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Marine15 What the Future Brings and How To Be Prepared Bernard Salt 3 May 2015.

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Presentation on theme: "Marine15 What the Future Brings and How To Be Prepared Bernard Salt 3 May 2015."— Presentation transcript:

1 Marine15 What the Future Brings and How To Be Prepared Bernard Salt 3 May 2015

2 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Disclaimer These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. KPMG have indicated within this presentation the sources of the information provided. KPMG has not sought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation, unless these are confirmed in writing by KPMG. KPMG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation has been issued in final form. The findings in this presentation have been formed on the above basis. Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Forecasts should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of KPMG or any other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions. Neither KPMG nor any member or employee of KPMG undertakes responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by a third party on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party’s sole responsibility. The presentation (and the accompanying slide pack) is provided solely for the benefit of the conference attendees and is not to be copied, quoted or referred to in whole or in part without KPMG’s prior written consent. KPMG accepts no responsibility to anyone other than the conference attendees for the information contained in this presentation.

3 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. How much debt is too much debt? Source: Based on IMF Fiscal Monitor October 2014 Statistical Table 8 data & IMF World Economic Outlook Database October 2014 data; KPMG Demographics Net Debt per cent GDP 2015 for countries over US$200 billion GDP * excl those not reporting Net Debt eg China & Russia Norway United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia Finland Kazakhstan Algeria Sweden Chile Peru Denmark Qatar Australia Poland Colombia Turkey Switzerland New Zealand Brazil Republic of Korea Netherlands Canada Mexico South Africa Germany Austria Israel Spain United States United Kingdom Belgium Egypt FranceIreland Italy Portugal Japan Greece -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 % Norway (+215%) Australia (-17%) Greece (-166%) New Zealand (-27%) US (-81%) 37 countries GDP at least US$200bn No data for China & Russia UK (-85%)

4 Sydney Melbourne Hobart Adelaide Perth Darwin Brisbane Canberra Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics Australians have always been driven by lifestyle Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1992 and 2014 WINNERS LOSERS

5 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. 23 years of continuous economic prosperity shapes a nation and its people … creates a culture of aspirational consumerism Source: ABS Catalogue 5206.0 Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product; KPMG Demographics Per cent change in Australian GDP by quarter from September 1959 1960s1970s1980s1990s2000s2010s Menzies Whitlam Fraser Hawke GSTGFC

6 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Australia is now an Anglo-Mediterranean-Asian-Indian fusion culture Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics United Kingdom 1.0 million 1 New Zealand 617,000 2 China 447,000 3 India 397,000 4 5 Philippines 225,000 Vietnam 223,000 6 Italy 202,000 7 South Africa 176,000 8 Malaysia 154,000 9 Germany 129,000 10

7 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. New acronyms for our newest tribes PUMCINS … → Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice Suburbs …NETTELs ← Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life KIPPERS … → Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings …LOMBARDS ← Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead Source: KPMG Demographics

8 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Population hotspots cluster on the coast … we should be a boating nation! 1954 1Sydney 1,863 2Melbourne 1,524 3Brisbane 502 4Adelaide 484 5Perth 349 6Newcastle 178 7Hobart 95 8Wollongong 91 9Geelong 72 10Launceston 49 11Ballarat 48 12Toowoomba 43 13Rockhampton 41 14Townsville 40 15Ipswich 39 16Bendigo 37 17Broken Hill 31 18Canberra 28 19Blue Mountains 23 20Kalgoorlie 23 2014 1 Sydney4,841 2 Melbourne4,440 3 Brisbane2,275 4 Perth2,021 5 Adelaide1,305 6 Gold Coast - Tweed614 7 Newcastle - Maitland431 8 Canberra - Queanbeyan423 9 Sunshine Coast297 10 Wollongong289 11 Greater Hobart219 12 Geelong184 13 Townsville179 14 Cairns147 15 Greater Darwin140 16 Toowoomba114 17 Ballarat99 18 Bendigo92 19 Albury - Wodonga88 20 Launceston86 2050 1 Sydney7,688 2 Melbourne7,670 3 Perth4,633 4 Brisbane4,188 5 Adelaide1,797 6 Gold Coast - Tweed1,225 7 Canberra - Queanbeyan722 8 Newcastle - Maitland588 9 Sunshine Coast503 10 Wollongong384 11 Townsville340 12 Geelong301 13 Greater Hobart265 14 Cairns225 15 Greater Darwin209 16 Toowoomba197 17 Mackay193 18 Ballarat181 19 Bendigo161 20 Rockhampton142 Population figures expressed in ‘000s Source: KPMG; based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics; relevant State Government planning authorities 2014-50 2,847 3,230 2,358 2,167 492 611 291 165 206 95 121 117 86 78 69 83 94 89 73 56

9 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Even small fast-growing towns tend to be coastal Percentage growth in population over 12 months to June 2014 for the 100 largest significant urban areas (SUA) in Australia Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics Perth Darwin Brisbane Canberra Melbourne Sydney Adelaide Hobart 1.Ellenbrook 2.Melton 3.Karratha 4.Gladstone-Tannum Sands 5.Busselton 6.Ocean Grove-Pt Lonsdale 7.Bunbury 8.Bacchus Marsh 9.Torquay 10.Warragul-Drouin 100.Kalgoorlie-Boulder 99.Grafton 98.Moe-Newborough 97.Colac 96.Lismore

10 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2014 and 10 years to 2024 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics Water-based leisure and boating has relevance to all age groups 2004-2014: 3.6 million (19.9m to 23.5m) - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485+ 2014-2024: 4.2 million (23.5m to 27.7m) Kids & teenagers Surfing Canoeing/kayaking Families Houseboats Fishing Mature adults Prestige boats Active retirees Cruises 20s Socialising Jet skis

11 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Water-based leisure activities are part of the Australian lifestyle Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics Sports and physical activities participated in by Australians by sex in 2013 - 2014 Population (‘000) Water Surf

12 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Australians are dividing the lifecycle into ‘thirds’ 0901020304050607080 Child AdultOld 1934 Child TeenOldAdult 1974 71 Child AdolescenceLifestyleOldRetired 2014 Adult 82 63 Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

13 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. From Boomers to Xers and Ys … and finally to Zeds Source: KPMG Demographics Forgotten generation Wrong place … wrong time No workplace guilt Angsty about Ys X GENERATION ■Born 1965 – 1982 ■Today 32 – 49 Hierarchical Indulged their kids Depression era parents Sandwich generation BABY BOOMERS ■Born 1946 – 1964 ■Today 50 – 68 Y GENERATION Special … bubble-wrap Chaotic connection Entrepreneurials Disappointed generation? ■Born 1983 – 2000 ■Today 14 – 31 Parents results-oriented Youth in straitened times Highly educated, global Pragmatists … fixers Z GENERATION ■Born 2001 – 2019 ■Today 0 – 13

14 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. There has been a shift in the Australian economy towards knowledge workers Healthcare & Social Assist. Professional/ Scientific/Tech. Public Admin & Safety Accom & FoodAdmin & SupportMiningEducation & Training Arts & Recreation Financial & Insurance Other Services Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Rental/hiring & Real Estate Info Media & Telecoms Manufacturing 6 years February 2009 – up 1.4m (9.4m – 10.8m) Electricity/Gas/ Water & Waste Agriculture/Forestry & Fishing Transport/Postal/ Warehouse Healthcare & Social Assistance Professionals & Sciences Education Accommodation & Food 6 years February 2015 – up 1.0m (10.8m – 11.8m) -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Construction Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

15 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. The Australian boat building and allied services industries are changing Industry2011% Port and Water Transport Terminal Operations 6,57446% Includes ports & freight, water passenger terminal, ship mooring, wharf operation Scenic and Sightseeing Transport5,46921% Includes charter fishing boat operation, hovercraft operation, airboat operation Shipbuilding and Repair Services6,26014%Ship building Water Passenger Transport1,6234% Boat charter, lease or rental, ferry operation (boat & passenger), water taxi Marine Equipment Retailing2,580-15% Boat retailing, boat trailers, marine accessories, outboard motors, yachts, nautical/sailing accessories Boatbuilding and Repair Services6,044-28% Boat building (canoes, dinghies, jet boats, motorboats, sailboats, yachts) & repairs Occupation2011% Boat Builder and Repairer2,691-33% Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

16 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Source: KPMG Demographics Where are the opportunities in 2015 Australia is a first-world nation that has enjoyed an era of unparalleled prosperity... that has converted into an interest in leisure boating 1 The Baby Boomers have passed through ‘peak boating’ over the last 20 years … the challenge will be to engage their Gen Y children 2 Most of the Australian population is located near water and has a predisposition to water-based leisure … boating should come naturally to this community 3 Boat building is shedding jobs in Australia and the scope for new marinas is limited … demand for trailer boats and ramps must increase as must the boat importing business 4 The challenge is to remain connected with a boating or water-based offer to all age groups and especially the 20-Something Gen Ys! 5

17 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Introducing the Gold Coast bachelor hot spot Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged 25-34 at the 2011 Census “Golf Club of Love” Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics Reedy Creek 2.41:1 Surfers Paradise 1.85:1 Burleigh Golf Club

18 © 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. @bernardsalt Bernard Salt Demographer linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt bsalt@kpmg.com.au +61 3 9288 5047 www.bernardsalt.com.au @bernardsalt Connect


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