1. Risk Elements Marc Kaducak Project X Machine Advisory Committee March 18-19, 2013

2. Project Analogy 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak2 Thrill Rides: 1.Get in line. Have patience. 2.Start with a long, slow climb. Peak fear and anticipation. 3.Ups, downs, twists, turns, sometimes fully upside down. Full of surprises unless you’ve ridden before. 4.Completion. Exhilaration and relief followed by either crippling dizziness or desire to ride again. This project is literally a roller coaster

3. Status and Approach Project X has recently been asked to document an R&D plan based on a FY18 CD-3 (full construction authorization). We understand the primary goals and continue to refine the details of schedule and priority based on funding and resources. Substantial R&D has been done to date: –Major advances and infrastructure under the SRF R&D program. –Construction of PXIE (integrated front end system test) has begun. Further R&D is targeted to: –Raise level of technical readiness –Lower cost and schedule uncertainty 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak3

4. Types of Risk 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak4 Estimate Uncertainty Technology Readiness Most other risks not easily addressed by R&D

5. Technology Readiness 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak5 NASA Scale DoD Scale

6. Technology Readiness (DOE G 413.3-4A*) 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak6 * NOTE: This DOE guide is largely based on Environmental Management Projects GOAL

7. Technology Readiness and Cost Sensitivity – Status Today 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak 7 Linac Component LEBTRFQMEBT β=0.11 HWR β=0.22 SSR1 β=0.51 SSR2 β=0.61 LB650 β=0.9 HB650 β=1.0 1300 Technology Readiness 653443337 Cost (% of total) 1%5% (Cryomodules only) 16% (CMs only) 10% (CMs only) RT CW Pulsed 162.5 MHz 0.03-11 MeV 325 MHz 10-177 MeV 650 MHz 0.18-3 GeV 1.3 GHz 3-8 GeV Subsystem CW RF Pulsed RF CW Cryo Pulsed Cryo Beam Transport CW Civil Pulsed Civil MI/RR Upgrade Technical Readiness 88787887 Cost (% of total) 8%4%11%3% 14%9%6% PXIE SRF R&D Focus of R&D, All apply to Stage 1 Not shown: Mgmt, Acc. Phys., Inst. Ctrls, Safety

8. Warm Front End - Challenges and Goals ItemStatusTechnical Challenges RFQDesign Complete, fab underway. Leverage SNS experience of LBNL CW operation: thermal management Fabrication (tests): Tools and fixtures, brazing and fabrication techniques MEBTPrototype kicker, ¼ size absorber to be bench tested this year. Kicker performance, 21 kW absorber, vacuum in proximity to SRF, effective extinction, emittance growth 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak8 Warm FE Overall Goals: –Demonstrate readiness of the following: RFQ CW Operation Chopper bunch-by-bunch performance, extinction levels Vacuum, particle migration levels between MEBT and HWR :

9. Front End Test - PXIE 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak9 CW H- source delivering 5 mA at 30 keV LEBT with beam pre-chopping CW RFQ operating at 162.5 MHz and delivering 5 mA at 2.1 MeV MEBT with integrated wide-band chopper and beam absorbers capable of generating arbitrary bunch patterns at 162.5 MHz, and disposing of 4 mA average beam current Low beta superconducting cryomodules: 1 mA to ~25 MeV Beam dump capable of accommodating 2 mA at 25 MeV (50 kW) for extended periods. Associated beam diagnostics, utilities and shielding RFQMEBT HWRSSR1 LEBT ~ 40 m long HEBT

10. PXIE Contribution to PX Technical Readiness CW RFQ Performance and Reliability Bunch-by-bunch Chopper Performance (kicker and absorber) MEBT/HWR interface (vacuum, differential pumping, particle migration to HWR) High-current beam acceleration thru HWR and SSR1 –Loss of RFQ tails in SC linac –Halo generation by beam space charge Extinction for the removed bunches better than –10 -4 – specified by the PXIE FRS and determined by multi-experiment operation –<10 -9 – as desired by  -to-e experiment (no formal specification) Obtain experience in design and operation of SC proton linac –SSR1 cryomodule will be designed and built by Fermilab, HWR by Argonne System Integration –Interfaces –Machine Protection –LLRF –Controls –Instrumentation –Cryogenics –Team development 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak10

11. SRF Challenges and Goals SRF challenges: –Need six different cavities optimized for changing velocity (  ) of Protons –Four different frequencies (162.5, 325, 650, 1300 MHz) –Five of these cavities are completely new for Project X (vs 2 for SNS, 1 for CEBAF) –Requires development of seven different styles of cryomodules SRF Overall Goals: –Develop SRF cavities and cryomodules for Project X Develop the cold part of PXIE (to mitigate Project technical risks) Fabricate and test first articles of cavities and cryomodules that are needed in large numbers to mitigate large Project cost/schedule risk Validate performance of key parameters such as Q 0 and gradient –Develop related SRF infrastructure and technology To execute the PX R&D program and later the project –U.S. Industrialization 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak11

12. SRF Deliverables TypeDeliverablePurpose HWRCryomodulePXIE SSR1CryomodulePXIE SSR2Dressed cavity with coupler, tuner Testing LB650Three(3) dressed cavities Vertical, horizontal testing demonstrating Q 0 of 2 x 10 10 or larger HB650CryomoduleTesting with cryogenics and RF demonstrating required RF control, FE, Q 0 of 2 x 10 10 or larger in the CM with reasonable heat loads, and microphonic control on the cryomodule test stand 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak12

13. Status of Critical Items - SRF 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak13 1 1 1 3 8111 1 1 8 8 1 1

14. SRF R&D Contribution to PX Technical Readiness SCRF Design Verification, Fabrication, Installation, and Operation at NML, CMTF 1.Superfluid refrigeration systems and leak checks 2.Particle free assembly in field 3.Sub atmospheric pressure control 4.High power RF systems 5.LLRF control of multiple cavities 6.Tuner specification and design verification (moving parts) 7.Instrumentation development 8.Lorentz force and microphonics compensation 9.Beam Loading 10.Dark current, field emission 11.Halo measurement and formation Staff Development Assembly and Testing Infrastructure 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak14

15. SRF R&D Contribution to PX Cost Risk Reduction End-to-end cryomodule fabrication and testing 1.Verify assumptions about cavity yields 2.Develop cavity fabrication vendors enabling competitive bidding 3.Define and exercise production and testing processes and equipment, thereby verifying capacity and rate 4.Verify the Q 0 and heat loads of CW cavities, which dominate the Project X cryogenic heat load and therefore the cryoplant cost 5.Exercise the collaboration with India to enable substantial in-kind contributions Potential opportunities to exploit: 1.Annealing half cells prior to welding – no 800°C bake after EP 2.Cavity N 2 treatment – potential factor of 2 increase in Q 3.Barrel polishing – potential elimination of chemical processing 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak15

16. Other R&D and Studies Development of target system capable of accommodating beam power in the range of 1- 2.5 MW. Study remote handling systems and target lifetimes. International effort with LBNE and others (RaDIATE – Radiation Damage In Accelerator Target Environments). Development of an H- injection system capable of accepting extended beam pulses from the Project X linacs, for injection into the Booster or Recycler (see I. Kourbanis and D. Johnson talks) 1) H- Injection system in Recycler. R&D going on especially with rotating foils and new foil materials. Follow the progress with laser stripping in SNS 2) New 53 MHz RF system in both MI and RR. Have finalized a cavity design have built a mock up cavity working towards a prototype. 3) Second harmonic RF for both MI and RR. Have a preliminary cavity design based on the new 53 MHz cavity. 4) Gamma-t jump system for transition crossing in MI. Have a design and have identify places for the quad installation in MI. 5) e-cloud mitigation. Continuing the e-cloud studies/measurements in MI. Based on our coating experience we are going to estimate the amount of effort needed to in situ coat the MI pipe with TiN. 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak16

17. Schedule for Critical Technology Items (TRL<6) 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak17 Also addresses risk for SSR2 Also addresses risk for LB650

18. Summary Technical risks for accelerator components will be retired primarily through demonstration in PXIE and SRF testing (more details in tomorrow’s talks). R&D will also help refine and validate cost and schedule estimates. List of R&D deliverables and corresponding resource requirements has been submitted to DOE. 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak18

19. Backup 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak19

20. R&D Deliverables and Milestones 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak20

21. Risk Management Timeline 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak21 We are here as a project But we are overachievers

22. MEBT SRF Map for Project X HWR SSR1SSR2  =0.6  =0.9 2.1-177 MeV 1.3GHz ILC 3-8 GeV 0.177-3 GeV RFQ H - LEBT RT (~15m) Pulsed CW * 5 warm and 5 SC doublets. ** All doublets and correctors are warm 0-2.1 MeV Technical Risk (PXIE) Project Cost Risk Non-PXIE = 451 cavities/ 62 cryomodules 22

23. Risk Criteria 2013 XMAC Meeting, Marc Kaducak23 Probability Impact