1. Flexicurity: do they know how to get there? Tito Boeri ( Università Bocconi and Fondazione RDB) ReflecT Conference Tilburg, January 30, 2009

2. Lisbon strategy (2000): “need to improve the adaptability of workers and enterprises.” Integrated Guidelines (2002): “Member States are asked to promote flexibility combined with employment security (…).” 2006 Spring European Council: “need to develop comprehensive policy strategies …. reforming labour market and social policies under an integrated flexicurity approach.” 2007 Recommendations of the Flexicurity Group European Parliament deliberations with the agreement of social partners. Support of the ETUC. Flexicurity is politically correct.

3. Will ever come true? The words of the veteran, Jean-Claude Juncker: “Politicians know what they should do, but they do not know how to be re-elected after they do the things that they know they should do” Do they really know how to do it?

4. Outline Why we need flexicurity. Why we are not getting it. Pros and Cons of two-tier reforms. How to complete the reforms: a tenure track and the wage-productivity link

5. Why flexicurity? Every year in a typical OECD country: 15 percent of jobs destroyed and about the same proportion created a firm with 100 employees has about 30 hirings 30 separations (higher turn-over in services than in manufacturing)

6. Reallocation, growth and security The reallocation of jobs and of workers is associated with productivity gains (up to 50% of productivity gains associated with reallocation) Employment growth is higher in firms with higher productivity growth Process of creative destruction described by Joseph Schumpeter Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, 1942 Problem: workers face important risks

7. How to reconcile reallocation with protection? Two common ways of protecting individuals against the risks of unemployment: – unemployment insurance (UI) – legal restrictions against dismissals (EPL) There exists a clear trade-off between the use of EPL and the use of UI. UI is more mobility friendly than EPL Flexicurity involves high UI and low EPL.

8. Unemployment benefits and job protection in the end of the 90’s The tradeoff

9. A theory for the Flexicurity Tradeoff Value of employment is increasing in UBs (b) and EPL (F) via Nash bargaining (r+ δ ) W = b (1- β) + β y + r F+ δ U Decline in F must be compensated by increase in b (or higher productivity, y)

10. The flexicurity tradeoff at constant productivity b F w 1 w 0

11. Outline Why we need flexicurity. Why we are not getting it. Pros and Cons of two-tier reforms. How to complete the reforms: tenure track and wage setting

12. Reforms of EPL confined to temporary contracts Dual track strategy

13. A “political feasibility” thm Reform at the margin. Leave aside incumbents. New comers are not represented in the political process. But is this dualism transitory or persistent? Is dual track leading to flexicurity or to segregation?

14. The growth of temporary employment in Europe 10 11 12 13 14 15 199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 % of employees with temporary contracts 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 Employment rate EU15 (%) % of employees with temp. contractsEmployment rate EU 15

15. A port of entry?… 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 181920212223242526272829303132333435 France Denmark Netherlands Italy Spain Portugal Age % of employees with temporary contracts

16. … or a dead end? Spain Permanent Contracts Fixed Term Contracts Inactivity Unemployment Permanent Contracts97,21,1 0,7 1,0 Fixed Term Contracts4,882,6 3,5 9,0 Inactivity0,42,4 93,3 3,9 Unemployment2,520,1 10,4 67,0 2003 2004

17. Effects of two-tier systems Radical EPL reforms affect both hiring and separations. Small, if any, effects on employment/unemployment. Transitional dynamics of two-tier reforms is different: under good times a “buffer stock” of “temps” is built-up. Under bad times “temps” are laid-off More elasticity of employment to output in both directions (more jobs created during upturns, more unemployment inflows during downturns) More turnover, accommodated by TEMPs

18. From jobless growth to growthless job creation? Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom 0 1 2 3 4 02468 empl_yearY1 % yearly change in real GDP % yearly change in employment rate apparent elasticity in the US 1994-2005

19. Outline Why we need flexicurity. Why we are not getting it. Pros and Cons of two-tier reforms. How to complete the reforms: a tenure track and the wage-productivity link

20. Do two-tier reforms create political support for radical reforms? Changing majorities but.. Concentration of labor market risk on the temps. More insecurity. Temps in between employment and unemployment: low wages, low on the job training and high insecurity

21. Timing of the radical reform in Spain

22. But Europeans are unhappy… Satisfaction with work or main activity in EU10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19941995199619971998199920002001 years Fully satisfied as a % of respondents Source: ECHP

23. …and crisis is bound to make them even less happy Recessions with many temporary contracts involve larger layoff rates Many workers with temporary contracts are not covered by unemployment insurance And low wages prevent them from getting insurance in financial markets Risk of derailment of reforms

24. How to complete the transition to flexicurity? Difficult to expand UI coverage at low tenures (moral hazard) Better to create tenure track to permanent contracts (no segregation into temporary contracts). And decentralised wage bargaining that rewards productivity rather than simply tenure

25. A tenure track Open-ended contracts involve a gradual buildup of protection (e.g. 15 days of severance every 3 months of tenure) Thus employers are not discouraged from offering opend-ended contracts to new hires and invest in their training Human capital as the best employment protection

26. Any change involves wage losses insofar as wage increases are mostly related to tenure (unconditional wage-tenure profiles,source ECHP) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1234567891011121314151617181920 tenure mean wage GermanyUKFranceItalySpainSweden

27. Final remarks Two-tier reforms as a politically viable strategy to reform labor markets. They temporarily increase the employment content of growth, but create longstanding asymmetries and large unemployment infliws during recessions. Increasing dissatisfaction. Risk of derailment of reforms Segmentation can be reduced by building up consensus for more radical reforms.. if policy- makers know how to do it