1. Tanker Supply & tanker incidents by Erik.Ranheim@INTERTANKO.com Manager Research and Projects INTERTANKO Council - London 18 November 2008 Erik.Ranheim@INTERTANKO.com

2. Tanker supply

3. Tanker contracting bn $/ m dwt bn $ Source. Clarkson Shipyard Monitor m dwt Av 7.3 17.5 19.9 38.9 $ 38.4 61.1 dwt

4. Tanker fleet, orderbook, SH tankers 58.7 169.7 373.7 m dwt Average age 10.9 years 89% <20 years old 75% <15 years old 61% <10 years old m dwt

5. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out 25,000 – 59,999 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007 Fleet 1,61466 m dwt Orderb. 43520 “ 31% Not DH 28711 ” 16%

6. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Panamaxes 60,000 – 79,000 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007 Fleet 35725 m dwt Orderb.13210 “ 39% Not DH 72 5 ” 19%

7. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Aframaxes 80,000 – 119,999 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007 Fleet 76279 m dwt Orderb.27130 “ 38% Not DH 99 9 ” 12%

8. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Suezmaxes 120,000 – 199,999 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007 Fleet 35955 m dwt Orderb.18629 “ 54% Not DH 38 6 ” 10%

9. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out VLCCs 200,000 dwt + m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007 Fleet 503149 m dwt Orderb261 81 “ 54% Not DH103 28 ” 19%

10. VLCC arriving AG next 30 days by hull 2007/08Number Source: Pareto Week number

11. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out All tankers > 25,000 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007 Fleet 3.595374 m dwt Orderb1,285170 “ 45% SH 600 59 ” 16%

12. Investment in new tankers Some $ 327 billion invested in new buildings since 2000 *Assuming only DB/DS tankers continue to trade beyond 2010, some SH tanker will most probably continue until the age of 25 years old %

13. Tanker fleet development Tanker fleet increase 2003-2010: 61% 2008-2010: 22% m dwt number

14. Tanker incidents

15. Tanker incidents by cause Number

16. Tanker incidents by cause

17. Tanker incidents Engine 2006: 32 2007: 50 2008: 48 Explosions 2006: 11 2007: 6 2008: 7

18. Reported tanker incidents 2008 49 fatalities,  6 single,  2 fall into tank  4 collision w/cargo ship  8 explosion LPG ship under repair  14 small tanker sank in Vietnam  15 bulker rammed by small tanker China Incidents on the way down No serious pollution incidents Piracy Engine failure high 2007 EMSA report positive for tankers

19. SH trading beyond 2010? –AustraliaNo –ChinaNo –EU No –Mexico No –Romania No –S KoreaNo –PhilippinesNo –UAENo no official note to IMO on – –Bahamas Yes – –Barbados Yes – –Liberia Yes – –Marshall Isl.Yes – –Panama FlagYes – –JapanYes – –Singapore Yes – –India Yes – –Hong Kong * Yes *20 years Flag/Port States positions MARPOL 20 Trading until the age of 25 years – –United States N/A OPA90

20. Global Financial Crisis Tanker Fleet Removals Source: INTERTANKO m dwt Conversions 2005200620072008 2009 Small 2 0 13 23 Aframax 0 4 19 14 Suezmax 0 6 13 9 VLCC 2 9 15 30 ? ?