1. 1 MURI:NADIR Progress on Area 6 solar features forecast October 2010

2. Recent progress on image analysis Using now SDO/AIA images for chromospheric disk masks Coronal masks implementation is in progress, including coronal holes and groups of loops definition Streamlined production of synoptic masks and merging of inputs from GONG Work on automatically assimilating SWAN data and on better calibrating data is ongoing Case study was performed using start of solar cycle 24 and this is used in the illustrations following. Hopefully the Sun will get more active and more dramatic cases will be available soon

3. Components: 1) daily inputs on 2010/8/4 SDO/AIA chromospheric masks using 450 & 160 nm, coronal masks still in definition phase Obsolescence map Synoptic map with defined regions for update Black: near-side identified Blue: far-side identified Far-side GONG regions identified (text file indicating location & strength) SWAN calibrated images

4. Synoptic mask refinement on 2010/8/4 SWAN observed Lyα backscatter Computed Lyα flux map before refinement Computed Lyα flux map after refinement Refinement includes new region(s) found by GONG and updates areas of features to match SWAN brightness contrast

5. Refined synoptic mask on 2010/8/4 a)Near-side regions replaced by equivalent scheme b)Far-side GONG detected new region inserted with similar distribution of features to the nearest region c)SWAN Lyα contrast used to update far-side areas of features (assuming a simple scaling) a a b a a c c c c Refined synoptic mask Original synoptic mask

6. 8/68/108/14Daily disk masks From the synoptic on 8/4 with no refinement. From the refined synoptic on 8/4. Note the new region absent above and other changes. The observed as time elapsed. The observation times are a few hours after the ones above.

7. Effects on Lyα spectral irradiance

8. Longer picture on Lyα spectral irradiance

9. Note that: 1) these EVE data was not corrected for degradation and its behavior at 30.4 nm is affected by that; 2) comparison here is between SRPM data at 10 A resolution, not including flares, and EVE at 1 A. The 25.72 nm appears somewhat underestimated at day 14 and 17.12 nm is severely underestimated, these are high temperature dominated and show we did not increase enough the P (red, hot AR) but instead too much the H (yellow, mild AR). Few other EUV wavelengths

10. Current status and issues Coronal masks and how coronal relate to chromospheric features (filling factor & areal magnification). How to narrow down AR features distribution (S, R, P vs. H and F) from far-side data (using both GONG & SWAN). Better images flat-fielding to reduce noise & artifacts. How to best handle active network and network (features F and E). Automate SWAN data handling (shadows, stars, milky way, discontinuities, interplanetary ionization changes). Complete automatic generation coronal features masks. Flares, how to avoid or what to do about them? Define strategy for time of forecast when variations are fast. Spectral issues are discussed in the next presentation…