1. The Prediction of the Export Numbers of Electronic Product of Taiwan from 2010 to 2012: Exemplified by 3C Products 1 Advisor : Hui-Wen Vivian Tang

2. Introduction  Purposes of the Study  Significance of Study  Research Questions Literature Review Method Result Analysis Recommendation & Conclusion 2

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4.  3C Computer, Communication and Consumer electronic  Grey Prediction Theory  Exporting numbers from 2010 to 2012 4

5. To predict the short-term trend of 3C products. To predict the proper number of 3C products. To find out the potential products in 2010-2012. To analyze the trend of exporting number by prediction result and influence. To recognize the solutions toward exporting number of 3C products and to apply them to related business, factory and company. 5

6.  From the investment point of view, Taiwan industry can use grey prediction to estimate their future development.  Researchers in different fields can use a very simple prediction model. 6

7.  Is there any fluctuation and tendency in the export statistics of the 3C products from 2010 to 2012?  According to the result to predict what are the most potential products from 2010 to 2012? Research Questions 7

8. “In 2000 export data, Taiwan’s agriculture exports are not only less than last year but also became mainly supply for domestic. Besides, the agriculture’s imports increased continually” (Hsu,2000). As the table shows: US$1,00019961997199819992000 出口值 Exportation 5,446,0003,885,7123,154,7604,077,8443,968,000 進口值 Importation 9,929,0009,953,3047,794,4107,859,1396,697,230 貿易總值 The Total Amount 15,375,00013,839,01610,949,18011,936,98310,640,300 Resource: The analysis of Taiwan agricultural food industry's imports and exports in 2000 8

9. The Export Rate of Electronic Products’ Growth from 1999 to 2009. 9

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11.  The observation of commodity trade structure, electronic occupied 36%, information and communication products occupied 13%. (the Minister of Finance, 2002)  The electronic products become the largest increase of major goods orders. The increase reaches to 19.2 %, followed by information and communications products, an increase of 14.12%. (the Minister of Finance, 2002) 11

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13.  The global rank of Taiwan’s notebook industry from 2005 to 2009. P.S. MBT=Made By Taiwan Source ： MIC Ministry of Economic Affairs, R.O.C ITIS program ， 2010/03 1. Notebook(laptop) 13 20052006200720082009 Productivity/yr (Thousand units)49,00763,45990,165112,383119,476 Global Share82.5%86.2%92.8%92.4%95.3% Global Rank11111

14.  The global rank of Taiwan desk-top computer industry from 2005 to 2009. Source ： MIC Ministry of Economic Affairs, R.O.C ITIS program ， 2010/03 14 20052006200720082009 Productivity/yr (Thousand units)38,84941,34246,05544,46146,067 Global Share30.1%30.3%32.6%33.8%38.9% Global Rank22221

15.  Taiwan’s digital still camera total productivity from 2005 to 2009. Source ： MIC Ministry of Economic Affairs, R.O.C ITIS program ， 2010/03 15

16. Source ： MIC Ministry of Economic Affairs, R.O.C ITIS program ， 2010/03 16

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18.  One kind of prediction tool in modern society.  Published from Dr. Deng in 1982.  White + Black = Grey  Does not need too much data. 18

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23.  The liner equations can be converted into the form of a matrix of:  Thus, the least square method is used to solve a and b 23

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25. 2007 From Jan., Apr., Jul. and Oct. January, 2007April, 2007July, 2007October, 2007 the amount of money % % % % Machinery and Electrical Engineering Device 3,037.446.93,148.548.13,385.248.83,604.248.6 Electronic Product 1,729.126.71,745.626.71,853.726.71,968.826.5 Information and Connection Product 213.73.3251.53.8272.23.9333.74.5 Consumer Appliance 16.70.317.60.319.70.317.90.2 25

26. From Jan., Apr., Jul. and Oct. January, 2008April, 2008July, 2008October, 2008 the amount of money % % % % Machinery and Electrical Engineering Device 3,197.744.63,007.244.13,110.044.83,113.346.6 Electronic Product 1,756.124.51,644.524.11,773.125.51,771.326.5 Information and Connection Product 258.03.6256.03.8259.23.7297.04.4 Consumer Appliance 18.40.320.00.318.60.317.90.3 26

27. From Jan., Apr., Jul. and Oct. January, 2009April, 2009July, 2009October, 2009 the amount of money % % % % Machinery and Electrical Engineering Device 1,851.845.32,374.347.62,670.247.03,099.748.5 Electronic product 980.024.01,439.228.81,631.728.71,876.429.4 Information and Connection Product 202.04.9208.14.2259.74.6298.74.7 Consumer Appliance 10.20.215.20.316.50.315.20.2 27

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30. 30 Fluctuate tendency

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32. 32 Climb slightly

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39.  1. Grey Theory can be used in a long-term forecasting.  2. Grey Theory can be applied in different fields.  3. Grey Theory was limited to the Force Majeure or other incontrollable events. 39

40.  1.HSU, S.I. (2000). The analysis of Taiwan agricultural food industry's imports and exports in 2000. Food Marketing Information, (184), Retrieved from http://www2.thu.edu.tw/~foodpro/allnews/food2000.htmhttp://www2.thu.edu.tw/~foodpro/allnews/food2000.htm  2.WANG, S.W. (2001). What kind of goods does Taiwan export and to where?. EpochTimes, (15), Retrieved from http://tw.epochtimes.com/015/1496.htm http://tw.epochtimes.com/015/1496.htm  3.LUNG, L.C. (2006). Taiwan annual. World Ann World Annual, 6, doi: http://www7.www.gov.tw/todaytw/2006/TWtaiwan/ch06/2-6-1-0.html http://www7.www.gov.tw/todaytw/2006/TWtaiwan/ch06/2-6-1-0.html  4.WANG, C.M. (2004, December 28). Taiwan economic analysis during 2004 to 2005. Retrieved from http://big5.china.com.cn/chinese/TCC/haixia/740319.htm http://big5.china.com.cn/chinese/TCC/haixia/740319.htm 40

41.  5.Taiwan bicycle exports comparison between 2006 and 2006. (2006). Retrieved from http://www.tbea.org/chinese/month_export/bs/bs9510-2.htmhttp://www.tbea.org/chinese/month_export/bs/bs9510-2.htm  6.THE ECONOMIST INT TELLIGENCE UNIT. (2008, December 12). Taiwan economy: quick view - export revenue contracts. The Economist, Retrieved from http://www.cw.com.tw/article/index.jsp?id=36366http://www.cw.com.tw/article/index.jsp?id=36366  7.CHENG, C.F., CHEN, M.Y., HUANG, W.C., & LI, H.F. (2009, May 22). The worst first quarter which shrink 10.24%. Retrieved from http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2009/new/may/22/today-t1.htm http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2009/new/may/22/today-t1.htm  8.MIC,. (Ed.). (2001). Taiwan's 3C industry present development situation and the prospect of the future. Institute for Information Industry MIC.  9.2010 Information Industry Edit Group, Initials. Ministry of Economic Affairs, R.O.C, (2010). 2010 Information Industry Almanac (1009902229) Ministry of Economic Affairs, R.O.C. 41

42. The Prediction of the Export Numbers of Electronic Product of Taiwan from 2010 to 2012: Exemplified by 3C Products 42 Advisor : Hui-Wen Vivian Tang