2 National Income Account and BOP Y = C + I + G + CAY = GDPC = consumptionG = government spendingCA = current account balanceThis is called National Income Identity
3 Current Account CA = X – M = net export of goods and services X = export; M = importStrictly speaking CA = X – M +UT but, for a while, we ignore UT = unilateral transferIn a closed economy, we do not have CA. (because X = M = 0)
4 National Income Account Consumption= spending by households, including consumer spending on durable goodsInvestment= Business sector’s adding to the physical stock of capital, including inventories. (individual household’s purchases of stocks, bonds or real estates are not included)Government purchases= spending by federal, state, or local governments
5 National Income Account 1999C 67.6% $6.3 trillionI % $1.6G 17.6% $1.6CA -2.7% -$0.25
6 Current account balance (Domestic spending on goods and services produced domestically)= C + I + G – M(Foreign spending on goods and services produced domestically)= X
7 Current account balance (cont’d) CA = X – MWhen X > M or CA > 0, we say current account surplus.When X < M or CA < 0, we say current account deficit.CA = Y – (C + I + G) = Y – Awhere A = domestic absorption
8 Current account balance (cont’d) A country with current account deficit is buying more from foreigners than it sells to themIt has to increase net foreign debts.CA = net foreign wealthUS has been a net debtor since 1985.In 1998, debt = $5.5 trillion
9 Saving and Investment Let S = national saving = Y – C – G. Then S = I + CA(In a closed economy S = I)whereI = domestic investment = capital stock accumulationCA = foreign wealth acquisition = net foreign investmentAn open economy can increase investment by borrowing abroad.
10 Saving S = SP + SG where SP = Yd – C = Y – T – C SG = T – G SP = private saving; SG = government saving;Yd = disposable income; T = net tax.Then SP = (C + I + G + CA) – T – C= I + CA + (G - T)where G – T = government budget deficit.So CA = SP – I – (G – T)A large gov’t budget deficit leads to a large current account deficit.
11 Balance of Payment Accounts Double-entry bookkeepingeach entry is recorded twice.A debit entry a payment to foreignersA credit entry a receipt from foreigners
12 Current Account (CA) the record of commodity and services transaction A. Exports (credit)B. Imports (debit)1. Merchandise: commodity transaction2. Services: travel, tourism, royalties, transportation costs, insurance premiums.3. IncomeIncome receipts on US assets abroad (credit)Income payments on foreign assets in US (debit)Direct investment receipts and paymentsInterest, dividends.
13 Current Account (cont’d) C. Unilateral Transfers (debit)US foreign aid, gifts, retirement pensions, interest payments to foreigners on their US gov’t debt, workers’ remittances.CA > 0: current account surplus the country is a net lender to the rest of worldCA < 0: current account deficit the country is a net borrower from the rest of world
14 Capital Account (KA) the record of financial assets transaction A. US assets abroad1. US official reserve assets (Gold, SDR, reserve in IMF, foreign currencies)2. US gov’t assets3. US private assets (direct investment, foreign securities)B. Foreign assets in US1. Foreign official assets in US (US gov’t securities, …)2. Other foreign assets in US (direct investment, US treasury securities)
15 Example (a)An American buys a share of German stock, paying by writing a $10,000 check on his account with a Swiss Bank.Debit: US asset held abroad $10,000Credit: US asset held abroad $10,000.For GermanyCredit: Foreign asset held in GermanyDebit: German asset held abroad
16 Example (b)An American buys a share of German stock, paying the seller with a $10,000 check on an American bank.Debit: US asset held abroad $10,000Credit: Foreign asset held in US $10,000
17 Example (c)The French government carries out an official foreign exchange intervention in which it uses dollars held in an American bank to buy French currency from its citizens.Debit: Foreign asset held in US $1 millionCredit: Foreign asset held in US $1 million(US official reserve asset)
18 Example (d)A tourist from Detroit buys a meal at an expensive restaurant in Lyons, France, paying with a VISA credit card. VISA uses a checking account in France to make payments.Debit: Import, Services $300Credit: US assets held abroad $300
19 Example (e)A California winegrower contributes a case of his best cabernet sauvignon for a London wine tasting.No market transaction!
20 Statistical Discrepancy Theoretically, current account and capital account should add up to zero. But in reality, there is a discrepancy due to errors, time lags, and so on.
21 Official Reserve Assets purchase or sale of foreign assets held by the central bankOfficial international reserves: gold, SDR, foreign currencies, etc.(current account) + (non-reserve capital account) + (statistical discrepancy)= Balance of Payment (official settlement)
22 Balance of Payment Balance of Payment (official settlement) = current account deficit needed to be covered by the central bank’s official reserve transactions.BOP deficit the country is running down its official reserves.