1. Page 1© Crown copyright Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS): Technology transfer and collaboration in developing countries Joseph D. Intsiful SCAT Conference, 11 -12 April 2007, Geneva

2. Background

3. Page 3© Crown copyright RCMs simulate current climate more realistically Patterns of present-day winter precipitation over Great Britain

4. Page 4© Crown copyright What is a Regional Climate Model?  Comprehensive physical high resolution (~50km) climate model  Covers a limited area of the globe  Usually includes the atmosphere and land surface components of the climate system  Contains representations of the key processes within the climate system (e.g., cloud, radiation, rainfall, soil hydrology).

5. Page 5© Crown copyright What is PRECIS?  Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies  Regional climate modelling (RCM) system that can be applied to any area of the globe  Generate detailed climate predictions

6. Page 6© Crown copyright The components of PRECIS  PC version of latest Hadley Centre RCM  resolution 50km (25km for small areas)  User interface to set up RCM experiments  Data processing and display software  Boundary conditions  Training course and materials  Support

7. Page 7© Crown copyright What PRECIS can deliver  PRECIS can provide:  climate scenarios for any region  an estimate of uncertainty due to different emissions  an estimate of uncertainty due to climate variability  Data available from PRECIS  comprehensive for atmosphere and land-surface  grid-scale box average quantities  maximum time resolution one hour

8. Capacity building and collaborations

9. Page 9© Crown copyright Training course and supporting material  Training in the use of PRECIS focuses on:  Background science including uncertainties  Interpretation of PRECIS results by regional experts  Construction of regional climate change scenarios  Building capacity in countries/regions using PRECIS  PRECIS is supplied with:  a handbook covering the background science, system description and the uses and limitations of PRECIS  a technical manual explaining technical details about the system and how install and to use it

10. Page 10© Crown copyright PRECIS Workshops and Projects  Over 200 trained users from over 60 countries  Extensive regional networks in developing countries across the globe  Projects -focus (Belize – CCCCC, India – IITM, China – CAAS, Cuba –INSMET, Brazil – CPTEC, Uganda – START)  International networks (UNFCCC, UNDP-NCSP, UNDP-CRMI)  Strengthened scientific capacities in developing countries for participation in international projects (AMMA, WAMME, )

11. Page 11© Crown copyright PRECIS Workshops and Projects  Workshops (new) – Central Africa, North Africa, Pacific islands  Workshops (follow-up) – South America, South/SE Asia  Projects in India (DEFRA), China (DEFRA and OSI), Central America (UNDP), Brazil (FCO): proposals for Africa scenarios and adaptation Outlook

12. Page 12© Crown copyright PRECIS user network Regional focal points and data distribution centres Africa  African Cent. for Met. Appl. to Dev. (ACMAD, Niger)  Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMA)  University of Cape Town (ENGEO) Asia  Malaysian Met. Dept. (MMD)  Indian Inst. of Trop. Met.  Chinese Acad. of Agric. Sci. (CAAS) South America  CPTEC - Brazil  CIMA – Argentina Caribbean and Central America  Caribbean Com. Clim. Ch. Cent. (CCCCC) (Belize)  Cuban Inst. of Met. (INSMET) Euro-Asia  Turkish Meteorological Agency (TMA)

13. Selected tools and applications in impacts studies

14. Page 14© Crown copyright Estimation of current temperature related climate extremes over China (1961~1990) Days with T>25 o C Max. days with T<0 o C 6 Days with T> 5 o C SimulatedObserved  Spatio-temporal patterns of current temperature related extremes well simulated

15. Page 15© Crown copyright Estimation of current precipitation related climate extremes over China (1961~1990) SimulatedObserved  Spatio-temporal patterns of current precipitation related extremes well simulated Rainfall ≥ 20mm Max. rainfall in 5 cons. days (Rainfall ≥ 1mm)/wet days

16. Page 16© Crown copyright Validation over south Asian countries Estimation of extreme monsoon precipitation over the Jhelum River basin (Pakistan) in September 1990 Monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh Trends in maximum temperature over Bangladesh  High performance in estimating monsoon events over spatio- temporal scales  Provides reliable hydro-climate estimates for hydrological modelling in the Jhelum basin

17. Page 17© Crown copyright Application over India Ratio of simulated to observed mean yield for the baseline simulation with T opt =28 o C (left). Percentage change in mean yield for 2071-2100 relative to baseline:TOL-28 (bottom left) & TOL-36 (bottom right). Over 70% reduction in some areas.

18. Page 18© Crown copyright Tracking of pressure systems. Tool for investigating storms & extreme events. Jamaica Cuba Haiti Representation over small island states Web interface for the PRECIS online access system Data provision and analysis system for Caribbean and Central American region

19. Page 19© Crown copyright Summary: PRECIS  PRECIS provides a means for generating an accurate and consistent set of high resolution regional climates  PRECIS provides an affordable system of tools for developing countries to generate their own regional climate scenarios  Can be set up by the user over any area of the globe  Used for vulnerability and adaptation studies and climate research

20. Page 20© Crown copyright Summary: PRECIS  Provide scientific capacities in both developing and developed world through workshops  Provide efficient scientific and technical support/services to various users  Extensive network of global PRECIS users  Established and strengthened South-South collaboration among users in regions of the developing world  Established and strengthened North-South collaboration between UK and developing countries (joint projects: DFID, Defra, AIACC, START)