1. Risks to Global Outlook Inter American Development Bank Meeting October 19, 2006 Desmond Lachman American Enterprise Institute

3. U.S. Household Savings and Debt Service Payments % of disposable personal income

4. US Current Account Balance and Real Effective Exchange Rate Sources: Haver Analytics; International Financial Statistics; Lane and Milesi-Ferreti (2006); and Fund staff estimates.

5. Financing of US Current Account Deficit Sources: Haver Analytics; International Financial Statistics; Lane and Milesi-Ferreti (2006); and Fund staff estimates.

6. China Current Account Balance as a Percent of GDP, 1994-2006F

7. Relative Unit Labor Costs in Europe Italy, France and Germany Unit Labor Cost trends Source: OECD, last observation Q2 2006 Italy +22% since 2000 Germany -5% since 2000 France +11% since 2000