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The Rise of Asia and the Transformation of the World Economy by Dale W. Jorgenson Samuel W. Morris University Professor Harvard University

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Presentation on theme: "The Rise of Asia and the Transformation of the World Economy by Dale W. Jorgenson Samuel W. Morris University Professor Harvard University"— Presentation transcript:

1 The Rise of Asia and the Transformation of the World Economy by Dale W. Jorgenson Samuel W. Morris University Professor Harvard University http://scholar.harvard.edu/jorgenson/ Public Forum: The Third Asia KLEMS Conference Taipei, Taiwan – August 13, 2015 Asia's Revival - The New Economic Driver

2 THREE MAJOR TRENDS IN THE WORLD ECONOMY CHINA OVERTAKES THE U.S.: The U.S. Has Been the World’s Leading Economy for a Century WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH ACCELERATES: Mainly Due to China with a Contribution from India THE NEW WORLD ORDER IN 2022: China, U.S., India, Japan, Germany, Russia, Brazil

3 SOURCES OF WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH LABOR INPUT GROWTH: Hours Worked and Labor Quality THE SOURCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: Capital Input, Labor Input, and Productivity CAPITAL INPUT GROWTH: Information and Non-Information Technology TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY Output per Unit of Input

4 Sources of World Economic Growth, 1995-2012 Annual percentage growth rates

5 Sources of World Economic Growth Annual percentage growth rates

6 Sources of G7 Economic Growth Annual percentage growth rates

7 Sources of BRICS Economic Growth Annual percentage growth rates

8 DEMOGRAPHICS: Hours Worked from Labor Force Projections; Labor Quality from Educational Attainment LABOR PRODUCTIVITY: Growth of TFP, Capital and Labor Quality, and the Gap between Output and Capital GDP GROWTH: Sum of the Growth of Hours Worked and Labor Productivity PROJECTING GROWTH OF THE WORLD ECONOMY

9 World Productivity Growth Projections, 2012-2022 Annual percentage growth rates

10 World Growth Projections, 2012-2022 Annual percentage growth rates

11 Growth Projections for the World Economy Annual percentage growth rates

12 Growth Projections for the G7 Economy Annual percentage growth rates

13 Growth Projections for the BRICS Economy Annual percentage growth rates

14 New Economic Order 2022 Percentage shares of world GDP

15 RESEARCH ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: Growth of Input Greatly Exceeds TFP Growth; Most Growth is Replication Not Innovation OFFICIAL STATISTICS: Growth Is Now Included in Our National Accounts; This Involves a New Architecture for the Accounts THE ASIAN MODEL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: The Special Sauce Is Globalization and the Accumulation of Human and Nonhuman Capital The Rise of Asia and the New World Order

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