1. China goes global: A comparative study of Chinese hydropower dams in Africa and Asia Project introduction Kick-off workshop for ESRC project ES/J01320X/1 8-9 November 2012 SOAS, London Dr. Frauke Urban

2. Content 1.Introduction 2.Project objectives 3. Team set-up 4. Management scheme 5. Selection of case studies 6. Methodologies (to be continued on 9 Nov) 7. Time schedule (to be continued 9 Nov) 8. Planned outputs 9. Q & A

3. 1. Introduction “China goes global: A comparative study of Chinese hydropower dams in Africa and Asia” ( ES/J01320X/1) Funded by the UK Economics and Social Research Council ESRC. China’s rapid economic growth has created a series of pressures, such as depletion of scarce domestic resources. The country is therefore engaging more closely with a number of low and middle income countries (LMICs) in Asia and Africa. Access to overseas natural resources, new markets and technological advances, have made China the world’s largest player in large hydropower dam projects. This is usually backed by state finance and state-owned enterprises.

4. 2. Project objectives The aim of the project is to conduct the first comparative analysis of the social, economic, environmental and political impacts of Chinese hydropower dam projects in low and middle income countries. This provides new knowledge for the social sciences in a relatively under-researched and emerging field. It could also inform corporate behaviour in the hydropower sector and shape emerging national and international policy responses. The study will include fieldwork in Cambodia, Malaysia, Ghana, Nigeria as well as China. The chosen dam sites are the Kamchay Dam in Cambodia, the Bakun Dam in Malaysia (Borneo), the Bui Dam in Ghana, and the Zamfara Dam in Nigeria.

5. 3. Team set-up Principal Investigator: Frauke Urban (UK) Project Manager / Research Fellow: to be recruited within next few weeks UK team: Frauke Urban, Giles Mohan, Laurence Smith, Project Manager / Research Fellow China team: May Tan-Mullins (lead), Wang Yu Cambodia team: Sour Kim, Phalla Chem Ghana team: Paul Yankson, Alex Asiedu, Kwadwo Owusu Malaysia team: Adam Novak, Chris Napoli Nigeria team: Felix Olorunfemi International Rivers: Grace Mang, Peter Bosshard

6. 4. Management scheme Principal Investigator (Frauke Urban) to oversee overall project & research Project Manager / Research Fellow to be in regular contact with project team, handle contract, budget and management issues, handle organisation of forthcoming events like workshops, conduct fieldwork in all countries together with local country teams & May Tan-Mullins Principal China team investigator: May Tan-Mullins to conduct fieldwork in all countries together with local country teams, Project Manager / Research Fellow, Giles Mohan and Frauke Urban International Rivers to provide background information to dams and facilitate making relevant contacts

7. 4. Management scheme Joint fieldwork: Cambodia team / Ghana team / Malaysia team / Nigeria team to conduct fieldwork in their countries, as far as possible together with May Tan-Mullins and Project Manager / Research Fellow Giles Mohan to contribute to fieldwork in Ghana and Nigeria Frauke Urban to contribute to fieldwork in Cambodia and Malaysia Additional work in China by May Tan-Mullins and Wang Yu Additional work in UK by UK team Laurence Smith to lead work on Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) International Rivers to assist case study research when needed

8. 5. Selection of case studies The dynamics of China’s engagement is driven by different motives in Asia and in Africa. SE Asia / Greater Mekong Sub-Region: in some cases electricity exports to China, which involves a range of Chinese provincial power providers; strengthening China’s position in regional governance through trade agreements with neighbouring countries which are linked to dam-building Africa: electricity exports to China not possible; investment is driven by construction contracts, overseas employment for Chinese, electricity and water access for Chinese industries, particularly in the energy-hungry resource sector. China adopts different approaches in more stable states (e.g. Ghana, Cambodia) than in authoritarian and fragile states (e.g. Myanmar, Sudan)

9. 5. Selection of case studies To understand better what drives Chinese overseas dam development and its impacts, we need a comparative study across different regions. Selection of 4 case studies - 2 for Africa (Ghana, Nigeria) and 2 for Asia (Cambodia, Malaysia) - each of which has been chosen for representing a specific approach to Chinese dam building. Comparing different actors and different approaches that are taken in terms of the type of contract, financial agreements, social and environmental impacts, and alignment to standards. Each case study involves the Chinese as dam developers, focuses on dams of more than 50MW, where construction has recently been completed or is in progress, and where access to the sites and to local communities is possible.

10. 5. Selection of case studies Case study Africa 1: Ghana, Bui Dam: Generating capacity of 400MW Costs estimated at US$620 million The financiers are China’s ExIm Bank and the Ghana Government while the builder is Sinohydro and the developer is the Ghana Government. There are a range of environmental and social issues related to environmental protection, climate change and affected local people. The case study has been chosen for its archetypal Sinohydro-ExIm Bank arrangement and its socio- environmental impacts.

11. 5. Selection of case studies Case study Africa 2: Nigeria, Zamfara Dam: Generating capacity of 100MW Estimated cost of US$160 million The financiers are ExIm Bank, while the builders, developers and contractors are China Geo-Engineering Corporation. Environmental and social issues are uncertain at this stage. The case study has been chosen for its novel arrangement with a Chinese firm other than Sinohydro.

12. 5. Selection of case studies Case study Asia 1: Cambodia, Kamchay Dam: Generating capacity of 193MW. Estimated cost of US$280 million The financiers are ExIm Bank, while the builders, developers and contractors are Sinohydro. There are a range of reported environmental and social issues related to EIA approvals, environmental protection and affected local people. The case study has been chosen for its Sinohydro-ExIm Bank arrangement, socio-environmental impacts and potential for electricity export to China.

13. 5. Selection of case studies Case study Asia 2: Malaysia, Bakun Dam (Borneo): Generating capacity of 2,400MW Estimated cost of US$1,400 million The financiers are ExIm Bank, while the builders, developers and contractors are Sinohydro, Northwest Hydro Consulting Engineers, CHECC, Sime Darby Group and WCT Engineering Bhd. There are a range of reported environmental and social issues related to resettlement of indigenous people and environmental concerns. The case study has been chosen for its novel arrangement between Chinese and Malaysian firms and its socio-environmental impacts.

14. 6. Methodologies 1.Theoretical framework Most work on China as a rising power and its impacts on low and middle income countries has so far been rather speculative, economistic and Africa-centric. Environmental (and social) issues have often been omitted. This project aims to provide an empirical grounding, address environmental and social issues and focus both on Asia and Africa. This is done by using two theoretical frameworks: the political ecology framework and the Asian Drivers framework.

15. 6. Methodologies 1.Theoretical framework The political ecology framework provides a basis for analysing the conflicts caused by the various forms of control over the access to natural resources such as water and energy. It addresses the unequal distribution of the costs and benefits of environmental change. This has impacts on social and economic inequalities. This in turn has political implications as power relations are affected and often altered.

16. 6. Methodologies 1.Theoretical framework The Asian Drivers framework assesses China’s direct and indirect impacts as a Rising Power and its channels of interaction with low and middle income countries. Channels: aid, trade, investment, global governance, individuals/migrants and environment Complementary and competitive impacts / positive and negative impacts Direct and indirect impacts

17. 6. Methodologies 1.Theoretical framework Taken together this framework of the ‘Political Ecology of the Asian Drivers’ enables us to address the four key issues of our research: How Chinese investment strategies in the hydropower sector are coordinated vis-à-vis low and middle income countries Their impacts on local social and environmental conditions in recipient countries The effects on local and regional governance The implications for both UK hydropower firms and OECD aid programmes.

18. 6. Methodologies Rising Powers Framework for assessing China‘s engagement in Low and Middle Income Countries and its impacts – Rising Powers project 1

19. 6. Methodologies 2. Research questions Theme 1: Organisation and motives of Chinese hydropower actors Research Question 1: How do the motives and organisation of Chinese firms involved in hydropower development shape their relations with LMICs? What organisations are involved and what roles do the Chinese state and government authorities play? How does China’s domestic development and environmental record shape its practices in overseas dam projects? How does China justify its status as one of the last funders of mega-dams in the world and how does this affect global dam- building and infrastructure projects in LMICs?

20. 6. Methodologies 2. Research questions Theme 2: Local and national impacts Research Question 2: What are the direct and indirect social and environmental impacts of Chinese hydropower projects at the local and national scale in LMICs? How are local communities around the dam sites affected? How does the energy infrastructure that is built affect national development? What regional ecological, economic and political impacts do the dams have? How do Chinese actors comply with social and environmental guidelines and practices such as EIAs and the best practice guidelines of the World Commission of Dams (WCD)?

21. 6. Methodologies 2. Research questions Theme 3: Governance implications Research Question 3: How are Chinese hydropower projects shaped by multi-level governance structures and reciprocally how do hydropower projects modify existing governance arrangements? How are negotiations between the Chinese and LMICs clients conducted? What role do international norms play in shaping these negotiations? How effective are local and national governments in policing environmental laws and monitoring other aspects of the projects? What role do national and international CSOs play in terms of monitoring the activities?

22. 6. Methodologies 2. Research questions Theme 4: UK and OECD interests Research Question 4: What are the implications of enhanced Chinese hydropower activity for UK firms and the wider context of the UK aid sector? What competitive or complementary pressures do the Chinese firms release in the UK hydropower value chain? Does the Chinese ‘aid’ model enhance the competitiveness of Chinese firms vis-à-vis others? How does China’s bilateralism affect OECD goals of aid coordination and transparency? To what extent can debates around hydropower contribute to sustainable and ‘responsible’ global action?

23. 6. Methodologies 3. Methods A multi-sited, comparative case study approach: 4 case studies as discussed before Per country: 20 community interviews, 20 interviews with Chinese firms, financiers, policy-makers, African/Asian policy-makers, NGOs, 5 interviews with UK firms and aid organisations, in total 180 interviews across 4 countries Stakeholder mapping + 4 focus group consultations + analysis of project documents (including EIAs) + analysis of CSR strategies + analysis of firm strategies

24. 6. Methodologies 3. Methods Comprehensive stakeholder mapping: requires several stakeholder mappings at the national level, the Chinese side, and the UK side. Net-Map approach for the stakeholder mapping to determine key stakeholders, direct and indirect links to other stakeholders and power relations. Suggested software: Visualyzer Focus group consultations with key experts as well as local communities Categorising and coding the sources of the interviews and focus group consultation in NVivio, similar approach across all 4 countries.

25. 6. Methodologies 3. Methods Interviews to be semi-structured, in-depths interviews Consistent interview questions for all 4 countries to be agreed by the project team Interviews to be recorded with audio-recording device All interviews to be transcribed If interview is in Chinese or local language, translation of transcripts into English More discussion about methodology tomorrow

26. 7. Time schedule Time schedule and methodologies to be discussed in more detail tomorrow 3 phases, 36 months until October 2015 1- Inception phase: 15 October 2012 – 15 February 2013 Kick-off workshop on 8th and 9th November 2012 in London to develop a consistent methodology and prepare for the fieldwork phase Visit by UK based researchers (RF) and May Tan-Mullins to Cambodia, Ghana, Malaysia, Nigeria for feasibility studies – team building, as well as scoping and making decisions for stakeholder mapping, focus group consultation and interviews

27. 7. Time schedule 2 - Fieldwork phase: 15 February 2013 – 15 July 2014: Field work in the four selected countries: The in-country researchers in Cambodia, Ghana, Malaysia and Nigeria to work closely with the UK team and the China team for the fieldwork and analysis phase. Multi-level stakeholder mapping to identify key stakeholders engaged in Chinese overseas hydropower projects for each of the four countries. At least 1 focus group consultation as a preparation for the interviews.

28. 7. Time schedule 2 - Fieldwork phase: 15 February 2013 – 15 July 2014: Conducting in-depths interviews with key stakeholders in each of the four case study locations. Key stakeholder groups include: 1. Chinese financiers, contractors, developers, regulators (some interviews in China will be necessary too); 2. National and local policy-makers and authorities, local partner firms, workers and communities in the host countries; 3. International development actors such as DFID, World Bank and EU operating in the host countries and international hydropower firms, including UK firms.

29. 7. Time schedule 2 - Fieldwork phase: 15 February 2013 – 15 July 2014: Per country: 20 community interviews, 20 interviews with Chinese firms, financiers, policy-makers, African/Asian policy-makers, NGOs, 5 interviews with UK firms and aid organisations. UK team will conduct an analysis of project documents, analysis of CSR strategies and analysis of firm strategies for each case study country.

30. 7. Time schedule 3 - Analysis and dissemination phase: 15 July 2014 – 14 October 2015: Evaluation and analysis of fieldwork data from stakeholder mapping, focus groups and interviews. Qualitative data analysis involves categorising and coding the sources in NVivio as a means of comparing and contrasting interpretations of events. Quantitative data will be used in addition where appropriate (e.g. data from IEA, International Rivers data base etc).

31. 7. Time schedule 3 - Analysis and dissemination phase: 15 July 2014 – 14 October 2015: 5 dissemination workshops in the UK/China and Cambodia, Ghana, Malaysia, Nigeria aiming to bring together Chinese dam builders, local/national policymakers, international development actors and UK/international hydropower firms to present the findings and stimulate a discussion with key corporate and regulatory sectors. Writing policy briefs in English, Chinese / local languages, writing articles for peer-reviewed international journals (co-authored by project members) and sharing findings on the project website.

32. 8. Planned outputs 5 Dissemination workshops About 8 co-authored articles covering the theoretical, methodological and empirical findings for the following journals or similar: Development and Change, Energy Policy, Global Environmental Change, Journal of Environmental Management, World Development. A book about the political economy of China in the developing world, including a comparative analysis from the case studies, and conclusions regarding the future of 'South-South' cooperation. Possible Outlet: Earthscan or Routledge. Website in English and Chinese 2 policy briefs in English and Chinese / local languages Conference presentations

33. Questions? Suggestions?