1. BRUCE WALTON ROAD SAFETY ANALYSIS

2. Breaking Bad: Analysis methods best avoided Bruce Walton Road Safety Analysis

3. The perils of counting YearKilled 2010 1,850 2011 1,901 2012 1,754 2013 1,713 2014 1,775

4. “Significant” “1,754 fatalities in road accidents in 2012 … is the lowest number of deaths since records began and is a return to the long term downward trend” “1,775 reported road deaths in 2014, an increase of 4 per cent compared with 2013 … this rise is not statistically significant”

5. STATS19 is a sample

6. Meaning - or understanding? Year Killed casualties per Million Population 201030.6 201131.2 201228.3 201327.5 201428.3

7. From national to local … Table RAS41004 Reported KSI casualty rate per million population by local authority

8. Rate per million population/ Percentage 2014 percentage change over: 2005-09 ONS CodeRegion/Local Authorityaverage201020112012201320142013average E08000014Sefton34227131632533734421 E08000013St. Helens368254408397414378-93 E08000007Stockport27420022717316122338-19 E08000008Tameside297267260213249240-4-19 E08000009Trafford26923020622315219427-28 E06000007Warrington5355185265453903921-27 E08000010Wigan339202263232203193-5-43 E08000015Wirral52335040630939343611-17 E12000003Yorkshire and The Humber586449448458449445-24 E08000016Barnsley4862943494113443450-29 E08000032Bradford5004064244213613867-23 E08000033Calderdale5634004434684364779-15 E08000017Doncaster503513489386389355-9-29 E06000011East Riding of Yorkshire706579541551574558-3-21 E06000010Kingston upon Hull, City of478447443505478446-7 Wirral Metropolitan Borough Casualties on roads 2010-2014: 4,044 Population 2013: 320,295 % of casualties who are residents: 89.6%

9. Rate per million population/ Percentage 2014 percentage change over: 2005-09 ONS Code Region/Local Authorityaverage201020112012201320142013average E12000007 London476369348363276254-8-47 E09000002 Barking and Dagenham337267262247232202-13-40 E09000003 Barnet431379394308355261-26-39 E09000004 Bexley402298212235131100-24-75 E09000005 Brent412327261273265 0-36 E09000006 Bromley462288255287220156-29-66 E09000007 Camden556476425507457298-35-46 E09000001 City of London4,8473,5114,4557,6287,8456,814-1341 E09000008 Croydon415252311290190189-55 E09000009 Ealing418267204258237 0-43 E09000010 Enfield377332319271225160-29-57 E09000011 Greenwich52245540228110614940-71 E09000012 Hackney599470476583322228-29-62 E09000013 Hammersmith and Fulham64543644744529738730-40 E09000014 Haringey415351322413402318-21-23 City of London Casualties on roads 2010-2014: 1,949 Population 2013: 7,648 % of casualties who are residents: 1.2%

10. Rate per million population/ Percentage 2014 percentage change over: 2005-09 ONS CodeRegion/Local Authorityaverage201020112012201320142013average E06000044Portsmouth478439706595559464-17-3 E06000038Reading292259352255320274-15-6 E06000039Slough392313357289364339-7-14 E06000045Southampton406513654459508506025 E10000030Surrey5234615135025206492524 E06000037West Berkshire49339049851135443723-11 E10000032West Sussex605466563515533650227 E06000040Windsor and Maidenhead45132241641136940710-10 E06000041Wokingham337227279243336308-8-9 E12000009South West4503723683883693967-12 E06000022Bath and North East Somerset300217124186289269-7-10 E06000028Bournemouth491458433578381366-4-25 E06000023Bristol, City of37129536734024227112-27 E06000052Cornwall456370413396406464142 E10000008Devon394389311409 443813 Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead Casualties on roads 2010-2014: 7,648 Population 2013: 146,335 % of casualties who are residents: 46.8%

11. Can you ignore population?

12. Smaller and smaller … “There are concerns that these three Post Code Areas are represented highly in so many catagories [sic]”

13. Trying to be too clever?