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STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY México IHA Secretariat Washington D.C. United States February, 2016.

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Presentation on theme: "STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY México IHA Secretariat Washington D.C. United States February, 2016."— Presentation transcript:

1 STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY México IHA Secretariat Washington D.C. United States February, 2016

2 2 STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY (México) 43 Delegations +18 Offices 10,800 member companies

3 2- HOUSING ECONOMIC STATISTICS: STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY (México) StartsPercentagesNumbers Total housing register351,129 Single FamilyUnifamiliar (41.3%)145,149 Multifamily DUPLEX (17.3%)60,626 Multifamiliar Horizontal (12.8%) 44,787 Multifamiliar Vertical (28.2%)99,055 Triplex (0.4%)1,512 Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2015 USD$ 2.2 trillions * GDP Growth % Real Change 3Q 2015 /3Q 2014: 2.51% Prepared by Management of Housing and Urban Development, CMIC. 3 * Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP)

4 2- HOUSING ECONOMIC STATISTICS: STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY (México) StartsPercentagesNumbers GDP Per Capita: 2015 Total population: 121,087,280 $18,335 USD * House Price Index (3Q Quarter) EconomicUp to 19,010 USD Popular From 19,011 USD to 32,221 USD Traditional From 32,222 USD to 56,387 USD Medium From 56,388 USD to120,832 USD Residential & Plus From120,833 USD to 241,665 USD Consumer Price Index 0.4% month (2.1% year) December, 2015 Unemployment 4.4% December, 2015 Prepared by Management of Housing and Urban Development, CMIC. 4 * Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP)

5 2- HOUSING ECONOMIC STATISTICS: STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY (México) StartsPercentagesNumbers Home Mortgage Interest Rate 10.15% Simple Average Banxico Home Ownership Rate.60.4% Average annual population growth. 2005-2015 1.4% Y-Y Prepared by Management of Housing and Urban Development, CMIC. 5

6 3- ECONOMIC AND/OR POLITICAL CONDITIONS: STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY (México) FactorExpectations earlier 2015At the end of 2015 (Real) GDP Growth3.8% 2.5% Private Consumer Growth 3.5% 3.2% Exchange Rate15 pesos per dollar 17.2 pesos per dollar (- 14.6%) Exports Growth 6.2% 3.2% Oil Price 79 dollars per barrel37.04 dollars per barrel Public Investment USD$65,762 millions USD$57,941 millions Prepared by Management of Housing and Urban Development, CMIC. 6

7 7 STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY (México) Estimate Projections: Gross Domestic Product (Real annual % variation) Source: Centro de Estudios Economicos del Sector de la Construcción (CEESCO ) of CMIC with data from International Monetary Fund (IMF)

8 8 3- HOW HAVE ECONOMIC AND/OR POLITICAL CONDITIONS CHANGED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2015? Mexico has faced a complex global environment over the last year, characterized by a rise in global financial market volatility and the collapse of oil prices. Nonetheless, the economy has continued to grow at a moderate pace, and capital outflow pressures have been limited. The flexible exchange rate has helped the economy adjust to external shocks, while inflation has remained low and stable. The Mexican peso has depreciated by 16 percent in real effective terms in the last twelve months. Mexico is implementing a broad range of structural reforms, which should help lift potential growth over the medium term. Construction to grew by 2.5 percent in 2015. Construction activity has moderated after a strong rebound in the second half of last year. Manufacturing and services remain the main driver of growth, although weaker-than-expected U.S. demand affected manufacturing exports in early 2015. A fall in domestic oil production continues to be a drag on growth. Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate modestly to 2.5 percent in 2016, supported by strengthening external demand. Lower electricity prices and the real depreciation of the peso should boost Mexico’s manufacturing production and exports, with positive spillovers to domestic demand. 4- HOW HAVE THESE AND RELATED INSTANCES OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKET TURBULENCE, INCLUDING THE SLUMP IN COMMODITY PRICES, PARTICULARLY OIL, IMPACTED YOUR HOUSING MARKET? STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY (México)

9 9 Mexico faced a complex global environment last year. International oil prices declined by more than 50 percent since mid-2014. The drop in oil prices has had a limited impact on the current account as Mexico has a broadly balanced trade in hydrocarbons. However, it increased the fiscal consolidation burden and might affect prospects for private investment in the oil sector in the medium term. In addition, emerging market asset prices were hit by a rise in global financial volatility and a portfolio shift away from emerging markets. As a consequence, the Mexican peso has depreciated sharply against the US dollar since mid-2014, prompting the Foreign Exchange Commission to put in place a rules-based foreign exchange intervention program. Despite the increase in asset price volatility, economic activity continues to grow at a steady pace, and inflation remains low and stable. In the context of high financial market volatility, policies in Mexico remain focused on maintaining strong fundamentals and safeguarding financial stability. The flexible exchange rate has helped the economy adjust to external shocks. The authorities have reiterated their commitment to reduce public sector deficits and stabilize public debt. Continued implementation of a broad range of structural reforms would help lift potential growth over the medium term. 5- IF THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DYNAMICS DESCRIBED ABOVE HAVE IMPACTED YOUR MARKET, DO YOU EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO NORMALIZE BY YEAR END? Yes__________No______X__ 6- IF YOUR MARKET HAS BEEN IMMUNE TO THESE DYNAMICS TO DATE, DO YOU EXPECT TO SEE AN IMPACT ON YOUR HOUSING MARKET BEFORE THE YEAR IS OVER? Yes___________No___X_____ STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY (México)

10 10 Information Sources (México) Click on the image for more information

11 THANK YOU. IHA Secretariat


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