1. Integrated Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) in the Cat Ba Biosphere Reserve: a pilot case study in Phu Long commune, Hai Phong city, Vietnam By Than Thi Hien (MCD), Jonas Gunnarsson (DEEP, Stockholm University) Nguyen Thi Tuyet Lan (HACEM), Nguyen Thi Thu (IMER), Hoang Van Thap (Cat Ba National Park) et al

2. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Presentation outline: ERA Introduction ERA pilot case study in Phu Long, Cat Ba Assessment methods: The TRIAD i.e. an integrated ERA based on 3 lines of evidence (Chemistry, Ecology, Social-economics) Initial results Work in progress Lessons learned and recommendations

3. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) ERA: Introduction What is ERA ? Ecological Risk Assessment Tools for evaluating potential human effects From past or future actions to living organisms and their ecosystems Why do an ERA ? Environmental monitoring Decision making Multi-stakeholders Social Economics Environmental (ERA)

4. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) ERA framework (USEPA, 1992) Management and remediation Risk Analysis Exposure and Effect Assessment Sources identification and problem formulation

5. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Cat Ba Biosphere Reserve The study area on Phu Long commune, Cat Hai district, Hai Phong city Cat Ba Island

6. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Case study: Phu Long Commune, Cat Ba Biosphere Reserve, Hai Phong city  Coastal commune (525 households), west of Cat Ba islands  Main livelihoods: fisheries capture and aquaculture, largely depending on the environment and natural resources  Mangroves ecosystems (700ha)

7. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Research objectives Evaluate the level of risk posed by anthropogenic pollution affecting Cat Ba mangrove forests natural environment and shrimp aquaculture environment as an evidence-based study serving for management. Recommend lesson learnt to help local managers to improve resources management in the area. Through the implementation of a case-study using ERA and the TRIAD, MCD, IMER, HACEM, Stockholm University and local partners are providing ecological risk management tools for a more sustainable development in Cat Ba and other places in Vietnam.

8. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Conceptual model Source of stress Stressor Endpoints to protect Waste from aquaculture activities and households Coliform Amonia Mangrove ecosystem Waste Extensive aquaculture: shrimp & molluscs Aquaculture & natural fish / shrimp stocks Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, water quality Other pollutants from boats and harbour Oil and Heavy metals Plastics Measurement Endpoint

9. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Three independent ‘lines of evidence’ (LOE) Each LOE = 1 leg of the TRIAD Integrated assessment and Uncertainty analyses The “ TRIAD “ Method Source : Jensen et al. LIBERATION EU project, 2006

10. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Main advantages of the revised TRIAD 1) Calculates risk values, instead of + and – 2) Uses a step-by-step ”tiered approach”: Provides a more cost-efficient ERA method 3) Development of a decision support system for sustainable management by integrating data from chemistry, toxicology and ecology

11. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Integrative ERA method: Case study in Phu Long Ecology Physico- Chemistry Socio- economics Here we add a new element, i.e. we also use a social-economic leg in our TRIAD

12. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) TRIAD:  3 lines of evidence (LOE)  Collect data and measure parameters from 3 LOE at research sites.  Scale the measurement results from 0-1 (with technical support from DSE, Stockholm Univ)  Calculating the ecological risks at the study sites of anthropogenic pollution and thus help policy makers form sustainable recommendations, based on best available science. Socio-economic (MCD) Ecology (IMER) Physical-chemistry (HACEM) The TRIAD in practice in Phu Long

13. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Methodology Proposed risk measurement sites: Site A: extensive aquaculture, mostly shrimp ponds. The ecosystem is not protected strictly but there are not much waste. This is predicted to be at a medium risk. Site B: Cái Viềng gate is the first place to receive substances when the tide rises and the last place that water flows through when the tide falls. This is predicted to be at a lowest risk. Site C: intensive aquaculture and households. This is predicted to be at a high risk. Site D: Reference site (protected area)

14. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Sampling sites

15. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) TRIAD: Three lines of evidence EcologyPhysio- chemistry Socio-economic Biodiversity Number of species BOD, temperatureFish loss Ecosystem functions Primary production Nutrient cycling Dissolved oxygen Nutrients (NH4 +) turbidity Reduced productivity Habitat Mangroves Sea grasses Contaminants (oil, metals) Reduced income for local people Key stone species Mangrove crabs, shrimps, fish Toxicity Biomarkers Increased social conflicts

16. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) TRIAD: Ecology line of evidence End points to protect Measured endpoints Data collections Biodiversity Composition of species,, No. of species, no. of individuals, phytoplanton, zooplantons Benthic organisms Fish larvae Field test and laboratory tests (02 times – rainy and dry seasons) September – November 2012, Literature review, secondary data Key stone species Mortality of species (natural shrimp) Ecosystems functionsSalinity, temperature, Dissolved 0xygen

17. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Ecologicial risks to shrimp and fish larvae community

18. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD)

19. Sampling of benthic macrofauna

20. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Toxicity testing of water collected from the field sites and the ponds

21. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Ecological Results When comparing with studies from 2007 and 2011 the density of zooplankton has decreased 12 times and its diversity has decreased by 50 %. By comparing to the previous studies in neighborhood areas, the benthos community is also much reduced compared to 5 – 20 years ago, with a reduction in both species number and individual density per sample. Overall the biodiversity of phytoplankton, Zooplankton and Benthic invertebrates seem to have decreased dramatically over the last decade. However, due to the fact that there is no long data series (no consistent monitoring program in place) it is not possible to confirm these results statistically.

22. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) TRIAD: Chemistry-physical line of evidence End points to protect Measured endpoints Data collections Water quality TSS (Total Solid Substances) NH4, Coliform, Oxygen BOD Field test and laboratory tests (04 times – rainy and dry seasons) VN standards: National technical regulations on coastal water quality: QCVN 10:2008/BTNMT Sediments: Canada standards (PEL – Probable effect levels), QCVN 43: 2012/BTNMT Contaminants Metals Oils

23. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Physico-chemical LOE HACEM’s chemical monitoring reveal that several chemical variables are exceeding the national technical regulations on coastal water quality: i.e.  Amonium, all values exceed the guidelines except at the control site  Coliforms and TSS (Total suspended solids) generally exceed the guidelines at the most polluted site.  Oil and heavy metals, on the other hand, were generally below the regulations

24. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Example of Chemistry-physical results (NH 4 + )

25. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Socio-economic results Coastal water in Phu Long is seriously contaminated There are 4 pollutant sources: (1) waste from industrial aquaculture (2) waste from daily littering activities of local community (3) waste from maritime activities (4) waste from the estuaries and inland urban areas. Polluted water affects on: (1) economic issues (2) social issues

26. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Socio-economic results (cont.) (1) Sea water pollutions and impacts to the livelihoods (% perceived) :

27. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Average yields and income of aquaculture households in recent 5 years (2007 – 2011)

28. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Average yields and income of fishing households in recent 5 years (2007 – 2011)

29. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Site-specific ERA: The TRIAD approach and multi-criteria decision analysis 29 Combined evaluation of the results from 3 independent LOE indicate a strong evidence (+) of decreased environmental status and of decreased aquaculture and fish yield Integration of data with the TRIAD Chemistry Environmental criteria exceeded Ecology Decreased diversity Socio-economics Decreased income Comment +++ Shrimp aquaculture +++ Fish catch Future steps are now to convert these + into scaled values from 0-1 and obtain actual risk values for each LOE.

30. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) 0-1 effect scale 0: reference or control situation good quality reference samples Monitoring data 1: Maximum effect extrapolation from data of available samples expert judgement / models Work in progress

31. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Work in progress Three technical reports are published All data are currently being processed in a common database Data are being scaled from 0-1 Risk values and uncertainties will be calculated Post-analysis of data will be done to propose a cost-effective ”Tiered approach” that can be used at other contaminated sites in Vietnam ERA guideline report and recommendations will be written

32. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) ERA – lessons learned and recommendations + ERA framework is general, but TRIAD is more site-specific and adaptive + Integrative and interdisciplinary approach (chemistry, ecology, socio-economic) + Long term environmental monitoring system + Integration in the legal framework (e.g. IEA) + Communications between stakeholders

33. Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD) Thank you very much !!!