1. W.C. Rusty Riese, PhD Adjunct Professor, Rice University

2. What are we being told? What are the data? What are the take-aways?

3. Mann “Hockey Stick” Curve

5. The Arctic is melting

6. Stumps have been thawing from beneath the Mendenhall Glacier for about 50 years, but recently, considerably more have been found in upright positions with roots still intact. LiveScience, 9/20/2013 Glaciers are retreating

7. Sea levels will rise

8. Coastal cities will be inundated

9. Tropical storms numbers and intensity will increase

10. Tornados will become more frequent and intense

11. Precipitation will increase in frequency and severity

12. Famines will kill millions of people

13. But what do the data show?

18. The most common reference points are 1820, 1850, or 1880 1820 Corresponds to the end of the “Little Ice Age”

19. If we change the reference point to the Medieval Maximum Then we are only just recovering from the “Little Ice Age”

20. Not Medieval Climate Crisis Medieval Climate Optimum

21. Modern Climate Optimum Why Call This A Climate Crisis?

22. Average Temperature Profiles Differ Slightly by Agency NASAHadley NOAA

23. New Zealand Processed Data New Zealand Raw Data Data Manipulation

26. So, is the Arctic melting?

30. Are glaciers retreating?

33. Archeologists from the Danish National Museum have now proven that Eric the Red, who founded the Icelandic settlement in Greenland at the end of the tenth century AD, and his contemporaries were able to brew ale* DailyNews, 1/30/2012 A barley field in Iceland. Photo by Páll Stefánsson

34. Jan. 23, 2013 — A new study provides surprising details on changes in Earth's climate during the last warm period (120,000-128,000 years ago). Even though temperatures in Northern Greenland were 5-8 degrees Celsius higher than today, the thickness of the ice sheet was only a few hundred meters lower. And this despite the fact that sea level was 4-8 metres higher than today. Science News & Niels Bohr Institute

35. Is sealevel rising? Increases are following the 150 year trend

36. Have tropical storms become more frequent or intense?

37. Have tornados become more frequent and intense?

38. Has precipitation changed in intensity or severity?

40. So, does atmospheric CO2 really drive climate change?

43. 5 th IPCC report, January 30, 2014

46. Christopher Monckton, WUWT, 9/11/2013

49. CET temperatures have been plummeting over the last 13 years (fall 2013 data not included). Chart by Ed Hoskins, data source: UK Met Office. - See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/12/no-warming-left-to-deny-global-cooling-takes- over-cet-annual-mean-temperature-plunges-1c-since-2000/#sthash.ZF1mvbNI.dpuf

50. Mann “Hockey Stick” Curve WRONG

51. What then is driving climate change?

53. After Svensmark re Laken et al. 2010 Image: Jo Nova

58. Just the Facts Global Warming Sea Level Increase Historical rate of 0.07 inches/year not catastrophic May go down No more droughts or storms than normal Ice melting is normal for interglacial periods

59. Just the Facts Global Warming CO 2 Is Not The Cause of Global Warming Temperature increases cause CO 2 increases Solar Activity Has a Stronger Impact Changes in Oceanic Circulation Have a Stronger Impact

60. Just the Facts Global Warming From mid 1800’s to 1998 Temperatures increased 0.8 o C From 1998 to 2007 Temperatures were flat From 2007 to 2012 Temperatures fell 0.02 to 0.03 o C CAUTION: Above Statements based on Global Averages

61. The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas about Spitzbergen and the eastern Arctic, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto unheard-of high temperatures in that part of the earth's surface. The Arctic is Melting 1922

62. “…A change in our climate is taking place very sensibly." Snowfall has become "less frequent and less deep." Rivers that once "seldom failed to freeze over in the course of the winter, scarcely ever do so now." And this is having an especially worrisome effect on the food supply: "This change has produced an unfortunate fluctuation between heat and cold, in the spring of the year, which is very fatal to fruits." "Notes on the State of Virginia" by Thomas Jefferson, 1785.

63. “No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.” Albert Einstein

67. Extra slides

70. Actual Average Temperature Scaled in whole Degrees Global Mean Temperatures: 1880 - 2003 John Grisham, Source; NASA

71. arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeserie s.anom.1979-2008

74. The Arctic is melting Glaciers are retreating Sea levels will rise Coastal cities will be inundated Tropical storms numbers and intensity will increase Tornados will become more frequent and intense Precipitation will increase in frequency and severity Famines will kill millions of people

75. Greenland was Green when it was discovered in 876 Greenland Ice Disappearing Headlines Been There, Done That 876

76. Antarctic sea ice extent on September 22 compared to 1981-2010 median depicted by orange curve (NSIDC)

78. Global Warming Real Crisis? Alarmist Hype? Fraud? Climategate