1. Economic Impact of DR-CAFTA on Southern Agriculture: The Case of Sugar P. Lynn Kennedy Louisiana State University

2. Price and Quantity Impacts of Alternative Import Scenarios Increased U.S.Domestic World BeetCaneU.S. Imports fromPrice Production Consumption 2003/04 Base$/MTCents/lb$/MTCents/lbMT Base455.2520.66163.767.434415.683716.328946.00 100,000441.5020.03163.917.444369.753700.348984.47 500,000390.2417.71164.467.464190.483637.179141.02 1,000,000333.5415.13165.167.493972.403557.839343.80 2,000,000241.6510.96166.577.563560.263400.989775.36 3,089,000168.157.63168.157.633147.983232.9710283.68

3. Lost Value of Sugar Beet and Cane Production from Import Scenarios Import Scen. Domestic PriceBeet Prod.Cane Prod. Total Value (Beet) Total Value (Cane) Total Value (All)Lost Value TMT$/MTMT $$$$ Base455.254,416,0003,716,0002,010,384,0001,691,709,0003,702,093,0000 100441.504,370,0003,700,0001,929,355,0001,633,550,0003,562,905,000-139,188,000 500390.244,190,0003,637,0001,635,105,6001,419,302,8803,054,408,480-647,684,520 1,000333.543,972,0003,558,0001,324,820,8801,186,735,3202,511,556,200-1,190,536,800 2,000241.653,560,0003,401,000860,274,000821,851,6501,682,125,650-2,019,967,350 3,089168.153,148,0003,233,000529,336,200543,628,9501,072,965,150-2,629,127,850

4. Sectoral Effects of 1,000 TMT Raw Sugar Imports. Industry SectorDirect Effect ($)Indirect Effect ($)Induced Effect ($)Total Effect ($) Ag, Forestry, Fish & Hunting0451,068,80015,176,987466,245,760 Mining027,569,8507,700,05935,269,908 Utilities063,910,48819,945,04083,855,528 Construction011,486,9656,336,27917,823,244 Manufacturing1,190,536,800408,828,512160,610,5121,755,963,136 Wholesale Trade0106,511,76048,103,404154,615,168 Transportation & Warehousing0196,837,55236,631,224233,468,784 Retail trade017,223,22081,435,53698,658,752 Information033,502,78052,084,83685,587,616 Finance & insurance079,682,472107,855,192187,537,664 Real estate & rental0172,195,42466,935,436239,130,864 Professional- scientific & tech svcs060,521,75240,327,260100,849,008 Management of companies050,021,04814,693,94264,714,992 Administrative & waste services029,506,90625,337,46854,844,372 Educational svcs0565,54513,026,99613,592,541 Health & social services0104,529101,431,608101,536,136 Arts- entertainment & recreation04,264,93614,919,59919,184,536 Accomodation & food services010,676,03241,558,85252,234,884 Other services028,499,64441,521,00470,020,648 Government047,996,80093,236,128141,232,928 Total1,190,536,8001,800,975,015988,867,3623,980,379,441

5. Aggregate Output Effects from Various Raw Sugar Import Scenarios Import ScenariosDirect EffectIndirect EffectInduced EffectTotal Effect TMT$$$$ 100139,188,000210,555,000115,610,000465,354,000 500647,684,520979,779,351537,970,7232,165,434,540 1,0001,190,536,8001,800,975,015988,867,3623,980,379,441 2,0002,019,967,3503,055,685,1551,677,797,0326,753,452,011 3,0892,629,127,8503,977,191,9712,183,770,1408,790,090,289

6. Import Levels Necessary to Induce Forfeitures in Cane Producing States Increased U.S.Dom. World BeetCaneU.S. Imports fromPrice Prod. Con. 2003/04 Base$/MTcents/lb$/MTcents/lbMT LA Forf.368,000406.4518.44164.277.454248.763657.989089.14 Texas Forf.439,000397.6218.04164.377.464216.973646.469116.87 HI/PR Forf.446,000396.8018.00164.387.464214.323645.349119.55 Florida Forf.495,000390.8317.73164.457.464192.243637.919139.23

7. Thank you!