1. Session #5c Additional Scenarios Session Lead : Satoko Horiyama MIURA Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)

2. Objectives Consideration of additional scenarios other than the Africa, Oil Spill and Regional Climate Change scenarios, based on 1.CFP Responses 2.Coordination with IP3 Scenarios from AR-07-01

3. CFP responses (from “Summary of CFP Responses” ) 1. Disasters Reduction and Prevention of Disasters – 23 –Wildfires in Africa – 8 – Africa –Tanker oil spill – 4 – Atlantic coast of Europe –Flooding/Land Slides – 4 – several geographic locations. 2. Ecosystem and biodiversity – 19 –Specific to Africa – 5 –Specific to Polar – 4 3. Climate Change – 14 –Local Effects – 5 –Reconnaissance scenario for the Polar Arctic 4. Other –Energy Management – 4 –Weather Forecasting – 4 –Air Quality – 3 –Water – Management and Food Security – 3 –Agriculture – 2 –Hurricane response –Land cover / land use change. –Marine geohazard disaster (slope failure and associated tsunami)

4. CFP responses (from “Summary of CFP Responses” ) 1. Disasters Reduction and Prevention of Disasters – 23 –Wildfires in Africa – 8 – Africa –Tanker oil spill – 4 – Atlantic coast of Europe –Flooding/Land Slides – 4 – several geographic locations. 2. Ecosystem and biodiversity – 19 –Specific to Africa – 5 –Specific to Polar – 4 3. Climate Change – 14 –Local Effects – 5 –Reconnaissance scenario for the Polar Arctic 4. Other –Energy Management – 4 –Weather Forecasting – 4 –Air Quality – 3 –Water – Management and Food Security – 3 –Agriculture – 2 –Hurricane response –Land cover / land use change. –Marine geohazard disaster (slope failure and associated tsunami)

5. CFP responses (from “Summary of CFP Responses” ) 1. Flooding/Land Slides – 4 – several geographic locations. 2. Energy Management – 4 3. Weather Forecasting – 4 4. Air Quality – 3 5. Water – Management and Food Security – 3 6. Agriculture – 2 7. Hurricane response 8. Land cover / land use change. 9. Marine geohazard disaster (slope failure and associated tsunami)

6. IP3 Scenarios and Data Flows WIS GBIF FDSN CEOP Species Response to Climate Change Scenario Nativi Fault Lubrication Scenario Ahern Landslide Risk Scenario Thomas Flood Risk Scenario Burford Seismic Events from Glacier/Ice Sheet Disintegration Scenario Ahern Exotic event catalog Terminus retreat GLIMS Event catalog Precip (NCAR/TIGGE), stream gauge (CUAHSI /USGS) Seismic Trigger Precip, soil moisture (TIGGE) Climate data (NCAR) Species data DEM (DEMIS) Ancillary Meningitis Early Warning System Kelly Precip, soil moisture (TIGGE) Soil moisture, stream gage, etc. Ecological Niche Modeling is applied to study the adaptation of butterflies in Canada and Alaska to various climate change scenarios. Requires interoperability between the GBIF (Global Biodiversity Information Facility) and components of the WIS (World Meteorological Organization Information System). A distributed surface run-off model provides data for flood warning and dam operation systems. Requires interoperability between CEOP (Coordinated Enhanced Observation Period) systems and components of the WIS. Analysis to determine whether rainfall and seismic data be used to predict locations where hillsides are susceptible to collapse. Requires interoperability between the FDSN (International Federation of Digital Seismographic Networks), the WIS, and an interoperable landslide database network in Australia. Analysis to determine whether high rainfall rates or excess groundwater produce increased earthquake activity in areas of known faults. Requires interoperability between FDSN and WIS components. Analysis of seismic signals and a combination of remote sensing and in situ data for selected glaciers to determine whether global seismic networks can be used to monitor ice sheets and glacial activity and thus remotely sense effects of warming on a global scale. Requires interoperability between FDSN and databases at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

7. IP3 Scenario End Points  Two IP3 scenarios (Species Response and Flood Risk) have substantial resources backing them –Schedule/critical path for these being worked –End point is live demo plus video or narrated slide show  IP3 scenarios involving FDSN may not evolve past conceptual stage due to lack of resources –End point is 2-page write up  At least 2 IP3 scenarios will require “special arrangements” to be registered, thus ensuring involvement of the SIF.

8. Coordination with IP3 scenarios Components of IP3 to be registered, so  Option 1 : Coordinate with IP3 team to refine their scenario. Prepare demonstration as “IP3” scenarios.  Option 2 : Use registered IP3 components in CFP scenario  Option 3 : Avoid overlapping, i.e., avoid the SBA of Water and Biodiversity for the new scenario  Option 4 : Option 2 & Option 3  Others ?

9. New Scenario Final

10.  Mission: (DISASTER) –Evacuation Planning and Evaluate Damage (DISASTER) HEALTH & WEATHER/CLIMATE –Smoke Impact Analysis (HEALTH & WEATHER/CLIMATE) AGRICULTURE –Evaluate impact on food crop (AGRICULTURE) 1.Target Region : Asia and other continent 2.Target SBA : Disaster, Health, Climate/Weather and Agriculture Proposal Huge Volcano Eruption  Incident: Huge Volcano Eruption in Asia, smoke spread over other continent

11. DISCUSSION !!

12. Evaluating Medium Resolution EO data for African monitoring sites Presented by: Thomas Lankester 6 th June 2007

13. RESPOND Scenario Event occurs in monitored African monitoring sites (wild fire, flood, etc.). Charter activationArchive check activation (data acquisition) Evaluation ‘after’ and ‘before’ comparison.

14. Scenario component view UK Multi-Mission Product Archive Facility generates MERIS FRS (300m) data systematically for Africa Data over monitoring sites ingested to WMS compliant to EO profile (rolling archive) Users can evaluate and select most recent data that is fit-for-purpose

15. http://193.123.18.107/EOLINE/