1. Food and agriculture perspectives to 2030-2050: challenges ahead. Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù Senior Economist, Global Perspectives Studies team Food and Agriculture organization of the United Nations - Rome Simposio “Acqua, risorsa globale” Politecnico di Torino, 5 May 2016

2. 2 Topics 1. The story of our future 2. Challenges 3.Messages

3. 3 1.The story

4. Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, DVD Edition. Medium Fertility Scenario Population growth Population may grow from 2010 to 2050 up to 2.5 billions (+38%), displaying larger growth rates in less industrialized regions.

5. Population by region Population growth may be particularly strong in Sub-Saharan Africa and lower in East Asia (China)

6. The per capita GDP may keep growing, more doubling by 2050 in industrialized countries or tripling, specifically in Asia and Africa Source: FAO World Agriculture Towards 2030-2050 Per Capita Gross Domestic Product to 2050 (and 2080)

7. Annual growth rates of per capita GDP to 2050 (and 2080) Source: as above It is assumed that the growth rates vary according to the different regions, based on the assumption that less industrialized countries may “import “ know how and benefit from other countries at the “frontier”

8. Based on previous income and population assumptions, to satisfy increasding demand (including bio-fuels) the agricultural production should increase by 60% to 2050. This expansion is not as strong as the one observed in the last fifty years but is still quite significant. Agricultural production requireemnts

9. Land use: retrospective analysis Increasing use of agricultural soil has slowed down in the last ten years, as well as the global deforestation rate. Multiple interpretations may be given, including the fact that land use changes are increasingly difficult for technical, economic, legal and/or institutional reasons. Source: own calculations on FAOSTAT data

10. Source: Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012). Agriculture towards 2050 FAO UN – Rome. http://www.fao.org/docrep/016/ap106e/ap106e.pdf Where agricultural growth may come from by 2050 Given the relative scarcity of natural resources (land and water) agricultural growth should essentially come from increased yields.

11. Land equipped for irrigation: Retrospective analysis and projections Sources: Years 1961-2013: FAOSTAT. Annual growth rate of projections 2014-2050 (0.1%) and max potential to 2050: Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012). Agriculture towards 2050 FAO UN – Rome. http://www.fao.org/docrep/016/ap106e/ap106e.pdf Although areas equipped for irrigation have expanded in the last fifty years (1.2% yearly), further expansion looks more problematic

12. Undernourishment: past, present and future to 2030 and 2050 Source: Years 1990-92 e 2014-16: State of Food Insecurity 2015. FAO UN –Rome, http://www.fao.org/publications/sofi/2014/en/ http://www.fao.org/publications/sofi/2014/en/ Year 2030: Achieving Zero Hunger: FAO UN, IFAD, WFP –Rome http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4951e.pdfhttp://www.fao.org/3/a-i4951e.pdf Year 2050: Agriculture Towards 2050, FAO UN - Rome It is possible that, thanks to income growth and food availability, undernourishment shrink. However, the “Business as Usual” scenario re access to food to 2030 e 2050 would leave large segments of population undernourished.

13. 13 2. Two challenges for achieving zero hunger and sustainable agricultural production. Increasing food needs will have to be satisfied by addressing two key challenges, that our “development paradigm” will have to deal with: a)Inequality b)Climate change

14. a. Increasing inequality? (1) Our economic systems embed income concentration mechanisms. Income concentration genrates wealth concentration that in turn further increases income inequality. Per capita income increases does not assure increased income for all. Fonte: http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/Piketty2013GraphiquesTableauxLiens.pdf

15. Increasing inequality? (2) In so called “emerging countries”, the situation is not better.

16. Earth atmosphere is increasingly CO2-rich, leading to progressive (and unknown) climate changes: Source: Earth System Research Laboratory, U.S. Department of Commerce and National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends / b. Climate change

17. Who emits GHGs. Source: IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf

18. CO2 map Fonte: http://www.carbonmap.org/#

19. Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6: Very strong mitigation (- 40/70% emiss. al 2050); RCPa 8.5: Business as Usual. Different climate change scenarios under alternative RCPs Source IPCC, 2014

20. Climate change and agricultural yields Aggregation of 1090 studies on yields under climate change (mostly carried out on wheat, maize, rice e soybeans, under different climate change scenarios) Source: IPCC, 2014

21. 21 3. Messages

22. First message 1.Achieving Zero hunger by 2030 (SDG 2) is possible, but requires improving income distribution via social protection and pro poor income generating investment both in rural and urban areas

23. Around 145 billion US$ needed to get people out of extreme poverty (defined at 1.25 US$ PPP + 40% buffer) Additional income requiremetns to achieve zero hunger by 2030 Source: Achieving Zero Hunger: FAO UN, IFAD, WFP –Rome http://www.fao.org/3/a- i4951e.pdfhttp://www.fao.org/3/a- i4951e.pdf

24. Investing to achieve zero hunger by 2030 Source: Achieving Zero Hunger: FAO UN, IFAD, WFP –Rome http://www.fao.org/3/a- i4951e.pdfhttp://www.fao.org/3/a- i4951e.pdf Annual average investment: 265 billion US$, out of which 67 for social protection and 198 for pro-poor productive activities.

25. Second message: Climate change mitigation The need to increase the agricultural production can be addressed by reducing food losses and waste, and consumer education. However, constraints on natural resources require sustainably maintaining current yields and expanding them to cope with increasing demand, as long as this materializes. Climate changes reduce yields in the long run, particularly in regions where food is most in need. Climate change mitigation is a long-run requirement that implies immediate action: research, investment but, most of all, political will. This is a condition to ensure sustainable universal and permanent food and nutrition security.

26. Work in progress World Food and Agriculture Towards 2050-80 (FAT 2080): Challenges and global perspectives. www.fao.org http://www.fao.org/economic/esa/ esa-activities/perspectives/en/