1. 1 An Overview of NOAA Climate Prediction Center Briefing for Rita Colwell November 20, 2007 Mike Halpert, Deputy Director www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

2. 2 Climate Prediction Center Mission : Serve the public by assessing and predicting short-term* climate variability, emphasizing risks of weather related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains. * “short-term” = next week, month, season(s), out to 1-year

3. 3 Climate Prediction Center Activities Climate Monitoring and Nowcasting - Extending from the stratosphere to the oceans and from global to regional, what is the current state of the climate? Climate Prediction - How is the near term global and regional climate system likely to evolve? Applied Research - To develop improved reference climatologies, monitoring & forecast tools & products. Outreach – To deliver climate information, and to interact with decision makers and users to improve ways this information is delivered.

4. 4 Climate Monitoring Monitoring ActivitiesMonitoring Activities –Primary modes of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...) –Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere) –Storm Tracks and Blocking –Oceanic Conditions (global) –Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and US) –Drought (US, North America)

5. 5 Surface and subsurface ocean temperatures, precipitation and atmospheric circulation. Weekly updates (PDF and.ppt) available on CPC’s ENSO page. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml ENSO (El Niño and La Niña) C C C C

6. 6 Global Precipitation Monitoring CMORPH (CPC Morphing technique) is a high spatial and temporal resolution satellite-derived precipitation analysis. It is derived exclusively from satellite microwave observations. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/janowiak/cmorph_description.html

7. 7 Drought Monitor Interagency Partners: NWS/CPC USDA/JAWF NDMC NCDC Outside Experts: USGS State Climos RCCs NWS Hydros Posted on the Internet every Thursday morning NewspapersTV Stations Government officials Public

8. 8 Climate Assessments Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, available on web)Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, available on web) ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and MS WORD)ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and MS WORD) Weekly ENSO update (.ppt, PDF versions available on web)Weekly ENSO update (.ppt, PDF versions available on web) Seasonal Climate Summaries (available on web)Seasonal Climate Summaries (available on web) Special Climate Assessments (extreme events due to persistent patterns, available on web)Special Climate Assessments (extreme events due to persistent patterns, available on web) Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency summary published in the AMS Bulletin)Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency summary published in the AMS Bulletin) Hazards Assessments (U.S., Africa, global – under development, all available on the web)Hazards Assessments (U.S., Africa, global – under development, all available on the web)

9. 9 ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (State of Tropical Pacific) Monthly ENSO Diagnostics Discussion and Outlook… La Niña will likely continue into early 2008.” “La Niña will likely continue into early 2008.”

10. 10 ENSO-Related Global Temperature/Precipitation

11. 11 Climate Prediction Products UV Index (updated daily) U.S. Hazards Assessments (issued Mon., adjusted Tue.-Fri.) 6-10 Day (week-1) and 8-14 Day (week-2) Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks (updated daily, 3:30pm) ENSO Diagnostics Discussion & Outlook (El Niño, La Niña updated monthly, 1 st or 2 nd Thu. [5-11] of the month) Monthly Outlooks for Total Precipitation and Mean Temperature (3 rd Thu. of the month; Updated at the end of the month) Seasonal Outlooks for Total Precipitation and Mean Temperature (3 rd Thu. of the month) Drought Outlook (1 st and 3 rd Thu. of the month) Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific - issued in May, updated in Aug.)

12. 12 U.S. Hazards Assessment Provides emergency managers, forecasters and the public advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events. Integrates existing NWS official medium (3-5 day), extended (6-10 day, week 2) and long-range (monthly and seasonal) forecasts and outlooks.

13. 13 Experimental Global Hazards

14. 14 6-10 Day Outlook TemperaturePrecipitation The 6-10 Day T & P outlooks are based on a blend of statistical and dynamical model forecasts, including the North American Ensemble Forecast System (T only). Three categories are used: A (ABOVE); B (BELOW); N (NEAR AVERAGE) – TEMPERATURE N (NEAR MEDIAN) – PRECIPITATION

15. 15 NDJ Seasonal Outlook TemperaturePrecipitation Outlooks combine long-term trends and soil-moisture effects, along with typical ENSO impacts when appropriate. Seasonal Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month (with 0.5 month lead), for 13 overlapping 3- month seasons. B (BELOW); N (NEAR NORMAL); EC (EQUAL CHANCES OF A, B, N)

16. 16 Applied Research Activities Climate diagnostics and attributionClimate diagnostics and attribution Prediction tool development/ improvementPrediction tool development/ improvement Climate monitoring tool development/ improvementClimate monitoring tool development/ improvement Model diagnostics and evaluationModel diagnostics and evaluation Atmospheric and oceanic predictabilityAtmospheric and oceanic predictability Weather/ Climate linksWeather/ Climate links TeleconnectionsTeleconnections Drought/ floods and other extreme eventsDrought/ floods and other extreme events CPC strives to accelerate the transfer of research results into operations (new and improved forecast products and services)

17. 17 Climate Test Bed THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED Climate Community Climate Community Research & Development Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission: Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.

18. 18 NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed The CTB is a facility to accelerate scientific advances to operationsThe CTB is a facility to accelerate scientific advances to operations –Bridging the “Valley of Death” between research & operational service applications –Embracing the R2O and O2R paradigms The CTB emphasizes high profile science activitiesThe CTB emphasizes high profile science activities –CFS/GFS Improvements (CFSRR) –Multi-model ensembles (IMME, NMME) –Climate forecast products and applications (drought / NIDIS) Competitive Grants ProgramCompetitive Grants Program CTB-COLA Seminar SeriesCTB-COLA Seminar Series CPC-RISA ProgramCPC-RISA Program Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY09)Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY09)

19. 19 Some Common Customer Demands: 1.Improve the skill of sub-seasonal and seasonal outlooks. 2.Make them more usable and easier to understand. 3.Expand products beyond averages to extremes. 4.Give more temporal and spatial detail. Meeting Customer Needs

20. 20 Users of CPC Products Energy generation & distribution Reservoir & water management Retail industry Agriculture Recreation Emergency managers NWS Weather Forecast Offices & federal agencies (USDA, USAID, FEMA, USGS, EPA, DOE, …) General public

21. 21 Outreach Activities Products disseminated via internet and AWIPS Regular NOAA web articles about extreme climate anomalies (e.g., drought, ENSO) & predictions News releases & press conferences NCEP Product Review (annual) NWS, WFO staff training & briefings International training (e.g., African Desk) Briefings (e.g., USDA-daily, USAID-weekly, WFOs…) 32 nd Annual Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop (October, 2007, to be hosted by the Florida State University, Tallahassee)

22. 22 Climate Prediction Center’s support of USAID Initiatives Program in support of USAID food security activitiesProgram in support of USAID food security activities Based in Africa, Central America/Caribbean and southern AsiaBased in Africa, Central America/Caribbean and southern Asia CPC provides rainfall estimates, weekly briefings and hazard reports as well as ad hoc supportCPC provides rainfall estimates, weekly briefings and hazard reports as well as ad hoc support CPC maintains a large suite of “operational” climate prediction and monitoring productsCPC maintains a large suite of “operational” climate prediction and monitoring products CPC plays a unique and critical role in NOAA climate servicesCPC plays a unique and critical role in NOAA climate services The mission of CPC is to serve the nation by monitoring, assessing and predicting short-term climate variabilityThe mission of CPC is to serve the nation by monitoring, assessing and predicting short-term climate variability

23. 23 Summary CPC maintains a large suite of “operational” climate prediction and monitoring productsCPC maintains a large suite of “operational” climate prediction and monitoring products CPC plays a unique and critical role in NOAA climate servicesCPC plays a unique and critical role in NOAA climate services The mission of CPC is to serve the nation by monitoring, assessing and predicting short-term climate variabilityThe mission of CPC is to serve the nation by monitoring, assessing and predicting short-term climate variability

24. 24 Some 2007-08 Events of Interest State of Tropical Pacific (La Niña Conditions) and ImpactsState of Tropical Pacific (La Niña Conditions) and Impacts Drought Conditions and OutlookDrought Conditions and Outlook Southern Hemisphere Ozone HoleSouthern Hemisphere Ozone Hole 2007-08 Winter Outlook2007-08 Winter Outlook 2008 Spring Outlook2008 Spring Outlook Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlooks (and Update)Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlooks (and Update)