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NJ Treasury Economic Outlook Conference November 20, 2013 Alexander Heil, PhD Chief Economist Planning & Regional Development Department The Port Authority.

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Presentation on theme: "NJ Treasury Economic Outlook Conference November 20, 2013 Alexander Heil, PhD Chief Economist Planning & Regional Development Department The Port Authority."— Presentation transcript:

1 NJ Treasury Economic Outlook Conference November 20, 2013 Alexander Heil, PhD Chief Economist Planning & Regional Development Department The Port Authority of New York & New Jersey The opinions expressed in this presentation reflect the views of the author and not necessarily those of the Port Authority of NY & NJ.

2 Presentation Content Slide 2 Port Authority Economic Region County-level Recession Experience Regional County & Industry Projections Based on Q Baseline Forecast Q&A

3 18-County Port Authority Region Slide 3

4 Employment Recoveries in NY & NJ Counties Slide 4 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

5 County Level Recession Experience 2009 Q1 2009Q22009Q32009Q42010Q12010Q22010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q Q3 2013Q4 Port Authority Area New York City Bergen County Essex County Hudson County Middlesex County Monmouth County Morris County Passaic County Somerset County Union County Slide 5 TODAY Q1/2009 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

6 PA Region Employment by Sector Slide 6 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

7 NJ Counties Employment by Sector Slide 7 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

8 County-level Employment Projections Slide Q32014Q42015Q42016Q42017Q42018Q42019Q42020Q4 Port Authority Area New York City Bergen County Essex County Hudson County Middlesex County Monmouth County Morris County Passaic County Somerset County Union County Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

9 Industrial Sector Forecast Slide Q32014Q42015Q42016Q42017Q42018Q42019Q42020Q4 Total Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation, warehousing & utilities Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific, and technical services Management of companies and enterprises Administrative and waste services Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services, except public administration Federal government State and local government Office using employment Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

10 Forecast Summary [as of Oct 2013] US Real GDP [%] Unempl [%] Year Treasury PA Real GRP NJ Counties GRP China Real GDP [%] Eurozone Real GDP [%] World Real GDP [%] Slide 10 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

11 Economic Outlook – November 2013 Any Questions? Alexander Heil, PhD Chief Economist Planning & Regional Development Department The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey 233 Park Avenue South, 11th Floor, New York, NY Slide 11


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