1. SFS Sacramento May 23, 2016 Special Session Introduction: Traits-Based Vulnerability Assessment and Monitoring Under Climate Change Britta Bierwagen (EPA/ORD), Anna Hamilton, (Tetra Tech), Susan Julius (EPA/ORD), Jen Stamp (Tetra Tech), Jonathan Witt (Fairfax County Stormwater Planning Division) Society for Freshwater Science May 23, 2016 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and they do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency or other collaborating agencies

2. Goal of climate change vulnerability assessments? 2 Vulnerability assessment results should support actions by: – Addressing the decision context – Providing results that map to needs – Identifying and prioritizing vulnerabilities – Supporting identification of actions that address key vulnerabilities Iterative vulnerability assessments can inform monitoring and adaptive management to: – Assess effectiveness – Adjust management actions – Re-evaluate goals and objectives in light of results SFS Sacramento May 23, 2016

3. Added value of a traits-based approach? 3 Traits-based approaches can – Inform the mechanistic link between pattern and process – Provide insights into observed patterns of vulnerability – Allow comparisons across geographic regions with different species pools – Identify changes over time resulting from management actions to further understand trait responses SFS Sacramento May 23, 2016

4. Where do traits fit into vulnerability assessments and monitoring? 4 SFS Sacramento May 23, 2016

5. 5 Vulnerability Assessment: Exposure + Sensitivity/Adaptive Capacity Conceptual Models Frameworks Data Availability Illustration of impacts and uncertainties Match vulnerability output to adaptation needs Adaptation Assessment Are data at correct scale (space, time)? What proxies are available? What results can you get with the data you have? Are outputs relevant for adaptation? Are they at the right scale? Define Goals Stakeholder Input

6. 6 Adaptation Assessment Brainstorm/identify management options Assess effectiveness of management options to reduce impact across range of climate scenarios Determine how to implement actions at specific locations Implementation Strategy Looking for options that might address multiple impacts Identify dependences, synergies, maladaptations Theoretical feasibility and practical feasibility to reduce impacts Identify addressable impacts from vulnerability assessment Stakeholder Input How does changing scope of study change availability of actions? Prioritize addressable impacts May involve modeling, expert elicitation, robustness, trade-off analyses Monitoring & Adaptive Management

7. Example vulnerability assessment using traits information 7 SFS Sacramento May 23, 2016

8. From Vulnerability Assessment to Monitoring 8 Exposure Projected change in summer air temperature (mid-century minus baseline) Rate of change (climate velocity) Shading Riparian Local catchment Total watershed Baseflow Urban land use (medium and high intensity) Connectivity with cold water habitat Sensitivity Macroinvertebrate assemblage Probability of occurrence in small, cold, fast-flowing catchments Vulnerability to Increasing Summer Temperatures: Potential Variables SFS Sacramento May 23, 2016

9. Assemblage Clusters with Trait Information G1: Cold water and erosional preference taxa streams G2: Low diversity streams, intermediate in terms of the percentage of taxa in each group G3: Warm water and depositional preference taxa streams

10. Vulnerability of Catchments to Increasing Summer Temperatures 10 SSWR Webinar Region Total stream length (km) Vulnerability to Scenario 1 leastmoderatemostNA Northeast195607.69.773.312.34.7 MidAtlantic264856.413.172.012.82.2 Southeast571371.224.371.33.50.8 Percent stream length in each vulnerability category (source: NHDPlus v1)

11. 11 SFS Milwaukee May 18, 2015 Regional Climate Change Stream Monitoring Sites

12. Dominant class - baseline (1981-2010) Dominant class - future (2040-2069) Change in Communities over Time G1 probability of membership future (2040-2069) - baseline (1981-2010) Negative value = probability of G1 membership is reduced by mid-century Positive value = probability of G1 membership increases by mid-century G1: Cold water and erosional preference taxa streams G2: Low diversity streams, intermediate in terms of the percentage of taxa in each group G3: Warm water and depositional preference taxa streams

13. Can we use traits now? 13 Traits-based approaches can be integral to vulnerability and adaptation assessments – Depends on depth of understanding of traits Is there a dominant trait impacted by climate change (e.g., stream temperatures, flow)? If there are multiple traits impacted by climate change, how do they co-vary? If traits are too specific, does this limit applicability across communities due to small sample sizes? – And data availability Is the depth of our understanding of traits reflected in the available data? Is it possible to collect the appropriate data? – How is trait information useful for identifying management actions that maintain communities over time? Can this guide monitoring of thresholds or community shifts? Can this guide restoration and other adaptation actions? SFS Sacramento May 23, 2016

14. Thank you! Questions? Bierwagen.britta@epa.gov | 703-347-8613 14 SFS Sacramento May 23, 2016