1. 1 Commercial Developments in MEO: An Insurance Perspective David Wade Space Underwriter Atrium Space Insurance Consortium Ninth European Space Weather Week Brussels, Belgium, November 2012

2. 2 Contents Ninth European Space Weather Week, Brussels, Belgium, November 2012 Operational Satellites by Function Operational Satellites by Orbit Insured Satellites MEO Commercial Developments All Electric Spacecraft MEO Experience The MEO Environment Risk Mitigation Satellite Anomalies Summary

3. 3 Operational Satellites by Function Ninth European Space Weather Week, Brussels, Belgium, November 2012 Ref: State of the Satellite Industry Report, Satellite Industry Association, May 2012

4. 4 Operational Satellites by Orbit Ninth European Space Weather Week, Brussels, Belgium, November 2012 500 400 300 200 100 LEOMEOELIGEO Ref: State of the Satellite Industry Report, Satellite Industry Association, May 2012 Orbit Number of Satellites All operational satellites

5. 5 Operational Satellites by Orbit Ninth European Space Weather Week, Brussels, Belgium, November 2012 500 400 300 200 100 LEOMEOELIGEO Ref: State of the Satellite Industry Report, Satellite Industry Association, May 2012 Orbit Number of Satellites All operational satellites 26 170 Insured operational satellites

6. 6 Insured Satellites (January 2012) Ninth European Space Weather Week, Brussels, Belgium, November 2012 Unit count Aggregate Market exposure, $ billions Ref: Statistics of the International Union of Aerospace Insurers Space Risk Study Group/XL Aerospace 250 200 150 100 50 0 25 20 15 10 5 0 Insured Satellites (left scale) Market Exposure (right scale) 200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012

7. 7 MEO Commercial Developments Ninth European Space Weather Week, Brussels, Belgium, November 2012 O3b – “Other 3 Billion”BSS 702SP – All electric spacecraft

8. 8 All Electric Spacecraft Ninth European Space Weather Week, Brussels, Belgium, November 2012 Launch mass of medium/large geostationary communications satellites halved Reduced launch mass allows dual launches on low cost launchers such as Falcon 9 First all electric spacecraft – BSS 702SP Four BSS 702SP’s ordered to date as a joint venture between ABS and Satmex First launch, ABS 3a & Satmex 7 in Q4, 2014 – Q1, 2015 Declared programme costs of $400/four spacecraft + $130/two launches Spacecraft heritage from other BSS 702 products Longer orbit raising phase (months as opposed to days) Prolonged exposure to MEO environment during orbit raising From an insurance perspective: Some failure scenarios may result in more significant losses Some failure scenarios may require more than 12 months for LEOP / IOT to be completed

9. 9 MEO Experience Ninth European Space Weather Week, Brussels, Belgium, November 2012 -2 -4-6-8 GEO GPS ISS Galileo +2 +4 -4 -2 0 0 Earth radii GNSS GPS: 20,200 km, i = 55 o Glonass: 19,100 km, i = 64.8 o Galileo: 23,222 km, i = 56 o Compass: 21,500km, i = 55.5 o COMMUNICATIONS ICO F2: 10,600km, i = 45 o ANOMALIES Asiasat 3 / HGS 1 (24.12.97 – Proton anomaly) 36,000 km x 350 km, i = 46 o Artemis (12.07.01 – Ariane 5 anomaly) 17,487 km x 590 km, i = 2.94 o Arabsat 4A (28.02.06 – Proton anomaly) 14,700 km x 508 km, i = 46 o AMC 14 (15.03.08 – Proton anomaly) 35,500 km x 710 km, i = 49 o ELECTRIC ORBIT RAISING SMART 1 (27.09.03) 250 km x 36,000 km, i = 6% to lunar orbit AEHF-1 (14.08.10 – LAE anomaly) 50,179 km x 221 km, i = 22.2 o Not to scale

10. 10 The MEO Environment Ninth European Space Weather Week, Brussels, Belgium, November 2012 0102030405060708090 0.0E+0 2.0E+4 4.0E+4 6.0E+4 8.0E+4 1.0E+5 1.2E+5 TID, radiation / year Inclination, degrees Altitude, km 9k10k11k12k13k14k Ref: Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) as a Venue for Future NOAA Satellite Systems, Dittberner, G.J. et al GNSS Systems All-electric s/c (At 5, Δ4, Fal 9) All-electric s/c (Ar 5)

11. 11 Risk Mitigation Ninth European Space Weather Week, Brussels, Belgium, November 2012 Ref: www.mpug.com/Newsletters/MPUG_20120307.html “ ‘Be careful’! All you can tell me is ‘be careful’?”

12. 12 Satellite Anomalies Ninth European Space Weather Week, Brussels, Belgium, November 2012 The ASIC database includes over 2,300 anomalies on 922 satellites from 1986

13. 13 Satellite Anomalies Ninth European Space Weather Week, Brussels, Belgium, November 2012 The ASIC database includes over 2,300 anomalies on 922 satellites from 1986

14. 14 Summary Ninth European Space Weather Week, Brussels, Belgium, November 2012 Satellites orbiting in / spending significant period in MEO represent a small proportion of total industry experience Questions remain as to how well the MEO environment is characterised, especially with regard to transient conditions Risk mitigation measures can be taken but uncertain as to whether they are adequate / appropriate for transient conditions Space weather known to cause anomalies, however little experience with commercial spacecraft. Will the greater commercial use of MEO result in more anomalies or insurance claims?