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Research on Public Opinion and Voting Behavior Related to LGBT People Heterosexuals ’ opinions about homosexuals and homosexuality (change over time, correlates)

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Presentation on theme: "Research on Public Opinion and Voting Behavior Related to LGBT People Heterosexuals ’ opinions about homosexuals and homosexuality (change over time, correlates)"— Presentation transcript:

1 Research on Public Opinion and Voting Behavior Related to LGBT People Heterosexuals ’ opinions about homosexuals and homosexuality (change over time, correlates) Heterosexual voting on civil rights initiatives Bisexual/Gay/Lesbian voting behavior and party identification

2 Sexual Relations between Two Adults of Same Sex are Always Wrong (GSS, 1973-2010)

3 Allow Homosexuals to be Teachers (GSS, 1973-2010)

4 Society Should Accept Homosexuality as a Way of Life (source: Pew) DatePercentage July 199446% April 199547 April 199644 June 199745 August 199949 September 200050 June 200347 December 200449 October 200651 March 201158 January 201256 March 201357

5 Mean Thermometer Ratings--Homosexuals (NES, 1988-2008)

6 Thermometer Ratings of Other Groups (2008 NES)

7 Mean Thermometer Ratings: Gays and Lesbians by Race/Ethnicity (2008 NES)

8 Support for Protection from Job Discrimination NES, 1992-2004

9 Homosexuals should have equal job opportunities. DatePollPercentage 1977Gallup56% 1982Gallup59 1989Gallup71 1992Gallup74 1994Newsweek74 1996Newsweek84 1998Newsweek83 2000Newsweek83

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11 Homosexuals should have equal job opportunities. DatePollPercentage 2002Newsweek85 2004Newsweek87 2006Gallup89 2008Gallup89

12 Percent who favor same-sex marriage

13 Vote for well-qualified homosexual for president. (Source: Gallup) DatePercentage 197826% 198329 199959 200755 201167 201268

14 Percent who favor same-sex marriage

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19 Reasons for Change Increasing levels of education Less willingness to restrict civil liberties generally Increasing visibility of LGBT people Framing of gay rights movement (minority identity versus sexual conduct) Orientation versus preference Focusing events (e.g., Matthew Shepherd) De-linking of opinions about civil rights from judgments of homosexuality Changing positions of political elites

20 State and Local Civil Rights Initiatives 1972-2005, 143 Initiatives (105 at local level) 1972-2005, 113 Anti-gay Initiatives 1972-2005, 30 Pro-gay Initiatives 1972-2005, 71% Anti-gay Outcomes (70% at local level) 1972-1996, 90 Initiatives, 75% Anti-gay Outcomes 1997-2005, 53 Initiatives, 64% Anti-gay Outcomes

21 Factors Affecting Outcomes of Civil Rights Initiatives Jurisdiction size (pro-gay outcome at local level) Education (pro-gay outcome) Gay households (pro-gay outcome) Fundamentalists in electorate (anti-gay outcome)

22 County-level Vote on Marriage Amendments: California and Florida (Salka and Burnett 2012) VariableProposition 22 California 2000 Proposition 8 California 2008 Marriage Protection Florida 2008 % Republican++ % 18-34 years old- % White-- SES (educ + income)-- Population density-- % Catholic++- % with religious affiliation + Sample size58 67

23 Context and Voting on Same-Sex Ballot Measures, 2004-2006 (Dyck and Pearson-Merkowitz 2011) VariableDirection of Relation % Urban--- Born-again x % Gay Households- Female--- Black+++ Age+++ Income-- Conservatism+++ Approve of President Bush+++ Republican+++ Born-again Christian+++ Sample size13,452

24 Age and Social Networks in Gay Civil Rights Acceptance and Voting Behavior (Becker and Scheufele 2011) Variable15-25 Acceptance of Homosexuality 26 and older Acceptance of Homosexuality <35 Support for Gay Marriage 35-50 Support for Gay Marriage >50 Support for Gay Marriage Female+++++++ Age--- Conservatism-------- Religiosity--- Evangelical---- Social Network++ Education++ +++ Deliberative Engagement +++ Sample size1674547158231340

25 Heterosexuals’ Attitudes Toward Transgender People: Feeling Thermometer Scores (Norton and Herek 2012) VariableDirection of Relation Female++ Education++ Anti-egalitarianism-- Gender binary beliefs- Authoritarianism- Female x Religiosity--- Attitudes toward gay men+++ Sample size2281

26 Cohort and Tolerance Source: Robert Andersen and Tina Fetner, Cohort Differences in Tolerance of Homosexuality

27 Public Opinion and Economic Development Source: Robert Andersen and Tina Fetner, Economic Inequality and Intolerance: Attitudes toward Homosexuality in 35 Democracies

28 Approval of Homosexuality in the Americas (Encarnacion 2011) Percentage of Respondents Demonstrating High Tolerance of Homosexuality Above 50%50-40%40-30%30-20%20-10%10-0% ArgentinaBrazilColombiaBoliviaEl SalvadorHaiti CanadaCosta RicaDominican Republic GuatemalaJamaica USMexicoEcuadorGuyana UruguayNicaraguaPanamaHonduras VenezualaParaguayTrinidad & Tobago Peru


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