1. Methodology of estimating the annual number of usual resident population in Latvia Baiba Zukula Deputy Director of Social Statistics Department Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia

2. Content 1.Introduction 2.History of population estimations 3.New methodology of calculation of the number of population (since 2012) 4.The estimated number of population (at the beginning of 2016) 5.Conclusions 2

3. LATVIA 3 -Independent country since 1991; -EU country since 2004 (euro since 2014); -Number of population less than 2 mln -Territory – 64 m 2

4. Number of population in Latvia (1950-2016) 4 - 26 %

5. Population in Latvia at the beginning of 1990 and 2016 (by age and gender) 5

6. History of population estimations (I) Calculation of the number of population before the Population Census 2011: Data from the Population Register of the Office of Citizenship and Migration Affairs (OCMA) – monthly data received by CSB; Data from the Registry Offices – data on born or dead at the end of the year had to be added registration of birth – one month after birth allowed registration of death – 6 working days allowed 6

7. History of population estimations (II) Population Census 2011 allowed to update the number of population at the beginning of 2011 - 2 mln 75 thsd. The difference between Census and Population Register data - 155 thsd or about 7 % of the resident Latvian population registered in the Population Register. Reason - unregistered migration – according to the Population Register, usual residence of person – Latvia, however, according to the Census data – outside Latvia. 7

8. It was ascertained, that it is necessary to find out the ways how to estimate more precisely the number of population. The possible ways: To improve the data quality on usual residence in the Population Register; To evaluate methods applied by other countries; To work out a new method. 8

9. New methodology of calculation of the number of population (I) In 2012 the CSB worked out a new method for estimating the number of population. The method is based on: The Population Register, Other administrative register data. The aim of the method – to estimate the status of the actual or de facto place of residence at the beginning of the year for every resident registered (on individual level) in Latvia. 9

10. New methodology of calculation of the number of population (II) CSB has access to data from following administrative registers: State Revenue Service (SRS); State Social Insurance Agency (SSIA); Ministry of Education and Science (MES); Agricultural Data Centre (ADC); Rural Support Service (LRSS); National Health Service (NHS); State Employment Agency (SEA); Road Traffic Safety Directorate; Data on persons in imprisonment, in social care institutions; Information from local governments on social benefits paid; Biggest higher education institutions. 10

11. Certain conditions had to be taken into account: Estimation of the total number of population and also the international migration (immigration and emigration) is needed; Data on population is necessary in small groups (both for national and international data users): - by sex and age (one year age group); - by territorial units by three main age groups; - by regions by one year age group; - international long term emigration and immigration by sex, one year age group etc. 11

12. Calculation method (I) The aim of the model is to evaluate the de facto residence status of each individual registered in Latvia. The Logistic regression model had been developed to evaluate the residence status (model developed by Mathematical Support Division of CSB – Jeļena Vaļkovska, Mārtiņš Liberts). With the help of administrative register data, on each person registered within the Population Register there are more than 200 characteristics variables developed. 12

13. Calculation method (II) The aim of the model is to predict the probability of being a resident for each individual. Important – if the information about the person is in any register, it doesn’t mean that the person will be counted as usual resident. It just increase the probability! The model had been developed using data from 2011 Population Census (1 March 2011) on actual place of residence and data from administrative data sources on 2010, 1 January 2011 or 1 March 2011 (thus there should be no break down in series). 13

14. The number of population at the beginning of 2016 (Comparison of the Population Register (PR) and CSB estimation) 14

15. Evaluation of the preciseness of estimation of the number of population Comparison of the prepared evaluation with: respondents in CSB surveys (LFS, EU-SILC, EHSIS) In total we compared more than 200 thousand persons (10% of total number of population) at the beginning of 2015. Only about 1% were not included in the estimated number of population. 15

16. Conclusions (I) The evaluated number of population – official number of population in Latvia - is the only one used for national and international purposes. The CSB continues the work to improve preciseness of the worked out model. New individual data sources: -Personalized public transport tickets (used in the capital city); -Individual data from libraries; -Individual data on those who started studies abroad and received student loans for studies or living. 16

17. Conclusions (II) To evaluate the accuracy of the method Micro Census 2015 will be used. Probably the Micro Census 2015 will be used to update the model (model was developed based on 2011 Census). 17

18. Thank you! CSB methodology is available: http://www.csb.gov.lv/en/statistikas-temas/metodologija/number- population-and-key-demographic-indicators-36808.html (look for pdf file http://www.csb.gov.lv/sites/default/files/dati/demstat_metodologija_eng _gala.pdf)