Architecture

19. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Expanding and Transforming the Power Zone Information Science Physical Science Bio./Life Science 1 7 2 5 6 3 8 4 Bench- marking Existing Power Zone Extended Power Zone Technology Map for Bio-fuel Systems, Distributed Gen and Storage systems integrated with Advanced Information Systems for Network Management

20. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. R& D Strategies and Examples of Technology areas Develop into Products Identify Real Applications to Pull Technology High Potential -- Elaborate, Expand, Drive Investment Alliances, Government, University Not strategic - evaluate as separate opportunity Sustain and Grow- Industry and other resources

21. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Future Consumer Needs Transportation Relieve Congestion Reduce Energy Use Revitalize Cities Serve Diverse Communities Source: Galvin Electricity Initiative

22. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Big 4 issues automakers face in meeting those needs 1. Energy diversity 2. Climate change 3. Population and Congestion 4. Air quality

23. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Transportation Fuel Options that Meet These Challenges are Limited 1. Electricity (plugging into the grid): Requires “greening the grid” and solving storage/battery issues 2. Liquids from coal: Without CCS*, this would be worse than gasoline from a climate standpoint 3. Biofuels: UCS study on biofuels suggested that they could perhaps meet 30 to 50% of U.S. transportation fuel needs. We’ll still need that other 50%! 4. Hydrogen: Made from renewable and low-carbon sources * CCS: Carbon Capture and Sequestration

24. Co-Evolution of Vehicles & Fuels Conventional ICE vehicles “ICE” = Internal Combustion Engine Flex-fuel ICE vehicles (E-85 & gasoline) Hybrid-ICE vehicles Cleaner diesel ICE vehicles Plug-in hybrid ICE flex-fuel vehicles Battery can be recharged by the electric grid, extending the vehicle’s electric-only range. Hybrid Fuel Cell vehicles Hybrid ICE & Fuel Cell Vehicles AND/OR Plug-in Hybrid ICE & Fuel Cell vehicles www.gpisd.net Gasoline Diesel Gasoline & Diesel (176,000 gas stations) Corn Ethanol (E85) (100s of U.S. stations) Soy Biodiesel (100s of U.S. stations) Natural Gas (1,600 stations in U.S.) Hydrogen (~ 100 stations worldwide) Gasoline & Diesel Hydrogen Grid Electricity Biofuels from cellulose & other renewable sources Fuels from coal w/CO 2 capture & sequestration Low- no-CO 2 Hydrogen Low- no-CO 2 Grid Electricity Biofuels from cellulose & other renewable sources Fuels from coal w/CO 2 capture & sequestration VEHICLES evolving toward hybrids = less oil, air pollution and greenhouse gases We are here. (97% reliant on OIL) Little/no OIL in transportation by 2050 FUELS evolving toward domestic, low- no- CO 2 options 1901 1993-1997-2009 2010 2020 & beyond Date of 1 st mass vehicle introduction 1) Few alternatives to gasoline 2) Must move along evolutionary path ASAP

25. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. One Transition Strategy: GEM Flexibly Fuel Vehicles (FFV) One Tank To Hold Them All G: Gasoline E: Ethanol M: Methanol With an FFV, you choose each day which to buy At $100-200/car, a more open competition, level playing field, better unleash the power of the free market 40% of new cars in Brazil GE flexible already

26. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Vehicle & Fuel Evolution Already Underway Both GM and Toyota pursuing: – Hybrid ICEs – Plug-in ICEs – Plug-in hydrogen fuel cell electrics. Honda FCX Ford Edge Chevy Volt

27. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Chevy Volt as example of vehicle trends Fuel cell is simply used as a range-extender (not as a replacement for the ICE). The fuel cell simply keeps the battery charged Easier to put electric infrastructure in place than H2 infrastructure.

28. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Do any hydrogen vehicles exist today? Every major automaker has prototypes 400-500 vehicles on the road 38 Hybrid Priuses have been converted to run on hydrogen, most operating in 5 cities in LA basin At least 10 types of H2 ICE vehicles deployed or being developed

29. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. When might you buy a fuel cell vehicle? Automakers racing to be first; GM says by 2011 Both Honda and BMW have announced plans to go to production BEFORE 2010 Others think longer or never First vehicles are fleets GM’s Sequel, 300 mile range GM putting 100 of these on the road in 2007

30. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. GM Targets for Deployment 2007 to 2010: 100 vehicles (10 stations) 2011 to 2013: 1000 vehicles (100 stations) 2014 to 2016: 10,000 vehicles (250 stations) Commercial deployment in mass market Chevy “Volt” plug-in hybrid

31. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. 1 st fuel cell family has completed first year Jon and Sandy Spallino and daughters, Redondo Beach, California Honda FCX4

32. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Are there any hydrogen stations today? >100 stations worldwide California has 23 stations; 15 more underway; 100 planned by 2010 1 st public station in Washington DC 170 new stations planned (VT, OH, CA, DC, FL, NV, NY, etc.) CA, FL, NY, Canada, Japan and Norway have “H 2 highway” projects H2 Highway in BC

33. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. U.S. Goal: Fuel cell vehicles in the showroom and hydrogen at filling stations by 2020 How Soon?

34. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Market Transformation of Electric Drive Vehicles Source: EPRI

35. U NIVERSITY OF M INNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. 1) Electricity

36. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Tomorrow’s Grid Smart – with sensors Flexible and Resilient – an intelligent network with real- time monitoring and control Self Healing – capable of predicting or immediately containing outages with adaptive islanding and fast isolation or sectionalizing Established Standards – enabling “plug and play” distributed resources and digital appliances and devices

37. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Role of Vehicles and Fuel Cells in the ‘Smart Grid’ Distributed Energy Resources (DER) – Power quality and reliability – Backup – Load leveling – when loads and prices are high DER potentially 25% U.S. electricity in 2020 ‘Plug and Play’ capability – Grid design for multiple power flows – Standards – Equipment ‘signatures’ and requirements ‘Smart Vehicles’ from interconnected power systems and communications

38. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Value Proposition Energy security as electricity provides fuel substitute for petroleum Efficiency improvements result in significant fuel mileage increases and emissions reduction Faster fuel cell market penetration due to lower cost of fuel cell when linked to an energy storage system Electric drive systems in the full range of auto, truck, and non- road product offerings A potential future as mobile distributed resources link to electricity grid A cleaner environment as Electric Drive market share grows Load leveling Source: EPRI

39. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Full Fuel Cycle Efficiency Comparison 0.31–0.50 0.29–0.47 2116 Btu/mile 1631 – 2185 miles Per Barrel Conventional 1231 miles Per Barrel 4115 Btu/mile0.84 Plug-in Hybrid 1.0

40. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Hybrid Vehicle Efficiency 15-20%90-95% 95% 85-95% 85-90% Gas tank Engine Transmission Driveline Motor Battery Gasoline: 13-18% Efficient Electric: 62-77% Efficient

41. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Well-to-Wheels Energy Use— Midsize Sedan

42. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Petroleum Reduction Up to 85% reduction in gasoline use and trips to gas station (HEV60).

43. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. “Electrifying America’s Transportation: A Value Proposition for Electric Drive Vehicles” Net Economic Benefits Billion $/year (2002 $) Oil Use- 4 M bbl/day GDP Impact+ $ 38 B/year Environmental+ $ 9 B/year Labor+ 440,000 Jobs/yr Assumes by 2025 -Half of all cars are Hybrids -Half of those are plug-in Hybrids Based on DOE – EIA projections for energy use A study by Professor James A. Weinbrake, James Madison University, 2002 Sponsored by EPRI’s Technology Roadmap Project

44. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) Comparison Plug-in HEVs: – reduce emissions, energy use, CO 2, and petroleum consumption more than power assist HEVs – yield greater benefits as range increases All HEVs can be expected to cost more than CVs Even at significantly higher capital costs, plug-in HEVs can succeed in the market

45. U NIVERSITY OF M INNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. 2) Bioenergy Biomass as transport fuel and/or grid power

46. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Bioenergy Today

47. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. USES Fuels: Ethanol Renewable Diesel Hydrogen Power: Electricity Heat Chemicals Plastics Solvents Chemical Intermediates Phenolics Adhesives Furfural Fatty acids Acetic Acid Carbon black Paints Dyes, Pigments, and Inks Detergents Etc. Food and Feed Bio-gas Synthesis Gas Sugars and Lignin Bio-Oil Carbon-Rich Chains Plant Products Hydrolysis Acids, enzymes Gasification High heat, low oxygen Digestion Bacteria Pyrolysis Catalysis, heat, pressure Extraction Mechanical, chemical Separation Mechanical, chemical Feedstock production, collection, handling & preparation Biorefinery: Feedstock to any Product

48. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Biomass Resources: Many regional options Evolution from: Corn ethanol Biodiesel Toward: Cellulosic ethanol: - Ag. residues, wood waste, native grass.

49. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Ethanol and E85 Ethanol is a biofuel alternative to gasoline – Contains 35% oxygen, burns cleaner than gasoline – Highly biodegradable, less problems from leaks E10 is 10% ethanol and 90% unleaded gasoline – Used in 46% of US, especially in winter to cut smog – Used to replace MTBE as octane booster E85 is 85% ethanol and 15% unleaded gasoline – Pricing attractive vs. unleaded gas Land and energy requirements limit corn ethanol to a transition fuel

50. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Other Options for Ethanol Production 2004 global production 10 billion gallons 38% produced in Brazil using 4.5% of crop land Mass produced by fermentation of starch or sugar Crop yieldsgallons/acre – Corn 370 – Sugar Cane662 – Sugar Beet714 – Poplar hybrid 1000 (UM Duluth) – Switchgrass 1150 – Miscanthus 1500 Can be produced from algae – (UM Twin Cities)

51. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Why Evolve to Cellulosic Ethanol?

52. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Biodiesel Biodiesel is a diesel equivalent fuel derived from a biological source such as vegetable oil Biodegradable, non-toxic, produces 60% less CO 2 emissions than petroleum based diesel Soybean and rapeseed oil are used for 90% of fuel Waste vegetable oil works Global production of vegetable oil and animal fat are not yet sufficient to replace fossil fuel use. Corn 18 gal/acre Soybean 48 gal/acre Rapeseed 127 gal/acre

53. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. How many miles/acre can we achieve? Cellulosic ethanol has “good” potential for transportation fuel supply over the next 20-30 years

54. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. BioEnergy—S&T Challenges Feedstock production and collection – Plant growth and response to stress (and on marginal lands); – Higher productivity at lower input (water, fertilizer, etc.) – Production of certain components and/or new components – Functional genomics; biochemistry; physiology; cellular control mechanisms; respiration; photosynthesis, metabolism, nutrient use, disease response Biochemical pathways – Biocatalysis: enzyme function and regulation; enzyme engineering; catalyst reaction rates and specificity Thermochemical pathways – Product-selective thermal cracking of biomass; CFD modeling Bioproducts – New and novel monomers and polymers; – Biomass composites; adhesion/surface science Combustion – NOx chemistry; CFD modeling

55. U NIVERSITY OF M INNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. 3) Wind and Solar for electricity and hydrogen production

56. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Wind and Solar Resources Potential is large, particularly in the Western U.S.

57. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Solar Energy Price of electricity from grid-connected PV systems are ~20¢/kWh. (Down from ~$2.00/kWh in 1980) Nine parabolic trough plants with a total rated capacity of 354 MW have operated since 1985, with demonstrated system costs of 12 to 14¢/kWh.

58. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. PV Cost, Cents/kWh MWs Shipped PV Costs and Shipments Source for market data: Paul Maycock, PV News, Volume 24, No. 2 February 2005

59. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Example: Solar This solar powered water electrolysis hydrogen production and fueling station at Honda R&D Americas, Inc., Los Angeles Center in Torrance, California, is an example of PV-based hydrogen production for vehicle use (courtesy of Honda R&D Co., Ltd.).

60. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Solar Energy—S&T Challenges Photovoltaics: – Improve understanding of materials/growth/characterization and devices, esp. of CIGS, CdTe and Multi-junction thin films — interface chemistry, physics, defects, etc. – Innovative encapsulants – Transparent conducting oxides – Improved Computational methods – Quantum Dot cells, intermediate-band cells Concentrating Solar Power: – Stable, high temperature heat transfer and thermal storage materials, with low vapor pressure, low freezing points – Stable, high temperature, high performance selective surfaces – High performance reflectors Fuels: – High-temperature thermochemical cycles for CSP; Improved catalysts – PhotoElectrochemical redox couples with better band-edge matching – Electrolysis – PhotoBiological Low Temperature Solar Thermal: – New polymers that can withstand UV, hi/lo temperatures, and high pressures. Cross-cutting Areas: – Power electronics — wide-band gap materials; Reliable capacitors – Energy Storage

61. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. UNIDO-ICHET UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR HYDROGEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES www.unido-ichet.org/ichet.org/ichet.php

62. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Thermal Energy Contents of Various Fuels Bottom-Line: On a per pound basis, hydrogen contains about 3 times more energy than any fossil fuel; however, with its low mass density, it has high storage costs based on today’s technology.

63. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Methods to Generate Hydrogen Electrolysis Cracking natural gas– short-term solution Nuclear Microbes Reforming biomass/waste Wind – renewable Solar – renewable

64. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Challenges for Hydrogen Storage – Containers outweigh content DOE goal is hydrogen 6% by weight (demo of 8% underway) Distribution – Need for both retrofit of existing (~ 38-50%) gas pipelines and construction of new ones – Truck transport is limited to a few hundred miles.

65. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Long-Term Clean Alternatives to Carrying H 2 in Your Car Tank Hydrogen Carriers – proven tested fuels that easily release hydrogen for use on-board a car – Methanol, our best hope (next slide) – Ammonia & other carbon-free fuels (but chicken&egg problem again) Electric Cars – Cleanest, most efficient, but needs R&D; can’t yet beat C; new batteries in lab exciting, but not yet… PLUG-IN HYBRIDS COULD GET US THERE. Thermal Batteries (Long-term option)

66. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. 7/6/201666 …The Future is Bright…

67. U NIVERSITY OF M INNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Change

68. U NIVERSITY OF M INNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Rule of three

69. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Innovation and Progress... “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” George Bernard ShawGeorge Bernard Shaw (1856 - 1950)

70. U NIVERSITY OF M INNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Transportation Policy

71. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Shifting Opinions: Raise Gas Tax Future = 2020 Federal gas tax =18.4cents/gal. State gas taxes – Low is Alaska at 8 cents/gal. – MN, Wash DC are 20 cents/gal. – High is Wisconsin at 32.1 cents/gal.

72. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Shifting Opinions: Hybrid Vehicles Future = 2020

73. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Aggregate Stakeholder Perceptions

74. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Hybrid Vehicles Best State Incentives: – Utah / Colorado: Up to $4,713 in tax credits Allow Single-Person Hybrid to use HOV lanes – Vs Minnesota: No Incentives Best Use for Mass Transit – N.Y. Upgrading Bus fleet to Hybrid Diesel-Electric Use 1/3 less fuel than conventional busses Reduced emissions: : 90 percent less particulate matter, 40 percent fewer oxides of nitrogen, and 30 percent fewer greenhouse gases. Run quieter, reducing noise pollution – vs. Minnesota: No Plans for Hybrid Mass Transit and 2004 Transportation Plan focuses on Buses as the centerpiece of Metro Region Mass transit for the next 25 years (through 2030).

75. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Key Points Energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) can be cost-effective alternatives to adding new capacity Programmatic approaches to EE and DR have been successful, but have only “scratched-the- surface” of what’s possible Huge opportunity to utilize technology, innovation, and markets to drive EE, DR, and overall electricity utilization

76. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. My Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Convenient Re-charging… Anytime and Anywhere – Vehicle meter “handshakes” with network-connected “socket” to identify vehicle and billing information – Re-charges with kWh measured by vehicle meter – Electronic billing transaction debits vehicle owner’s account and credits “socket” owner’s account Distributed Energy Storage – Sell stored battery energy to the grid – Utilize stored battery energy for short-term back-up power Distributed Generation – Utilize internal combustion engine for longer-term backup power

77. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Electric Vehicle Inductive Charger

78. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. My Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Convenient Re-charging… Anytime and Anywhere – Vehicle meter “handshakes” with network-connected “socket” to identify vehicle and billing information – Re-charges with kWh measured by vehicle meter – Electronic billing transaction debits vehicle owner’s account and credits “socket” owner’s account Distributed Energy Storage – Sell stored battery energy to the grid – Utilize stored battery energy for short-term back-up power Distributed Generation – Utilize internal combustion engine for longer-term backup power Consumers will demand these conveniences …will the Electricity Efficiency Infrastructure be ready?

79. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization.

80. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Challenge & Opportunity Three Primary Motivations Energy Security:Moderate consumption of petroleum-based transportation fuels Global Warming: Reduce CO2 emissions Environment: Attain air quality targets in critical areas. Reduce well-to-wheels criteria emissions Transportation Sustainability – Four Options (for the Vehicle) Energy efficiency improvements Biofuels Electricity (Renewable or near-zero emitting) Hydrogen (Also renewable or near-zero emitting)

81. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. We have a bright future if we challenge the best minds and marshal their talents… Albert Einstein once said that “compounded interest is the most powerful force in the universe”: – 250 year reserves of coal will mean 40 years at 2% growth rate per year. Renewable resources: – Solar- Wind-Geothermal – Ocean/Wave energy-- Waste to energy – Agricultural, incl. soy/corn, sugar (e.g., Brazil) Biodiessel, cellulosic, ethanol, methanol, biomass – Hydrogen from renewables will it require more energy to produce? Need new technologies analogous to putting the “man on the moon,” with the urgency of the Manhattan Project, Broad range of R&D including end-use and system efficiency, What will the overall, integrated system/infrastructure look like?

82. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. people planet prosperity

83. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization.

84. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Discussion and the Road Ahead: What are the key energy and security pivotal technologies? – What is your vision for the future– what will it be like or how will it perform in 2020? – What are the energy innovation gaps to achieve your vision? – What pivotal technologies and policies are needed to address these? – If you are given $10B to invest, 15-year time horizon, with no more than 10% in any given option, what pivotal energy technologies do you choose and why?

85. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2006 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Thank you May others benefit from your lead.

86. U NIVERSITY OF M INNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Contact Information Massoud Amin:amin@umn.edu David Keenan:smalltechnology@gmail.com Rolf Nordstrom: rnordstrom@gpisd.net

87. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Alternative Selection: Raise Gas Tax Good Policy Good Politics Do Something Accomplish Something Costs Benefits Raise Gas Tax YesNo Yes No YesNo Yes No Raise Gas Tax LowHigh Low Raise Gas Tax

88. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Alternative Selection: Incentives for Hybrid Vehicles Good Policy Good Politics Do Something Accomplish Something Costs Benefits Hybrid Incentives YesNo Yes No YesNo Yes No Hybrid Incentives LowHigh Low Hybrid Incentives

89. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Alternative Selection: Light Rail Expansion Good Policy Do Something Good Politics Accomplish Something Costs Benefits Light Rail Expansion YesNo Yes No YesNo Yes No Light Rail Expansion LowHigh Low Light Rail Expansion

90. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization.

91. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization.

92. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization.

93. UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Copyright © 2007 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization. Baldwin’s Time Constants Political consensus building ~ 3-20+ years Technical R&D ~10+ Production model ~ 4+ Financial~ 2++ Market penetration ~10++ Capital stock turnover – Cars~ 15 – Appliances~ 10-20 – Industrial Equipment~ 10-30/40+ – Power plants~ 40+ – Buildings ~ 80 – Urban form~100’s Lifetime of Greenhouse Gases~100’s-1000’s Reversal of Land Use Change~100’s Reversal of ExtinctionsNever