1. United Nations Statistics Division Handbook on data template and metadata for short-term statistics Expert Group Meeting on Short-Term Economic Statistics in Western Asia 16-18 February 2016 Amman, Jordan

2. Outline  Data template  Objectives of the handbook  Outline of the handbook  Status and way forward 2

3. 3 Data template  It consists of an internationally agreed list of short- term statistics for use in Macroeconomic surveillance Early warning of economic and financial vulnerabilities Detection of turning points in business cycles Background

4. 4 Data template  It is the result of a consultation process with experts and countries on the availability, periodicity, timeliness and dissemination of short- term statistics  A global assessment was undertaken by UNSD in 2009 to gain insight in the availability of short-term statistics in countries and their data dimensions in terms of periodicity, timeliness and dissemination  All UN Member States were invited to participate in the assessment  It was discussed and endorsed at the UN Statistical Commission in 2011 Background

5. Short-term statistics are organized in 12 categories: –National accounts –Production and turnover –Prices –Labour market indicators –External sector –Financial corporations sector –General government sector –Household sector –Non-financial corporations sector –Financial market –Real estate market –Tendency indicators –Composite Business Cycle indicators Data template 5 Macroeconomic growth and stability Sectoral vulnerabilities and developments Market conditions Economic sentiment Structure and content

6. Data template Short-term statistics are organized into 3 Tiers:  Tier 1 consists of the minimum required short- term statistics that have strategic importance and are widely available  Tier 2 consists of analytically important short-term statistics that are less widely available  Tier 3 contains short-term statistics that have national significance, given the structure of the economy 6 Structure and content

7. Data template  Each statistic presents a recommended/encouraged periodicity Quarterly Monthly and Timeliness 7 Structure and content

8. Set 1: National Accounts 8 Set 1: National accounts Tier Frequency Timeliness 1.1 Quarterly national accounts: Flash GDP estimate Tier 1Quarterly 1M 1.2 Quarterly national accounts: GDP full release 1.2.1by expenditureTier 1Quarterly 1Q (SDDS) 1.2.2by productionTier 1Quarterly 1Q (SDDS) 1.2.3by incomeTier 2Quarterly 1Q (SDDS) 1.3Quarterly sector accountsTier 3Quarterly 1Q (SDDS)

9. Set 2: Production and turnover 9 TierFrequencyTimeliness 2.1 Production index for industry, by major division (mining, manufacturing, electricity, water, etc.) Tier 1Monthly 6-12 W (GDDS) 6W, 1M encouraged (SDDS) 2.2Production index for constructionTier 2Monthly 6-12 W (GDDS) 6W, 1M encouraged (SDDS) 2.3 Turnover index for retail trade by major division Tier 2Monthly 1M (SDDS) 2.4Turnover index for industry by major divisionTier 2Monthly 1M (SDDS) 2.5 Turnover index for other services by major division (excluding financial services and non- commercial services) Tier 2Monthly 1M (SDDS) 2.6 New orders index for industry by major ISIC division (for those that work on order) Tier 3Monthly 1M (SDDS) 2.7 New orders index for construction (building permits or housing starts) Tier 2Monthly 1M (SDDS) 2.8Commodity production as relevant and other indicators of economic activity Tier 3Monthly 6-12W (GDDS) 6W, 1M encouraged (SDDS)

10. Set 2: Production and turnover 10 Set 2: Production and turnover TierFrequencyTimeliness 2.8 Commodity production as relevant and other indicators of economic activity Tier 3Monthly 6-12W (GDDS) 6W, 1M encouraged (SDDS) Agricultural products 6-12W (GDDS) 6W, 1M encouraged (SDDS) Minerals 6-12W (GDDS) 6W, 1M encouraged (SDDS) New car registrations/sales 6-12W (GDDS) 6W, 1M encouraged (SDDS) New commercial vehicle registrations/sales 6-12W (GDDS) 6W, 1M encouraged (SDDS) Tourist arrivals 6-12W (GDDS) 6W, 1M encouraged (SDDS)

11. Set 3: Prices Set 4 :Labour market 11 Set 3: Prices TierFrequencyTimeliness 3.1Consumer price indexTier 1Monthly 1-2M (GDDS) 1M (SDDS) 3.2Producer price indexTier 1Monthly 1-2M (GDDS) 1M (SDDS) 3.3Import price indexTier 1Monthly 2-3W 3.4Export price indexTier 1Monthly 2-3W Set 4: Labour market 4.1UnemploymentTier 1Quarterly 1Q (SDDS) 4.2Unemployment rateTier 1Quarterly 1Q (SDDS) 4.3 Employment total and by economic activity Tier 1Quarterly 1Q (SDDS) 4.4Hourly wage rateTier 2Quarterly 1Q (SDDS) 4.5Hours of workTier 2Quarterly 1Q (SDDS)

12. Set 5: External sector Tier FrequencyTimeliness 5.1Exports and imports (of goods and services) Tier 1Monthly 8-12W (GDDS) 8W, 4-6W encouraged (SDDS) 5.2International investment position (IIP), specify balances and components Tier 2Quarterly 1Q (SDDS) 5.3Official reserve assetsTier 1Monthly 1-4W, 1W encouraged (GDDS) 1W (SDDS) 5.4External debt (by sector, maturity and foreign currency) Tier 1Quarterly 3-6M (GDDS) 1Q (SDDS) 12

13. Set 6: Financial corporations sector Tier FrequencyTimeliness 6.1Central Bank net foreign assetsTier 1Monthly 2W (SDDS) 6.2Central Bank domestic lendingTier 1Monthly 2W (SDDS) 6.3Central Bank reserve moneyTier 1Monthly 1-2M (GDDS) 2W (SDDS) 6.4Depository corporations net foreign assetsTier 1Monthly 1-3M (GDDS) 1M (SDDS) 6.5Depository corporations domestic lendingTier 1Monthly 1M (SDDS) 6.6Depository corporations broad money liabilities Tier 1Monthly 1M (SDDS) 6.7Other financial corporations balance sheet, assets and liabilities by sector. Tier 2Monthly 1M (SDDS) 6.8Financial corporate profitsTier 2Quarterly 1Q 6.9Financial corporate debtTier 2Monthly 1Q 6.10Others as relevant: nonperforming loans of depository corporations, capital adequacy ratios, other financial stability indicators, etc. Tier 3Monthly 1Q 13

14. Set 7: General government sector 14 Set 7: General government sector TierFrequencyTimeliness 7.1RevenueTier 1Monthly 2Q, 1Q encouraged (SDDS) 7.2ExpenseTier 1Monthly 2Q, 1Q encouraged (SDDS) 7.3 Net operating balance (= Revenue – Expense) Tier 1Monthly 2Q, 1Q encouraged (SDDS) 7.4 Net acquisition of non-financial assets Tier 2Quarterly 2Q, 1Q encouraged (SDDS) 7.5ExpenditureTier 2Quarterly 2Q, 1Q encouraged (SDDS) 7.6 Net lending/net borrowing (= Revenue - Expenditure) Tier 2Quarterly 2Q, 1Q encouraged (SDDS) 7.7Gross debtTier 2Quarterly 4M (SDDS)

15. Set 8: Household sector Set 9: Non-financial corporation sector 15 Set 8: Household sector TierFrequencyTimeliness 8.1Household disposable incomeTier 2Quarterly 1Q (SDDS) 8.2Household savingTier 2Quarterly 1Q (SDDS) 8.3Household debtTier 2Quarterly 1Q (SDDS) 8.4 Other as relevant: household debt service and principal payments, and defaults on home mortgages, credit card debt and car loans etc. Tier 3Quarterly 1Q (SDDS) Set 9: Non-financial corporations sector 9.1Non-financial corporate profitsTier 3Quarterly 1Q (SDDS) 9.2Non-financial corporate debtTier 3Quarterly 1Q (SDDS) 9.3Other as relevant: net foreign exchange exposure, and the number of applications for protections from creditors, etc. 1Q

16. Set 10: Financial market 16 Set 10: Financial market TierFrequencyTimeliness 10.1 Interest rates, as relevant short and long term money and bond market rates Tier 1Monthly No timeliness recommendation is presented given that the data are widely available from private sources. 10.2 Exchange rates, as relevant spot and forward markets Tier 1Monthly No timeliness recommendation is presented given that the data are widely available from private sources 10.3 Nominal and real effective exchange rate Tier 1Monthly 2M 10.4Stock market indicatorsTier 1Monthly No timeliness recommendation is presented given that the data are widely available from private sources 10.5Others as relevant : spreads between lending and deposit rates, highest-lowest interbank rate; etc. No timeliness recommendation is presented given that the data are widely available from private sources

17. Set 11: Real estate market Set 12: Economic sentiment 17 Set 11: Real estate market TierFrequency Timeliness 11.1Residential property price indexTier 2Quarterly 1Q (SDDS Plus) 11.2New house salesTier 3Monthly 1M 11.3Existing house salesTier 3Monthly 1M Set 12: Economic sentiment 12.1Consumer confidenceTier 2Monthly 1M (SDDS) 12.2Business confidenceTier 2Monthly 1M (SDDS) 12.3 Composite Business Cycle Indicators 1M (SDDS) 12.3.1Leading IndicatorTier 3Monthly 1M (SDDS) 12.3.2Coincident IndicatorTier 3Monthly 1M (SDDS) 12.3.3Lagging IndicatorTier 3Monthly 1M (SDDS)

18. Objectives of the handbook  Presents an internationally-endorsed data template and metadata for short-term statistics for the purpose of macroeconomic surveillance, early warning of economic and financial vulnerabilities and detection of turning points in business cycles  To provide methodological guidance on the calculation of the indicators and their use  To describe the statistical and analytical properties of short-term statistics Why they are relevant in explaining economic activity How they relate to an integrated set of short-term economic statistics of quarterly national accounts and component data  Target audience Compilers and users of short-term statistics 18

19. Outline of the handbook Chapter 1: Data template for short-term statistics Chapter 2: Statistical standards, recommendations and compilation guidance for short-term statistics Chapter 3: Metadata structure for the data template for short-term statistics Chapter 4: Analytical indicators Chapter 5: National data hubs for short-term statistics Chapter 6: Implementing the data template for short- term statistics 19

20. Outline of the handbook  Presents the data template  Describes scope and coverage, and the analytical and statistical framework  Relates the data template with other frameworks for short-term statistics Principal European economic indicators Principal global indicators UN ESCAP’s core set of economic statistics UN ESCWA’s core set of priority short-term economic indicators 20 Chapter 1: Data template for short-term statistics

21. Chapter 2: Statistical standards, recommendations and compilation guidance  Provides overview of statistical standards and compilation guidance  Describes data sources and collection methods  Repositories Knowledge Base on Economic Statistics ( http://unstats.un.org/unsd/EconStatKB/Knowledgebase.aspx ) http://unstats.un.org/unsd/EconStatKB/Knowledgebase.aspx Global Inventory on Statistical Standards ( http://unstats.un.org/unsd/iiss/MainPage.ashx ) http://unstats.un.org/unsd/iiss/MainPage.ashx 21 Outline of the handbook

22. Chapter 3: Metadata structure for the data template for short-term statistics  Provides overview of metadata Descriptive data about object  Explains need for statistical metadata Ensure transparency about the indicators which are disseminated Ensure harmonization in the content and structure of statistical data to be exchanged 22 Outline of the handbook

23. Chapter 3: Metadata structure for the data template for short-term statistics  Provides overview of statistical metadata standards Data Documentation Initiative (DDI) the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) and Special Data Dissemination Standard Plus (SDDS Plus) Statistical data and metadata exchange (SDMX)  Suggests metadata applicable to short-term statistics Need to be short and general to be valid for all countries Based on SDMX to support data exchange  Provides examples of metadata structure 23 Outline of the handbook

24. Chapter 4: Analytical indicators  Explores in more detail additional analytical indicators that can be derived from the indicators in the data template for further analysis  Presents and describes four groups of analytical indicators Growth rates Contributions to growth Ratio indicators Share indicators 24 Outline of the handbook

25. Chapter 5: National data hubs for short-term statistics  Explains the importance of a national data hub to centralize short-term statistics that follow international statistical standards, possibly produced by various institutions in a country, and to make them available at a single access point  Describes desired characteristics of data hubs and steps to be considered for their setup Definition of scope Timeliness and periodicity of data Metadata Data collection and dissemination Maintenance 25 Outline of the handbook

26.  Examples of benefits for national data hubs Improve access to core set of indicators Promote the harmonization of dissemination processes among institutions Foster the harmonization of concepts, definitions and statistical classifications among institutions in the country Can serve as an opportunity to streamline and coordinate statistical activities reducing duplication of work  Provides examples from countries KOrean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) Data portal of the United Arab Emirates Data hub in India 26 Chapter 5: National data hubs for short-term statistics

27. Country example: KOrean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) 27 Source: http://kosis.kr/eng/

28. Country example: Data portal of the United Arab Emirates 28 Source: National Bureau of Statistics UAE, at: http://dataportal.nbs.gov.ae/en

29. Country example: Data hub of India 29 Source: Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs http://www.finmin.nic.in/stats_data/nsdp_sdds/index.html

30. Chapter 6: Implementing the data template for short-term statistics  Draws upon the elements of the implementation programme for the 2008 SNA and supporting statistics  Provides strategies for establishing programme to implement data template which are based on the principles of Strategic planning Coordination, monitoring and reporting Improving statistical systems 30 Outline of the handbook

31.  Principles are operationalized through Use of national strategies for the development of statistics (NSDS) as the strategic planning framework A programme information structure built around the statistical production process, and compliance to various international standards and best practices Modalities of statistical capacity building such as enhanced dissemination channels and advocacy 31 Chapter 6: Implementing the data template for short-term statistics

32. Outline of the handbook  Handbook recommends the use of a self-assessment questionnaire to help countries assess the current capability of their national statistical system to compile the short-term statistics in the data template  Answers form the basis for an action plan to improve the availability, quality and timeliness of the short- term statistics 32 Chapter 6: Implementing the data template for short-term statistics

33. Outline of the handbook  For each short-term statistic in the data template, questions cover Dissemination and communication Metadata and data reporting Data sources Technical cooperation and capacity building 33 Chapter 6: Implementing the data template for short-term statistics

34. Status and way forward  Draft handbook was circulated for global consultation from November to December 2015  45 sets of comments have been received  Handbook is being revised to incorporate the comments, after which it will be sent for editing 34

35. 35 Thank you!