1. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Market Outlook May 16, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use 20122013201420152016 Area Planted(mil. acres)97.395.490.688.093.6 Yield(bu./acre)123.1158.1171.0168.4168.0 Production(mil. bu.)10,75513,82914,21613,60114,430 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)9898211,2321,7311,803 Imports(mil. bu.)16036325540 Total Supply(mil. bu.)11,90414,68615,47915,38716,273 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)4,3155,0405,3245,2505,550 Ethanol(mil. bu.)4,6415,1245,2005,2505,300 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3971,3691,360 1,370 Exports(mil. bu.)7301,9201,8641,7251,900 Total Use(mil. bu.)11,08313,45413,74813,58514,120 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)8211,2321,7311,8032,153 Season-Average Price($/bu.)6.894.463.703.603.35 Source: USDA-WAOB

3. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 20122013201420152016 Area Planted(mil. acres)77.276.883.382.782.2 Yield(bu./acre)40.044.047.548.046.7 Production(mil. bu.)3,0423,3583,9273,9293,800 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)16914192191400 Imports(mil. bu.)41723330 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,2523,5704,0524,1504,230 Crush(mil. bu.)1,6891,7341,8731,8801,915 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.)105107145129125 Exports(mil. bu.)1,3171,6381,8431,7401,885 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,1113,4783,8623,7503,925 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)14192191400305 Season-Average Price($/bu.)14.4013.0010.108.859.10 Source: USDA-WAOB

4. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Prospective Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

5. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Prospective Plantings Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres

6. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS

7. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS

8. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

9. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

10. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

11. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

12. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

13. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

14. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

15. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

16. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME, as of 5/16/16

17. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

18. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Stocks

19. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 5/16/2016 3.71 3.78 3.92

20. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 5/16/2016 9.05 9.96 9.17

21. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2015/16 Crop Margins

22. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2016/17 Crop Margins

23. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

24. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

25. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/