1. PROBABILITY How to win at Monopoly

2. Flipping a Coin Will a flipped coin be HEADS or TAILS? Can’t know for sure! Is one more LIKELY?

3. What is a probability? Probability tells you how LIKELY an event is Fraction 0/2 - Never 1/2 - Half the time 2/2 - ALL the time Probabilities aren’t certain They’re PREDICTIONS

4. Rolling a Die Six sides Each side is JUST as likely! We can think about different EVENTS: Rolling a 1 Rolling a 2 Rolling a 1 OR a 2 What else?

5. Rolling TWO Dice How many combinations? 6? 12? 36? Is it more likely to roll a 2 or a 12? Is it more likely to roll a 2 or a 4? What number is it most likely to roll?

6. Experiment! Try rolling the die More experiments -> Higher accuracy! We’ll plot the results when you’re done

7. What else affects probability? Playing Cards How well the deck is shuffled? Are all the cards there? Basketball Free Throws How good is the player? How tired is the player? Weather Where are you? Are there Hurricanes? Tornados? Polar vortices? What time of the year is it?

8. Combining Probabilities Probability of rolling a 2 OR a 3? Add probabilities 0.028 + 0.056 = 0.084 = 8.4 % Probability of Rolling a 3 THEN a 5? Multiply probabilities 0.056 * 0.111 = 0.0062 = 0.62% Probability of rolling a 4 THEN rolling a 6 or a 7? Multiply THEN add (Probability of 4) x (Probability of 6 + Probability of 7) 0.083*(0.139 + 0.167) = 0.025 = 2.5%

9. Monopoly Which properties are most landed on? What are the easiest numbers to roll? What square is most landed on?

10. Probability from Jail Space PurpleOrangeRed 13.9 %38.9%5.6% 2.8% 5.6%8.3% 11.1% 13.9% 16.7%13.9%11.1% 5.6% 8.3%