1. The Response of Mangrove Populations to Global Climate Change in a Human Altered Landscape Eric Milbrandt, Ph.D. Marine Laboratory, Sanibel-Captiva Conservation Foundation 10 October 2007, IAMSLIC

2. Questions What services do mangrove wetlands provide? Are populations more or less sensitive to disturbance in a human-altered landscape? How do short term responses differ from long term responses ? Is local adaptation producing traits that have a higher or lower probability of success? What do marine laboratories and coastal communities have to plan for human-altered landscapes?

3. Ecosystem Services Coastal flood protection Wetland filtration Nesting habitat for birds Protection for juvenile fish from their predators Host for caterpillars, moths and butterflys Carbon sink to buffer against greenhouse gases (CO 2 )

4. The “Human Element” Frequency of powerful, named storms in the tropics expected to increase Southwest Florida protected mangrove shorelines from development in the early 1970s, however road construction and mosquito control have degraded wetland health –Tidally restricted areas –Over pruning and illegal trimming –Die-off zones –Pesticide application

5. Responses to human alteration Mangrove populations were evaluated pre- and post hurricane A large die-off area was used to mimic sea level rise, seedling adaptation was determined

6. Hurricane Disturbance Paired study plots chosen to represent mangroves altered by human activity and those that were not Gradient of wind-induced disturbance to study plots Path of Hurricane Charley Friday, August 13, 2004 Green circles are paired study plots (n = 27) in human altered and pristine wetlands on Sanibel Island

7. Catastrophic Wind Disturbance

8. Size Determines Mortality

9. Reproduction ** 2004 2005 Proffitt, Travis, Milbrandt. 2006. Estuaries and Coasts

10. Human altered landscapes Milbrandt, Boswell, Sokoloff, Bortone, 2006, Impact and response of southwest Florida mangrove forests to the 2004 Hurricane season. Estuaries and Coasts. Complete canopy losses meant that seedlings were no longer limited by competition for light

11. Summary Human altered landscapes respond differently to hurricanes –Fewer seedlings –Less productive –Lower recruitment Florida Gulf Coast University M.S. student continues to pursue these patterns

12. Long-term disturbances Global climate change and associated sea level rise have led to dire predictions about Florida’s west coast How will mangrove wetlands respond?

13. What can present conditions tell us about sea level rise? There are many examples of mangrove wetlands that have experienced chronic, long term exposure to high water levels because of human activity, specifically due to poor drainage Caused by road construction, mosquito impoundments

14. Road bed Hydrology A road bed (A) restricted tidal flushing (top panel B) compared to unrestricted shoreline (bottom panel B) AB

16. Saltwort or mangroves? Saltwort has the competitive advantage

17. Research to Support Restoration Mangrove wetlands can be re-planted to achieve maximum benefit to wildlife

18. “Common Garden” Mangroves from Charlotte Harbor and Indian River Lagoon planted together on both coasts to observe local adaptation

19. Local adaptation in mangroves Albino trait observed in offspring; caused by a mutation in 220 chl a genes Mutation rates in Tampa Bay

20. Community Restoration Community based restoration in light of human alterations and in anticipation of global climate changes can be successful in protecting mangroves

21. Public Awareness; real time conditions SCCF established an in situ coastal observing network, RECON (http://recon.sccf.org)

22. SCCF and IAMSLIC SCCF Marine Laboratory established in 2002 Many of the current resource needs (journals books) provided electronically (FGCU) and through resource sharing (IAMSLIC) Coastal observing systems are on the horizon, SCCF is providing one of the first streams of real-time water quality data, how can we share archived data? Is investment in a resource specialist to handle library and RECON development worthwhile?

23. IAMSLIC Lending