1. Forecasting Agricultural Development in Fergana Valley until 2050 Dr. Sherzod Muminov Dr. Boris Gojenko Scientific Information Center of Interstate Coordination Water Commission of Central Asia (SIC ICWC) Case study in Uzbekistan Agricultural Transitions along the Silk Road Restructuring, Resources and Trade in the Central Asia Region

2. What is CAWa? Regional Research Network “Water in Central Asia” (CAWa) Central Asia faces big water-related challenges: water scarcity, degrading water quality and inefficient water use. Climate change may aggravate the situation. These challenges can be met only in a joint effort of all Central Asian states. The CAWa project intends to contribute to a sound scientific and a reliable regional data basis for the development of sustainable water management strategies in Central Asia.

3. CAWa’s Motivation The political dimension of water is to be addressed by political institutions. Only multinational administrative approaches will be able to confine and/or avoid water conflicts and stabilize the region substantially. Scientific research may serve as a catalyst for interstate cooperation on political and administrative levels. Only science is able to provide the reliable data basis that is needed to come to sustainable decisions in water management.

4. CAWa’s Objectives  To provide a sound scientific basis for trans- national water resources management in Central Asia.  The research activities involve a network of scientific institutions all over Central Asia. They are producing joint scientific results as well as pass down up-to-date scientific methods and approaches.

5. CAWA’s Partners

6. CAWa’s Funding CAWa is funded by the German Federal Foreign Office. It is part of the German Water Initiative for Central Asia (“Berlin Process”), which the German Federal Foreign Office launched on 1 April 2008 in order to support peaceful, sustainable and mutually beneficial management of transboundary water resources in Central Asia.

7. CAWa’s structure  WP 1: Hydrometeorological Monitoring Network and Geodatabase  WP 2: Regional water resources and climate modeling  WP 3: Regional water resources management  WP 4: Education and Training  WP 5: Remote Sensing Products and Data Integration  WP 6: Design of an Information System

8. Main tasks:  Determine a perspective population growth for the period of 2020-2050  Forecast agricultural development (change of crop and livestock production, irrigated areas and yield) for the period of 2020-2050  Forecast basic food production per capita for the period of 2020-2050

9. Data/information sources for forecast  Statistic data and analytical information of the Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources, State Committee of Statistics;  Official statistic data of provincial departments of statistics for 2000-2011;  Long-term national and sectoral development strategies;  Relevant projects of the State Investment Program;  Food balance sheet and land balance;  Specific decrees and orders of local authorities (khokimiyats);  Information from provincial departments of agriculture and water resources;  Other sources.

10. Scenarios’ description  BAU - Business as Usual  FSD – Food Security and Diet Change  ESA - Export oriented Sustainable Adaptation

11. Task 1: Determine the perspective population growth  National population policy: upbringing of healthy and harmonious developed population  Average annual population growth in the Fergana Valley in the long-term: 1.2-1.3%  Food demand growth is forecasted to increase by 14% by 2020, and by more than 50% by 2050. Province Average annual population growth, % Population, thousand people Average food demand growth, % 2020205020202050 Andijan 1.2-1.3% 2 8823 942 approx. 14.0% more than 50% Namangan 2 5713 554 Fergana 3 4604 678 Forecasted demographic indicators for the Fergana Valley Source: own calculation based on the parameters of the Population Policy Strategy of the Republic of Uzbekistan

12. Task 2: Forecast agricultural development Andijan provinceNamangan provinceFergana province Forecasted change in crop areas in the Fergana Valley

13. Task 2: Forecast agricultural development Forecasted change in yields of main crops in the Fergana Valley Andijan provinceNamangan provinceFergana province

14. Task 2: Forecast agricultural development Forecasted change in main crop production in in the Fergana Valley Andijan provinceNamangan provinceFergana province

15. Task 2: Forecast agricultural development Forecasted change in livestock population in the Fergana valley Andijan provinceNamangan provinceFergana province

16. Task 2: Forecast agricultural development Forecasted change in livestock production in the Fergana valley Andijan provinceNamangan provinceFergana province

17. 17 Task 3: Forecast basic food production per capita Forecast of basic food production per capita in Fergana valley Andijan provinceNamangan provinceFergana province

18. THANK YOU ! Should you have any questions, please ask now or contact: shmuminov@yahoo.com gojbor@rambler.ru